Convection Near Bahamas

[rockyman]

A personal weather station around the Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas is reporting a lower pressure of around 1003 to 1005mb this morning. I'm suspect of this because the ASOS station at Freeport not that far to west is reporting a much higher pressure of around 1015 to 1017mb and it's been consistently lower than other reporting stations. I also see no signs of a LLC under that cluster of the thunderstorms NE of the Bahamas yet

http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... 78066.html

Yep...I think that barometer needs calibrating...if you look at the history...it shows abnormally low pressures all the time.

[cycloneye]

DEEP CYC OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST DAYS 2/3...
THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORMING A POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS OVR ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS AND ITS WWD
DRIFT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF ITS PAST 24 HRS OF RUNS
PROGRESSION-WISE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER/SLOWER/MORE
SLY W/THIS SYS OVR ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS BEEN
BOUNCING ARND ITS CURRENT SOLN.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Above is the HPC discussion about the model solutions for this area.

[jabber]

Sure wish they would move a floater....

[CHRISTY]

Deep Convection continues to flare up around the bahamas.....Here is an IR loop.

[wxman57]

Pressures remain very high from the Bahamas northeastward - 1018 to 1020mb. There is strong anticyclonic circulation at the surface - no evidence of any low at the surface. It's just thunderstorms developing southeast of an upper low at this time. Shear may drop off in 36 hours though. If any storms remain, then there could be a slim chance of development.

I'll post a 15Z plot of 1K visible satellite with surface obs next hour. Meanwhile, here's a 12Z plot. Note that the 30kt westerly wind by the ship with a 1020mb pressure is an outflow from the thunderstorms to its west.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif

[CHRISTY]

Guys jeff masters believes Tropical developement is possible...he said this area needs to be watched starting thursday.so iam gonna be watching for sure.

[boca]

The Bahamas system is no longer a bahamas system since its moving east away from the Bahamas. It might develop in the middle of the Atlantic but probably not effect anyone.

[caneman]

The Bahamas system is no longer a bahamas system since its moving east away from the Bahamas. It might develop in the middle of the Atlantic but probably not effect anyone.

boca,

you're killin me here. First, I see know evidence of this mess moving out to sea. Perhaps you're confused about the blowoff clouds. And second, all models I've seen want to take some type of rain event thru Florida. PLease provide some facts, links, etc....

[boca]

The facts are the trough along the east coast is still having some pull NE on the system and its been moving that way for 24 hours now. Caneman I really want this system to move west across Florida and dump rain on us for 3 days since its so dry in a typically wet June were suppose to have. I'm just looking at the sat and I'm really hoping the Bermuda high kicks in and drives this system west as a wave across Florida as a good rain maker.

[rockyman]

Here's the reason the system may sit and spin:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

The Bermuda high is trying to connect with a high over the SE...but there is still somewhat of a weakness in between...most of the global models forecast the Bermuda high to strengthen and move back west...and with no major troughs in the forecast for 5 days, the system would be pushed west toward Florida, then NW around the SW perimeter of the high...

[Thunder44]

The facts are the trough along the east coast is still having some pull NE on the system and its been moving that way for 24 hours now. Caneman I really want this system to move west across Florida and dump rain on us for 3 days since its so dry in a typically wet June were suppose to have. I'm just looking at the sat and I'm really hoping the Bermuda high kicks in and drives this system west as a wave across Florida as a good rain maker.

You are watching strong SW shear blowing off the the tops of the thunderstorms to the NE. But the upper-level trough causing that isn't moving much anywhere. It could eventually work it's way down to the surface somewhere east of Florida by this weekend.

[CHRISTY]

Here's the reason the system may sit and spin:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

The Bermuda high is trying to connect with a high over the SE...but there is still somewhat of a weakness in between...most of the global models forecast the Bermuda high to strengthen and move back west...and with no major troughs in the forecast for 5 days, the system would be pushed west toward Florida, then NW around the SW perimeter of the high...

i agree rockyman right now this system isnt moving much and it will likely be pushed westward by the high.

[rockyman]

1130 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

[CHRISTY]

1130 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

Notice now they dropped ''NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOPE'' and now they say ''CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE''.

[stormtruth]

1130 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

Notice now they dropped ''NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOPE'' and now they say ''CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE''.

That's a significant change. Next it could be something like... conditions may become more favorable over the next couple days.

[SouthFloridawx]

Different forecasters say different things but, personally "not expected to develope" and "currently not favorable" mean basically the same thing.

[Aquawind]

Different forecasters say different things but, personally "not expected to develope" and "currently not favorable" mean basically the same thing.

Badda Bing..

[melhow]

Well, my ears perk up when John Winters on WFLA Channel 8 says an area "isn't likely to develop, but bears watching" then gives the the viewing area a 20% or less chance of rain for the five day outlook... Every time he says that, boom, development. He said that about this area this AM during the Today Show breaks. Also, I'm heading to West Palm this weekend for a baby shower, so you can betcha if I'm planning a trip to the general area, there will be some sort of rain event. I am a crappy weather magnet.

[CHRISTY]

conditions are suppose to become a bit more favorable starting tommorow....so my interest in this area remains.

This is from Jeff Masters Blog...

The tropics remain quiet today, but that may start to change on Thursday. An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with a non-tropical low pressure system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Currently, the disturbance is embedded in an area of strong vertical wind shear of about 15 - 25 knots, but a small area of lower shear is expected to develop over the Bahamas starting on Thursday.

[Thunder44]

1130 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

Notice now they dropped ''NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOPE'' and now they say ''CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE''.

I think we should try not to read more in the what TPC actually says in their TWOs. We already know enough from here the potential this system has for development over the weekend.