Convection Near Bahamas

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z NAM showing an organized area of low pressure off the east coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

If something does form out there it will be a Carolina to N FL event.

[CHRISTY]

Iam not really agreeing on location but here's the NAM.

[SouthFloridawx]

Iam not really agreeing on location but here's the NAM.

Why aren't you agreeing on the location?

[CHRISTY]

Iam not really agreeing on location but here's the NAM.

Why aren't you agreeing on the location?

well for right now there's 30 to 40 knot shear in the area,so for the next couple of days iam not expecting much and also this feature might move north some but at the same time it might move SW as the high builds back in.

[boca]

System has been moving NNE for 24 hours now because of the trough off the east coast. If it does develop I don't think its a system for S FL. Although I wish I were wrong because of the rain deficits.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well as I see it, there is nothing much to forecast cause there isn't currently a tropical system in that area right now. As the models are indicating this possible formation will probably not occur for another 72-120 hours. Different models are indicating development of varying stregths and positions. We'll have to see if the convection can persist and an LLC can form in the coming days. I don't believe that anything is immenant now but, I like watching the models to see what kind of patterns of development they are showing. I'm not taking one model and saying it's wrong cause if you look at a bunch of models you can see a pattern or trend. I think that is what you want to look for when trying to spot these things out. Let's see what the other models show in the next couple of days and certainly if the shear weakens and convection persists then we'll have somethinon our hands.

[CHRISTY]

Well as I see it, there is nothing much to forecast cause there isn't currently a tropical system in that area right now. As the models are indicating this possible formation will probably not occur for another 72-120 hours. Different models are indicating development of varying stregths and positions. We'll have to see if the convection can persist and an LLC can form in the coming days. I don't believe that anything is immenant now but, I like watching the models to see what kind of patterns of development they are showing. I'm not taking one model and saying it's wrong cause if you look at a bunch of models you can see a pattern or trend. I think that is what you want to look for when trying to spot these things out. Let's see what the other models show in the next couple of days and certainly if the shear weakens and convection persists then we'll have somethinon our hands.

i agree southfloridawx on your thoughts....

[boca]

Good point its a wait and see game right now.

[spinfan4eva]

From the local news site Fox 30 in Jacksonville, Fla:

http://www.fox30online.com/talkingtropi ... 163C017439

A persistent upper level low pressure continues near/over the Bahamas with quite a bit of thunderstorm activity. There is obvious southwesterly shear right now & the system is even getting nudged a little northeast. But forecast models are picking up on some kind of system developing near Florida this coming weekend into early next week. Now it's highly debateable about where this system comes from, how it moves & whether or not it's actually tropical. A couple of models seem to develop low pressure from the convection now near the Bahamas while other models pick up on a northwest-moving tropical wave -- that's now in the Eastern Caribbean -- taking it towards Florida Sunday-Monday. Whatever happens, it looks like tropical moisture will surge across Florida & the First Coast Sunday into early next week with the potential for some pretty widespread heavy downpours. Given the above scenario, any tropical development would be very slow to occur, if at all though the situation bears watching.

[CHRISTY]

From the local news site Fox 30 in Jacksonville, Fla:

http://www.fox30online.com/talkingtropi ... 163C017439

A persistent upper level low pressure continues near/over the Bahamas with quite a bit of thunderstorm activity. There is obvious southwesterly shear right now & the system is even getting nudged a little northeast. But forecast models are picking up on some kind of system developing near Florida this coming weekend into early next week. Now it's highly debateable about where this system comes from, how it moves & whether or not it's actually tropical. A couple of models seem to develop low pressure from the convection now near the Bahamas while other models pick up on a northwest-moving tropical wave -- that's now in the Eastern Caribbean -- taking it towards Florida Sunday-Monday. Whatever happens, it looks like tropical moisture will surge across Florida & the First Coast Sunday into early next week with the potential for some pretty widespread heavy downpours. Given the above scenario, any tropical development would be very slow to occur, if at all though the situation bears watching.

interesting!thanks for posting.

[spinfan4eva]

Forgot to say.... Bear watch has been issued by fox 30 online

[JamesFromMaine2]

Did some one say Bear Watch?

[curtadams]

If you step through it, you'll see the NAM assumes there is ALREADY a large LLC circulation, which it strengthens and tightens fairly aggressively for the next two days or so. It's got the whole complex of stormy weather for hundreds of miles E of the Bahamas moving cyclonically from the word go. I don't think that's right. We'll see pretty soon.

[Starburst]

Accuweather has also put out the

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z CMC


00Z GFS

[img]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/06062100/79.track.current.png
[/img]
NOGAPS 00Z

[img]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/06062100/90.track.current.png
[/img]
UKMET 00Z

[DESTRUCTION5]

PERSISTENT UPPER LOW (H5-H25) NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THEN SHIFT WESTWARD TO FL THIS WEEKEND. BOTH GFS
AND NAM-WRF DEVELOP A SFC LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY THU. THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS THERE NOW...ON THE
DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER FEATURE. BOTH MODELS
BRING THE SFC WAVE...A CLOSED SFC LOW...WEST TOWARD THE SE U.S. THIS
WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO...PREFERRING TO KEEP AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
MORE QUICKLY (AND FARTHER SOUTH) ACROSS S FL. ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY
IF THIS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE ATLANTIC BASINS "B" STORM (WHICH WOULD
BE BERYL) BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR. DEPENDING ON HOW VIGOROUS
THE SFC LOW BECOMES...THERE COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW THAN WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
INDICATING FOR FRI AND SAT.

Melbourne NWS On the boat

[ronjon]

Looks like the trough of low pressure near the Bahamas splits in two with a piece ejecting off to the NE with the southern end forming the eventual LLC according to the HPC. They have the LLC form just off the SE coast of FL on Sunday Morning and move NW across the peninsula to Crystal River by Monday. Not sure how this will play out, but Alberto formed in a similar situation with a trough splitting in two.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[Thunder44]

A personal weather station around the Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas is reporting a lower pressure of around 1003 to 1005mb this morning. I'm suspect of this because the ASOS station at Freeport not that far to west is reporting a much higher pressure of around 1015 to 1017mb and it's been consistently lower than other reporting stations. I also see no signs of a LLC under that cluster of the thunderstorms NE of the Bahamas yet

http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... 78066.html

[beachbum_al]

We need rain here too that a little system with just rain over Alabama would be nice. So while I am in Milton FL helping my sister move into her new house I guess I will not be able to keep up on what is going on.