Convection Near Bahamas

[wxman57]

I would agree that the disturbance east of the Bahamas may have a slight chance of development in 3-4 days once the upper low to its southwest weakens and moves out of the picture. That is, of course, if there is anything left in the way of thunderstorms by then. The GFS and ECMWF take a trof axis westward into NE FL or GA on Sunday. NOGAPS is a bit more agressive, taking a closed low across the northern FL Peninsula and into the NE Gulf toward SE LA. The 12Z Canadian develops a stronger low farther east and takes it northward out to sea.

Again, development chances appear to be low, maybe 10-15%. It's just something to keep an eye on later this week. And chances of significant development (strong TS or hurricane) appear to be very low.

[AJC3]

I would agree that the disturbance east of the Bahamas may have a slight chance of development in 3-4 days once the upper low to its southwest weakens and moves out of the picture. That is, of course, if there is anything left in the way of thunderstorms by then. The GFS and ECMWF take a trof axis westward into NE FL or GA on Sunday. NOGAPS is a bit more agressive, taking a closed low across the northern FL Peninsula and into the NE Gulf toward SE LA. The 12Z Canadian develops a stronger low farther east and takes it northward out to sea.

Again, development chances appear to be low, maybe 10-15%. It's just something to keep an eye on later this week. And chances of significant development (strong TS or hurricane) appear to be very low.

From what I can tell, the 18Z NGP is a little less gung ho with lowering surface pressures, but still showed a very wet system pushing westward into FL. I'm curious Chris, the SLP panels from the 12Z CNDN that I saw (meteocentre.com) appeared to take a 1012-ish surface low westward across FL instead of northward.

The only guidance I saw taking a trough or low northward (and into the heart of what should be a strengthening H50 ridge) is the 18Z NAM/DGEX, which looks spuriously too strong in spinning up the surface low.

The desert that used to be my backyard is rooting for a NGP-like solution.

[wxman57]

I would agree that the disturbance east of the Bahamas may have a slight chance of development in 3-4 days once the upper low to its southwest weakens and moves out of the picture. That is, of course, if there is anything left in the way of thunderstorms by then. The GFS and ECMWF take a trof axis westward into NE FL or GA on Sunday. NOGAPS is a bit more agressive, taking a closed low across the northern FL Peninsula and into the NE Gulf toward SE LA. The 12Z Canadian develops a stronger low farther east and takes it northward out to sea.

Again, development chances appear to be low, maybe 10-15%. It's just something to keep an eye on later this week. And chances of significant development (strong TS or hurricane) appear to be very low.

From what I can tell, the 18Z NGP is a little less gung ho with lowering surface pressures, but still showed a very wet system pushing westward into FL. I'm curious Chris, the SLP panels from the 12Z CNDN that I saw (meteocentre.com) appeared to take a 1012-ish surface low westward across FL instead of northward.

The only guidance I saw taking a trough or low northward (and into the heart of what should be a strengthening H50 ridge) is the 18Z NAM/DGEX, which looks spuriously too strong in spinning up the surface low.

The desert that used to be my backyard is rooting for a NGP-like solution.

Yep, you're right about the Canadian. I must have looked at something else and thought I remembered the Canadian taking it north. Just took a look at it again and it agrees with the EC and GFS in taking a weak wave west to northern FL.

[rockyman]

FWIW, Freeport now reporting south winds:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78062.html

[rockyman]

Could a center possibly be near this buoy? The winds have been going crazy since about 1pm (N, WNW, SSW, NE, WSW)...before that the winds were consistently from the E or ESE or ENE.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[AJC3]

Wouldn't get excited about it. Those wind reports are about 5 knots, within a few miles of each other, and there are showers around Grand Bahama Is. Mesoscale outflow boundaries from the shower activity would be the most likely explanation for the variablility in direction. You'll likely see these winds go back to east this evening, assuming the convection wanes.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing I wonder, could the TW now in the NE Carib. add moisture and energy? The ULL over S. FL could pull this TW and alot of its moisture northward.

[boca]

The ULL over S FL is ripping the system apart and pushing it ENE into the Atlantic so much for rain. Drought city for S FL.

[wzrgirl1]

don't worry.........we will get our share of rain this season........so much so that we will be complaining about it believe me

[boca]

June is our rainiest month. rainfall for June is 9' so far .20 for the month and its the 20th.

[spinfan4eva]

1030 TWO getting a littile more bullish on the system in the Bahamas:

530 outlook

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM.

1030 outlook

THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

So there may be some development now just not significant--weak TD maybe??

[SouthFloridawx]

Boca this is from the discussion at accuwx...

We continue to moditor the area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms located over the northern Bahamas and to the northeast of the northern most Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is associated with a weakening upper level trough that is generally between 70 west and 75 west. This upper level trough will break up into two parts. The northern most part will lift out to the northeast leaving the southern most part behind just northeast of Grand Bahama within the next 36 hours. When upper level troughs go through this splitting process the southern most part tends to become an upper level low. This feature will be sitting over warm water for the next few days and it might aquire tropical characteristics by the end of the week or during this coming weekend. The wind flow in the lower 10,000 feet is generally from the east and northeast. We refer to this as the steering flow for weak systems. So, based on this we expect this feature to eventually move westward toward Florida. Nearly all global computer models are showing some kind of weak feature forming in this general area and drifing into Florida this weekend. We can't tell for sure at this point whether this system will become an organized tropical system or remain a disorganized area of clouds and stormy weather. Either way it should bring the northern Bahamas unsetteld weather for the rest of this week and could bring Florida wet and perhaps stormy weather this weekend.

[wxman57]

Here's a GARP plot from 00Z. As you can see, pressures in the area are 1018-1020mb and absolutely no evidence of any cyclonic winds. Just high pressure at the surface.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif

[Tampa_God]

I don't know, one part of me is telling me this will form into something, but another part is saying heck no to development. Conditions now look unfavorable, but it looks like it will clear up by late week and maybe something forming. If it does form, maybe a west to WNW movement towards FL and into the Gulf. redevelopment after that. But this is just a guess, since nothing has formed.

[wxman57]

I don't know, one part of me is telling me this will form into something, but another part is saying heck no to development. Conditions now look unfavorable, but it looks like it will clear up by late week and maybe something forming. If it does form, maybe a west to WNW movement towards FL and into the Gulf. redevelopment after that. But this is just a guess, since nothing has formed.

Sounds reasonable. Big question is whether anything will be left of it by the time the shear dies out Friday or Saturday.

[SCMedic]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... =community

[CHRISTY]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/community_blog.asp?webcaster=community

interesting stuff from accuweather....

[CHRISTY]

There is a small flare up now closer were to me LLC might develope in the coming days....SEE

[spinfan4eva]

There is a small flare up now closer were to me LLC might develope in the coming days....SEE

By the looks of that satellite, we may very well see tomorrows 530AM TWO read

"Development if any will be slow to occur"

[Stormcenter]

There is a small flare up now closer were to me LLC might develope in the coming days....SEE

By the looks of that satellite, we may very well see tomorrows 530AM TWO read

"Development if any will be slow to occur"

You "may" be right.