Convection Near Bahamas

[SouthFloridawx]

The question is... how far south does the front make it. I have noticed that the Ukmet, GFS, NoGaps, CMC, Nam are showing vorticity...

It is possible that a Jeanne type situation could occur but, on a much weaker scale. I would bet that this trough doesn't hook up with the cold front and gets pulled north and eastward and then back towards the southeast. As the front pulls away and the ridge builds and pushes the "area" back towards the east.

Another possibility is some of the energy heading in west in front of the "front" towards florida causing increased instability and giving us some rain while the other portion of this energy is pushedfirst north and eastward and then back to the south east and then comes back towards the East Coast of the US. (Not necessarily florida)

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing resembling TC formation there at the present time, no need to be worried.

Just some rain for the FL Peninsula

[jusforsean]

can anybody post what the models are doing with this thing?

[SouthFloridawx]

can anybody post what the models are doing with this thing?

Well there is no low/mid level circulation to speak of to pinpoint anything. As derek pointed out at this time there is nothing to worry about.

If you are looking for forecast models you can find them here. Typically I stick with Sea Level Pressure and 850mb Vorticity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[CHRISTY]

If u look at the Water Vapor the wave seems embedded in the trough....its also being sheared NE but moving W or perhaps SW??

[MiamiensisWx]

I think there is a circulation, but is weak and a bit broad at this time.

[no advance]

No way does this disturbance resemble Francsis before landfall. That is a ridiculous statement. Before anyone writes something think about what you write.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on my above posts earlier in this topic, here is I think how the synoptics and system will play out...



Here are my posts I am basing this on...

This is certainly an interesting little system and synoptics. If you look at this visible loop, I think there may be a weak circulation trying to form a bit around Eleuthera, Cat Island, and the surrounding vicinity. Right now, the system/ULL is under weak steering currents under a low-level to mid-level ridge and ahead of an approaching trough from the northwest that is over the east-central United States. Even though shear is fairly high and may not permit much development and though the lower and upper levels are fairly dry, the synoptics could favor a relocation of the center on the south side of the system, which could allow for some (though not very significant) development, in an Arthur (1996), Franklin (2005), or similar scenario, as there is rather favorable diffluence and the still high shear has been decreasing a bit under the weak steering currents and ahead of the trough; otherwise, development may likely be less likely as the system does not get established with and within the synoptics and instead fizzles/gets sheared/joins up with the trough and/or dissipates.

Yes, I personally believe so, especially given the synoptics that steering currents may likely remain weak over the next 48 to 60 hours or so. As the system is under low-level to mid-level ridging and has/is separating from an old frontal system and ULL activity, of which it is still associated with; also, the convective activity is likely forming a new ULL and possible MLC/LLC (mid-level to low-level center of circulation). In between a new approaching trough and under ridging, the system is in a weak steering environment.

By the way, this system and the overall synoptics mentioned above in my other two posts remind me a lot of Franklin (2005) and some similar systems and scenarios... you can see it, as well as the synoptics in this scenario, by viewing this infra-red imagery. As the system is in a weak steering environment as the front and trough passes it to it's northwest and north and as it is under low-level to mid-level ridging, hence the somewhat erratic northward movement as the system interacts with the approaching trough/front in the weak steering environment. As the front bypasses it and approaches it, the system is likeky to be in a weak steering environment over the next 48 to 60 hours or so generally, especially as the possible center may reform on the southern side of the system a few times, given the synoptics.

[SouthFloridawx]

No way does this disturbance resemble Francsis before landfall. That is a ridiculous statement. Before anyone writes something think about what you write.

She meant in terms of convection... she didn't mean that it looked exactly like Frances.

[Damar91]

No way does this disturbance resemble Francsis before landfall. That is a ridiculous statement. Before anyone writes something think about what you write.

She said that it REMINDED her of Frances before landfall, and she is allowed to voice that opinion. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say this "nothing" looks better than Alberto ever did. Maybe you should give a member with over 4000 posts a little more respect!

[SouthFloridawx]

No way does this disturbance resemble Francsis before landfall. That is a ridiculous statement. Before anyone writes something think about what you write.

She meant in terms of convection... she didn't mean that it looked exactly like Frances.

Plus it is spelled Frances...

[boca]

Frances was 2 days of torture that I like to forget.This system is still moving NNE and could be between Bermuda and the Bahamas by tomorrow. I sure was hoping this system would move west because S FL is still in a drought from this past Spring. We are 9 to 10 inches down for the year and June is are rainiest month.

[boca]

Question for ya Cape Verde Wave you can clearly see this system in the Bahamas moving NNE. Now the area by Puerto Rico the wave moving WNW, will that merge with the system in the bahamas and cause a low to form in the southern part of this mess in the SE Bahamas?

[MiamiensisWx]

Question for ya Cape Verde Wave you can clearly see this system in the Bahamas moving NNE. Now the area by Puerto Rico the wave moving WNW, will that merge with the system in the bahamas and cause a low to form in the southern part of this mess in the SE Bahamas?

Some of the convection and outflow from the Caribbean wave axis could interact with the Bahamas ULL system due to southwesterly flow, resulting in a blowup of some convection in the Bahamas system which could help a weak MLC/LLC to get established; however, in general, not much other effect on the Bahamas system from the Caribbean wave is overly likely.

[boca]

Which way would it liely move?

[MiamiensisWx]

Which way would it liely move?

As it is feeling the first influences of the trough now, the main convective mass has been moving very slowly slightly north; however, as the system is likely to remain in a weak steering pattern, even after the trough passes by, it may likely be an erratic mover, as I have mentioned in my unofficial forecast post further up this page.

[CHRISTY]

Here's my thinking this afternoon on this complex weather system east of the northern bahamas...an upper level low is in the western atlantic east of the nothern bahamas this is enhancing clouds,showers and thunderstorms over the northern bahamas.This system might have some chance to organize during the middle and later part of this week as strong shear relaxes over this area in the atlantic.some computer model output is suggesting that there will be atleast upper-level system forming,if this happens and a surface feature can form underneath,we might have a tropical system towards the end of the week.But again all this is highly uncertain....but anthing that does form might be steered west by the bermuda high.So basically looks like an unsettled weekend over the bahamas and florida. chrisy

[Windtalker1]

Here's my thinking this afternoon on this complex weather system east of the northern bahamas...an upper level low is in the western atlantic east of the nothern bahamas this is enhancing clouds,showers and thunderstorms over the northern bahamas.This system might have some chance to organize during the middle and later part of this week as strong shear relaxes over this area in the atlantic.some computer model output is suggesting that there will be atleast upper-level system forming,if this happens and a surface feature can form underneath,we might have a tropical system towards the end of the week.But again all this is highly uncertain....but anthing that does form might be steered west by the bermuda high.So basically looks like an unsettled weekend over the bahamas and florida. chrisy

I AGREE !!

[SouthFloridawx]

From Accuwx...

Today's Discussion
Disturbed Weather East and Northeast of Grand Bahama is being Watched for Possible Development
Posted: 20-JUN-2006 5:54pm EDT

By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski



We continue to moditor the area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms located over the northern Bahamas and to the northeast of the northern most Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is associated with a weakening upper level trough that is generally between 70 west and 75 west. This upper level trough will break up into two parts. The northern most part will lift out to the northeast leaving the southern most part behind just northeast of Grand Bahama within the next 36 hours. When upper level troughs go through this splitting process the southern most part tends to become an upper level low. This feature will be sitting over warm water for the next few days and it might aquire tropical characteristics by the end of the week or during this coming weekend. The wind flow in the lower 10,000 feet is generally from the east and northeast. We refer to this as the steering flow for weak systems. So, based on this we expect this feature to eventually move westward toward Florida. Nearly all global computer models are showing some kind of weak feature forming in this general area and drifing into Florida this weekend. We can't tell for sure at this point whether this system will become an organized tropical system or remain a disorganized area of clouds and stormy weather. Either way it should bring the northern Bahamas unsetteld weather for the rest of this week and could bring Florida wet and perhaps stormy weather this weekend.

[curtadams]

can anybody post what the models are doing with this thing?

Models have been very unsettled with this. The most common interesting thing has been to make an area with stormy weather - but no big pressure low - and move it west (to FL) or north to the open Atlantic. I would interpret it as a hybrid tropical low. Mostly they predict nothing of note. I think once NOGAPS spun up a tropical depression but the next run it was back to just some wet weather for Miami.