Convection Near Bahamas

[stormtruth]

Is there an invest for this?

[CHRISTY]

Is there an invest for this?

NOPE....not as of right now.

[Derek Ortt]

and no need for one as there is nothing there

[rockyman]

Hey, Derek...what's your definition of "nothing"...nothing at the surface, nothing to worry about for now, or nothing tropical? Thanks!

[CHRISTY]

IR IMAGE.....

[MiamiensisWx]

This is certainly an interesting little system and synoptics. If you look at this visible loop, I think there may be a weak circulation trying to form a bit around Eleuthera, Cat Island, and the surrounding vicinity. Right now, the system/ULL is under weak steering currents under a low-level to mid-level ridge and ahead of an approaching trough from the northwest that is over the east-central United States. Even though shear is fairly high and may not permit much development and though the lower and upper levels are fairly dry, the synoptics could favor a relocation of the center on the south side of the system, which could allow for some (though not very significant) development, in an Arthur (1996), Franklin (2005), or similar scenario, as there is rather favorable diffluence and the still high shear has been decreasing a bit under the weak steering currents and ahead of the trough; otherwise, development may likely be less likely as the system does not get established with and within the synoptics and instead fizzles/gets sheared/joins up with the trough and/or dissipates.

[The Hurricaner]

Wow...

I dont think it really matters if this develops, if it just maintains itself and moves over FL, it will give us a good amount of rain.

[MiamiensisWx]

*EDITED AS SOUTHFLORIDAWX'S POST WAS DELETED*

[Damar91]

This "nothing" seems to be getting bigger by the hour.

[CHRISTY]

Seems to me like some type of MID LEVEL CIRCULATION right now....Things might get interesting if convection still remains.

Check out this loop u can see the turning....http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-76&zoom=1&quality=100&info=vis&type=Animation&numframes=12

[SouthFloridawx]

As you pointed out in your post... by the way you have become much more educated and your posts have been very much quality in the previous weeks than I can ever remember you posting.

As far as the system in the bahamas... I think the convection must persist for the next few days and it's going to need help from some moisture from one of the waves entering the caribbean which is probably likely. Right now there is some dry air at certain levels but, you and I both know that things change very rapidly and especially in the tropics. Climatologically speaking this is not specifically the time of year when we see systems form in the bahamas and move westard but, with the Atlantic Ridge eventually getting support from high pressure over the Cont. US... I think likely what we will see is moderate to strong convection begin to fire up over the bahamas in the next couple of days. Anyway... I have been watching the models in the area around the bahamas/se us coast and have noticed a few showing vorticity in the lower levels particularly in the 850mb region. However gfs has been showing some vorticity in the 500mb region also.

Bottom line is that this thing needs some support and if that upper level low stregthens likely we will see it an a direction that helps to ventilate tropical systems... (correct me if I'm wrong)

If this is not a problem off the east coast it may well become a problem in the future in the GOM.

IMO

Nathan

[caneman]

and no need for one as there is nothing there

There isn't now but could be in a couple days.

[Damar91]

So basically this thing should just sit there for the next few days?

[cheezyWXguy]

i maybe thinking of a different storm, but the first few frames of the animation look like rita before it became a TS, IMO

[MiamiensisWx]

So basically this thing should just sit there for the next few days?

Yes, I personally believe so, especially given the synoptics that steering currents may likely remain weak over the next 48 to 60 hours or so. As the system is under low-level to mid-level ridging and has/is separating from an old frontal system and ULL activity, of which it is still associated with; also, the convective activity is likely forming a new ULL and possible MLC/LLC (mid-level to low-level center of circulation). In between a new approaching trough and under ridging, the system is in a weak steering environment.

[HurricaneHunter914]

IR IMAGE.....

HOLY &%#$! Sorry, but that IR pic reminds me of Frances when it made landfall.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, this system and the overall synoptics mentioned above in my other two posts remind me a lot of Franklin (2005) and some similar systems and scenarios... you can see it, as well as the synoptics in this scenario, by viewing this infra-red imagery. As the system is in a weak steering environment as the front and trough passes it to it's northwest and north and as it is under low-level to mid-level ridging, hence the somewhat erratic northward movement as the system interacts with the approaching trough/front in the weak steering environment. As the front bypasses it and approaches it, the system is likeky to be in a weak steering environment over the next 48 to 60 hours or so generally, especially as the possible center may reform on the southern side of the system a few times, given the synoptics.

[storms NC]

The frontal system will push it on out to sea.

[Patrick99]

I wish it would move over us....I'm dying for the rain. This has not been a wet June at all.

[Damar91]

The frontal system will push it on out to sea.

Does anyone agree with this?