Convection Near Bahamas

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boca
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#101 Postby boca » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:49 am

If the high builds in fast enough it could stop its northward momentum and head west across Florida and into the Gulf its all timing.
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CHRISTY

#102 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:52 am

boca wrote:If the high builds in fast enough it could stop its northward momentum and head west across Florida and into the Gulf its all timing.


u are correct my friend on that one...its all about timeing.
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#103 Postby beachbum_al » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:52 am

Thank you Boca.
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CHRISTY

#104 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:58 am

the NHC still thinks conditions still arent favorable.....will see if that changes with time as shear is forcast to decrease a bit in the area.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201451
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
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#105 Postby CycloneCarl » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:15 am

Another multispectral view:
Image
IR=red, Vis=green, WV=blue

This image shows the environment quite well, with the whitish stronger convective cloud tops, the reddish thinner high clouds being sheared away from the convection, the greenish lower clouds which in places show the direction convection is being sheered from, and the streams of bluish water vapor haze. The trough up the coast is clearly depicted.
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drezee
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#106 Postby drezee » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:18 am

Almost on MIA radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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HurricaneHunter914
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#107 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:46 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Well dry air right now is really low so that should help with development and the dry air is decreasing aswell. I don't see how the current conditions are not favorable.
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tailgater
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#108 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 20, 2006 11:04 am

boca wrote:System in Bahamas looks better today but its apparently moving away towards the NNE away from Florida becasue of the trough but the high is supossed to build back in Wed thru Fri.

What system are you speaking of UUL, Upper Trough or surface Trough.
Not trying to be rude, it's just the only thing I see moving NNE are some of the Cloud tops. :D
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CHRISTY

#109 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 20, 2006 11:09 am

SST OVERLAY...

Image
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rockyman
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#110 Postby rockyman » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:26 pm

Georgetown, Bahamas is now reporting NNE winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78092.html
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#111 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:38 pm

rockyman wrote:Georgetown, Bahamas is now reporting NNE winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78092.html

Along with SE Fla Coast
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rockyman
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#112 Postby rockyman » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:43 pm

Vorticity is increasing at the surface over the central Bahamas...I think this system has a chance to spin up at the surface:

Image

Convergence is increasing:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Divergence is high (because of upper level feature):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Shear is 10-20 knots from SW:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
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rockyman
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#113 Postby rockyman » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:55 pm

Image

:uarrow: :uarrow: it "looks" like a tropical cyclone :D
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#114 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:57 pm

sure does
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no advance
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#115 Postby no advance » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:59 pm

Move north please. Surfers delight. Looks disorganized for now.
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CHRISTY

#116 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:01 pm

Here's a another visible... :eek:

Image
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SouthFloridawx
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#117 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:03 pm

Where is the LLC?
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CHRISTY

#118 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:05 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Where is the LLC?


you can see the begins of some turning of the clouds in this VISIBLE LOOP!

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Carribbean
Last edited by CHRISTY on Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rockyman
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#119 Postby rockyman » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:05 pm

Georgetown, Bahamas now showing North winds:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ry=bahamas
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tracyswfla
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#120 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:07 pm

Do I see a Special Tropical Disturbance statement in our near future?
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