Convection Near Bahamas

[boca]

Does it say in any of the discussions about the high building back in. look at the water vapor shot.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[CHRISTY]

Well lastnight in the 1030 the NHC was sayin it was slowly drifting westward.....

IR image of the area...

[CycloneCarl]

Here is a nice multispectral view of it:

IR=red, Vis=green, WV=blue

[boca]

Miami NWS has changed their tune on the westward movement of the system.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL

[CHRISTY]

Interesting boca.....the NWS is saying we might get more rain then the models are showing but it will all depend on were this feature ends up.

Here's the 3:30am from the NWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST WITH AXIS
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEX. AN UPPER
LOW ALONG THIS AXIS LOCATED JUST BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA AND NRN
BAHAMAS WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE
(EAST). EARLIER SAT IMAGES WERE SHOWING THIS LOW DRIFTING
WESTWARD...HOWEVER LATER IMAGES HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT.
NEITHER GFS NOR NAM BRING THIS LOW WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SO THEIR OUTPUT INDICATE ONLY LOW SCT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FUTURE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW IS SIGNIFICANT CAUSE A WESTWARD
MOVEMENT WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER THE DIVERGENT SIDE AND THIS
COULD BRING MORE RAIN THAN THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING.

[cycloneye]

537
NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 20 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-020

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


No plans for now to investigate the area.

[boca]

Jax NWS says a upper level high will build eastward from the plains to the Carolina's. So maybe this system will get stuck under the ridge.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/cgi-bin/tex ... &name=Area\sForecast\sDiscussion

[rockyman]

Windshear has decreased toward the Florida coast...and the surface trough's tail end is just north of central Cuba...this is the area I'll be watching today to see if convection can get going...

[CHRISTY]

Here is a awsome visible loop.....SEEhttp://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Carribbean

[StJoe]

Wow, it really looks like its starting to blow...

[CHRISTY]

Here's another view of the convection in the bahamas.

[boca]

System in Bahamas looks better today but its apparently moving away towards the NNE away from Florida becasue of the trough but the high is supossed to build back in Wed thru Fri.

[SouthFloridawx]

System in Bahamas looks better today but its apparently moving away towards the NNE away from Florida becasue of the trough but the high is supossed to build back in Wed thru Fri.

Yes according to some of the models high pressure will build back towards the west pushing the trough more westerly. But, the question is how far north it moves when that westerly movement is made.

[CHRISTY]

Guys i really dont think this system is moving much...The ULL to its west is causing the cloud tops to blow off a bit. Looks interesting this morning.

[boca]

The trough is right along the east coast causing the pull northward this could be a S Carolina system if it continues this way and by the time the high builds back in it will be at 30°N heading into the Georgia Carolina area.

[CHRISTY]

The trough is right along the east coast causing the pull northward this could be a S Carolina system if it continues this way and by the time the high builds back in it will be at 30°N heading into the Georgia Carolina area.

i think it may get shoved a bit north before it moves west or even SW.

[CajunMama]

The trough is right along the east coast causing the pull northward this could be a S Carolina system if it continues this way and by the time the high builds back in it will be at 30°N heading into the Georgia Carolina area.

Boca i think its a tad bit early to be saying that.lets wait and see what happens.

Please read the post before deciding what a member can or cannot say. Boca said it could be not it would be. It's speculation and he explained why he is speculating this.

[CHRISTY]

The trough is right along the east coast causing the pull northward this could be a S Carolina system if it continues this way and by the time the high builds back in it will be at 30°N heading into the Georgia Carolina area.

Boca i think its a tad bit early to be saying that.lets wait and see what happens.

Please read the post before deciding what a member can or cannot say. Boca said it could be not it would be. It's speculation and he explained why he is speculating this.

i meant no harm.....truly! i was only stateing my opinion.

[beachbum_al]

Okay I have stupid question....Is there a chance that this could end up in the GOM or is the trough strong enough to pull it North along the Atlantic?

[CajunMama]

The trough is right along the east coast causing the pull northward this could be a S Carolina system if it continues this way and by the time the high builds back in it will be at 30°N heading into the Georgia Carolina area.

Boca i think its a tad bit early to be saying that.lets wait and see what happens.

Please read the post before deciding what a member can or cannot say. Boca said it could be not it would be. It's speculation and he explained why he is speculating this.

i meant no harm.....truly! i was only stateing my opinion.

As was Boca.