Convection Near Bahamas

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200208
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS DIMINISHED AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CENTRAL CUBA... AND EXTEND EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER... BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[boca]

Watched Channel 10 weather which I usually don't watch. Trent was on and he said a low pressure has formes over Grand Bahama moving slowly west which should increase our rain chances, but we already knew that from the 10:30pm.

[CHRISTY]

Watched Channel 10 weather which I usually don't watch. Trent was on and he said a low pressure has formes over Grand Bahama moving slowly west which should increase our rain chances, but we already knew that from the 10:30pm.

yea boca iam also watching this area in the bahamas...looks to me that atleast we have a chance for some heavy rain.will something develope maybe maybe not.

[boca]

It seems like its getting squashed to the south as before it was directly east of us.

[CHRISTY]

[JonathanBelles]

which one are we looking at the one over cuba or the other one?

[boca]

I think its all one system, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[Ixolib]

The local met here (CBS - Tampabay's 10) continued to "hint" throughout his weathercast Monday night that it "may" make it to the surface and "he'll be watching".

[ronjon]

The 00Z CMC has really jumped on development east of the Bahamas in the 5-6 day time frame and slowly moves the system N or NW. Meanwhile, both the 00Z GFS and Nogaps take an open wave across S FL or through the straits into the GOM and develop weak lows with GFS in the north-central GOM and the Nogaps more south in the western GOM. Both of these models also show an open wave east of the Bahamas where the CMC develops its low 5-6 days down the road. To summarize, looks like all the models are keying in on the current Bahamas system & moving it west into the GOM where two models develop weak lows. In addition, most of the models have a wave east of the Bahamas in 5-6 days that only the CMC spins up. Could get interesting this week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[O Town]

GFS is also picking up something that spins up from PR, east of Bahamas. Hmmm.

[jlauderdal]

Actually i was watching channel 7 a while ago and they were sayin that this feature might slowly drift west into florida and bring us atleast good rain for the weekend.so i think i just my just keep an eye on it just in case.

The channel 7 "discussion" should clear things up. http://www.wsvn.com/weather/

Discussion:
Umbrellas on-hold!

It's the heart of the rainy season, but rain hasn't been very impressive lately. In Miami, we've seen less than one-tenth of an inch of rain over the past week! Right now, we're running slightly more than 2 inches below-average for the month of June (usually our wettest month of the year).

Rain chances will continue throughout the week, with a better chance at showers and storms arriving just before the weekend. Until then, winds will still come in from the Atlantic and, at times, a few showers will move in on the breeze. Our easterly flow will also keep humidity levels up, along with more warm nights and hot days.

As for the tropics, we're watching 3 tropical waves. At least for now, conditions aren't ripe for any kind of development. Enjoy these quiet times!

For the latest information keep it only on one station, 7 News.

Phil Ferro
Chief Meteorologist
WSVN 7 Weather

[CHRISTY]

Convection still flareing up in the bahamas take a look....http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES11152006171JiSsNR.jpg

[boca]

Nice little tail there NE of that blob.

[boca]

System now is moving NNE out to sea. So much for any chance of needed rain.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

First visible images show no signs of low or mid-level circulation and pressures are high in the area too. It just a cluster of thunderstorms that will probably die off later today.

[caneman]

System now is moving NNE out to sea. So much for any chance of needed rain.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

I don't believe it is moving NNE. The ULL to its west is causing the cloud tops to blow off. IT bears watching

[HURAKAN]

So close and so far at the same time. We need the rain but that rain doesn't seem to like us!!!

[Stratusxpeye]

Awhile back when alberto was being picked up by the models a lot of people said it would not form. Also they posted information that joe b from accuweather said after 6-20 he expects some activity and this was weeks back. Here it is the 20th and models are picking up on things in the near 5-7 day time frame. They could be on to something here. We'll have to keep watching. What time frame would we be looking at for it to cross florida? If it devolps or not.

[HURAKAN]

Arthur (1996) was the last storm to form in June and in the Bahamas area.

[CHRISTY]

System now is moving NNE out to sea. So much for any chance of needed rain.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

its not moving NNE right now....and if it tried to it will probably get pushed back SW into florida as the high builds back in.