Convection Near Bahamas

[boca]

The NWS discussions don't seem to think this area in the Bahamas will move west or any direction for that matter. Melbourne seems to think this area in Bahamas will move north into the weakness in the Atlantic.

TUE-SUN...A REGIME BASED FORECAST WITH IMPLIED ALBEIT WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE DURING
THE WEEK. FORECAST BASED ON RIDGE POSITION JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FL
WITH COASTAL SECTIONS SHOWING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
RAIN/TSRA CHANCES AND ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
RATHER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NOT TERRIBLY
CONDUCIVE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS @ THE COAST AND WL KEEP SILENT POP
FOR <20 PERCENT COVERAGE. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AS WELL AS POPS OVERALL.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH NR BAHAMAS PRODUCING STORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO
SHUNT N TOWARD WEAKNESS OVER WRN ATLC AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR ATTM
FOR AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER TROPICAL FETCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
RAIN AMTS MAY INCREASE JUST ABV CLIMO NO`S IN THE EXTENDED RANGE

[tailgater]

Yeah, the turning is evident when you watch the east side of the storm, and moreso if you watch the storms that are just north of Cuba - storms don't move eastward in this part of the world on their own. And yes, while Katrina did form here, remember that was in August, without any wind shear, with 29C SSTs, and without troughs to throw it back out into the cold North Atlantic. This isn't exactly the best place for a storm to form in June.

I don't see any storms moving eastward just N of Cuba, but there are Tstorms regenerating quickly to the E of Great Abaco.

[mvtrucking]

I was just looking at a area east of Bahamas(Way out though) It has a long tail and is rotating about 40L 30w(Not sure i wrote that correctly?) Here is a link to it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Is that a wave?

[MiamiensisWx]

I was just looking at a area east of Bahamas(Way out though) It has a long tail and is rotating about 40L 30w(Not sure i wrote that correctly?) Here is a link to it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Is that a wave?

Nope, it's a typical extratropical low. The system in the eastern Caribbean and the system near 8N and 52W, however, are both tropical wave axis systems.

[CHRISTY]

The lastest 12z GFS Has the next trough missing it and then developes a strong 850 vort max and then it seems to move it NW and then SW across florida.If the GFS continues to show this iam think iam gonna being watching a lil closer...and also i might add shear is also forcast to be light for a few days.soooo lets see what plays out.

[mvtrucking]

I was just looking at a area east of Bahamas(Way out though) It has a long tail and is rotating about 40L 30w(Not sure i wrote that correctly?) Here is a link to it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Is that a wave?

Nope, it's a typical extratropical low. The system in the eastern Caribbean and the system near 8N and 52W, however, are both tropical wave axis systems.

Ok, thanks CapeVerdeWave.

['CaneFreak]

Not trying to stir anything up...but Bahamas system is developing convection rather rapidly and pressures may be high now...but they will probably decrease in the near future...also, the shear tendency appears to be decreasing according to the shear tendencies from satellites...the highest oceanic heat contents are also in this region. As we saw with Alberto, oceanic heat can really help a system when the shear is decreasing....COMMENTS PLEASE!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Read my daily discussion about the bahamas system. I think we got a Alex like low developing(Not a hurricane but a tropical storm is possible)

[boca]

I think its slowly inching west. Look at the radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Damar91]

This thing doesn't have much room to develop, does it?

[boca]

not really I just want it to move over us for some rain for a change.

[Damar91]

Does anyone know if the models are still picking up on this?

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT... BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

For the first time NHC mentions this area.

[dixiebreeze]

Yep Luis, and there are three interesting areas right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Damar91]

This area has been flaring up most of the day. Let's see how much more in the next day. Like I said before though, it doesn't have much room.

[tailgater]

This UUL doesn't look like the typical UUL with all the convection firing around the periphery, Something to keep an eye on.

[CHRISTY]

Lots of convection around the bahamas this afternoon....here's a close up visible loop of the area.SEEhttp://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Carribbean

[SouthFloridawx]

NAM in 84 Hours showing a weak broad area of low pressure.




Experimental NAM 84 Hours

[deltadog03]

the Euro shows the poss. of something developing near FL as well. I am at my cbs internship so I can't post any photos but, take a look at the H5 charts.

[SouthFloridawx]

72 Hours CMC 850mb Vorticity 12Z today