Convection Near Bahamas

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boca
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Convection Near Bahamas

#1 Postby boca » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:50 pm

I didn't see a thread started on this one about 250 miles east of the northern bahamas. It could be an ULL forming in that area, but which direction will it move.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
Last edited by boca on Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:53 pm

Good that you started this theme because some models are hinting of something in the next few days in that area.So let's continue the discussions about this area at this thread.
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#3 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:54 pm

need a link there boca.....not seeing anything on satellite...
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#4 Postby boca » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:54 pm

link is their now
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#5 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:56 pm

i must be blind or maybe there is a glare on the computer screen...i found it...i must be going blind....
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CHRISTY

#6 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:01 pm

Guys here is a Good IR image of the convection East of Northern bahamas...

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:03 pm

Wave is encountering strong shear and dry air...it will probably be a non-event...
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CHRISTY

#8 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:13 pm

Guys iam a not a fan of these kind of shear maps,but its interesting that on this shear map conditions will be getting pretty favorable around the bahamas in a few days take a look....

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby boca » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:18 pm

Looks favorable for sure. This is were Katrina formed.
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#10 Postby rainydaze » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:19 pm

BY FRIDAY THE GFS
SHOWS THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 60W OR ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW MOVING GENERALLY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS WHICH COULD AFFECT CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND BUT STILL A
LONG WAY OUT.




Is this the same tropical wave Miami NWS is refering to?
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#11 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:19 pm

boca wrote:Looks favorable for sure. This is were Katrina formed.


boca maybe models are picking up on something once the shear backs off?
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#12 Postby boca » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:23 pm

Gee around the same time as our gathering in Lauderdale how coencidental .
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#13 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:35 pm

boca wrote:Gee around the same time as our gathering in Lauderdale how coencidental .


We're still going. :wink:
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#14 Postby boca » Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:57 pm

yes sir
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#15 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 19, 2006 5:14 am

Convection continues to flare up around the bahamas....

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 19, 2006 5:23 am

Doesn't look like much right now though I can see a little bit of turning in the storm. I'd give it a 45% chance of development since dry air isn't really much of a factor and that the shear is decreasing in the area.
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#17 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:49 am

Yeah, the turning is evident when you watch the east side of the storm, and moreso if you watch the storms that are just north of Cuba - storms don't move eastward in this part of the world on their own. And yes, while Katrina did form here, remember that was in August, without any wind shear, with 29C SSTs, and without troughs to throw it back out into the cold North Atlantic. This isn't exactly the best place for a storm to form in June.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:52 am

If it moves westward, it will be great, we need the rain!!!
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#19 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 19, 2006 7:24 am

Guys on the IR loop i posted futher up iam seening convection continueing to flare up.....i wonder if this is the area the models have been picking up?Seems like it could get rather interesting.
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#20 Postby Stratusxpeye » Mon Jun 19, 2006 8:10 am

It seems that alot of the models are picking up on something east of the bahamas. Theres a few threads open now on a lot of the models. The NAM That picked up on alberto has been picking up on this as well. Could get interesting.
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