12Z Nogaps interesting for FL

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12Z Nogaps interesting for FL

#1 Postby Vortex » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:49 pm

12Z Nogaps brings organized convection E of the northern Bahamas to a position over southern Florida in 5-6 days.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006061812
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CHRISTY

#2 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:51 pm

That is scary.....indeed very interesting!lets see if it continues with future runs.
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#3 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:53 pm

Link won't work for me. East of the northern bahams but over south florida? Where abouts would that mean? Like melbourne area?
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#4 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:56 pm

Well it looks like some pretty good rain for FL that's all I'm going to say.
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#5 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:59 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:Link won't work for me. East of the northern bahams but over south florida? Where abouts would that mean? Like melbourne area?


SOUTH FLORIDA....

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:59 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Well it looks like some pretty good rain for FL that's all I'm going to say.


A Tad bit to soon to be saying that...
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#7 Postby O Town » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:03 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:Link won't work for me. East of the northern bahams but over south florida? Where abouts would that mean? Like melbourne area?

More like W. Palm/Palm Beach County.
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#8 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:05 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Well it looks like some pretty good rain for FL that's all I'm going to say.


A Tad bit to soon to be saying that...


Yeah but at least we can still hope for the rain.
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#9 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:15 pm

I have seen other models giving similar solutions, but none of them show anything strong quite yet. One concern from that track, however, is that something will develop, hit Florida and then move across the Gulf and hit somewhere between Brownsville and Pensacola.
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#10 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:21 pm

all I can say is hmmmmm
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#11 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:21 pm

Or basically from Texas to Florida.
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#12 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:21 pm

These models could possibly be picking up on the wave currently east of the Islands...the way this scenario would play out: wave moves west and then NW near the Islands...N of Puerto Rico, then the Bermuda high builds back to the west and forces the system to turn back to the W or WNW...toward Florida and the SE Coast (I won't name any famous storms that have taken such a track).
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#13 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:25 pm

We have 2 model discussions that are possibly about the same system:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85843
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#14 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:32 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Or basically from Texas to Florida.
yes, basically. :lol:
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#15 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:34 pm

The only problem is that this is an odd track for a June storm. They usually would form in the Caribb. or Gulf. That is why I am thinking this scenario is probably unlikely.
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#16 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:42 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85843

Yeah we are currently watching that same kind of thing in the thread posted above.
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#17 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:08 pm

Interesting. I wonder if we'll see this system or the GOM system first. I think by Tuesday, the 20th, we'll have a clearer picture, but conditions seem to be realigning for a storm to develop again.
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#18 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:13 pm

i dont really care, just give somebody some rain!!!
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#19 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:31 pm

channel 7 just spoke about this wave and they said there is a wave to watch for mid week....so things might get interesting after all?maybe
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#20 Postby Scott_inVA » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:53 pm

CHRISTY wrote:channel 7 just spoke about this wave and they said there is a wave to watch for mid week....so things might get interesting after all?maybe


Yep. GFS has been trying to spin up a vort INVOF Haiti/DR and the Bahamas for next Friday (6/23).

Probably have a trof draped across the Mid-Atlantic area (somewhat helpful) and High Pressure over Deep South (not hepful). First guess would be anything out there would look at East Coast.

Scott
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