Wave Near 16N 58 W Obsevations noted

[Vortex]

A few things to mention about this wave this morning..


-Convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity overnight. Overall oranization has improved somewhat and shear values are beginning to lower. Atmospheric conditions will become more favorable as this system propagates Westward.

-The system is moving a littele slower to the WNW/NW.

-Several models latch onto this system with varying degrees of intensity with the 00z canadian strongest at this point. Guidance moves the system wnw to NW over the next few days with canadian indicating a cyclone near Bermuda in 5-6 days.

**Immediate concern is for Torrential rainfall with localized flooding across the Northern Leeward islands, Virgin Islands and spreading westward towards Puerto Rico on Sunday. Gusty winds in excess of 30kts are also very possible within squalls.

[O Town]

This thing blew up over night.

[WindRunner]

And the AVN loop shows some interesting movement of the convection - not quite a circulation, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was in less than 24 hours.

ttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[rockyman]

Canadian 00z:

[skysummit]

LSU's Low Cloud Product:

[rockyman]

00z NOGAPS shows low pressure south of Bermuda and moving slowly toward the north:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=072hr

[rockyman]

I think any low level center is further SW near 14/61

[jusforsean]

funny how the cmc takes this thing up up and away tword the northern east coast region, mabey this is the north, south carolina storm they have been talking about?? I know the direction can change i am just making an observation not getting hyped or anything bad please don't yell at me fellow storm2ker's

[jusforsean]

hey rockyman, why do your last 3 posts above say 648 posts? Just happend to notice cause i was wondering how many posts bring you past tropical depression status shouldnt the number of posts have climbed up? how does that work?

** hey , look mine does it too? Does it update at a certian time? Off topic i know just happen to notice it on this post? Tks.

[rockyman]

As always, the initial formation of a center is extremely important for future movement...if the center forms further south (near 14N), it could miss the trough and continue further into the Caribbean...if the center forms further north, the trough will pick this up and turn it north toward Bermuda.

[WindRunner]

hey rockyman, why do your last 3 posts above say 648 posts? Just happend to notice cause i was wondering how many posts bring you past tropical depression status shouldnt the number of posts have climbed up? how does that work?

** hey , look mine does it too? Does it update at a certian time? Off topic i know just happen to notice it on this post? Tks.

The number is the total posts you have made on this forum. You make another post, and they'll all go up by one. As for the rankings, TD at 250 and TS at 500.

[rockyman]

Current steering flow (notice the "gap" between the 2 highs)...with Bermuda right in the gap...also the steering flow over the Island is SE to NW, then veers back E to W south of PR...if the system starts out further north and passes north of PR, it would be an "up and out" scenario at a snail's pace, with possibly a stall south of Bermuda (notice the weak steering flow between the 2 highs)...If the system starts further south and passes south of PR, the next opportunity to "escape" is much further west.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Wave 1
Tropical Low 100
Tropical Depression 250
Tropical Storm 500
Category 1 1000
Category 2 2500
Category 3 5000
Category 4 7500
Category 5 10000

Above are the rankings for the postcounts.

Turning to the theme,the members who live in the NE Caribbean are posting observations at the thread for observations from Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands and Leewards.Let's see if we see some wind direction shifts and pressure falls.That may tell us what is going on with the wave in terms of having a weak low or not.

[rockyman]

I'm keeping an eye on St. Vincent, St. Lucia, and Grenada for any wind shifts.

[bvigal]

From this morning's local discussion:
THIS WAVE...JUST PAST
60W...HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND THE TUTT OVERHEAD THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE ENERGY
WITH THIS WAVE GETTING SPLIT APART AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO LEAD
TO MUCH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

[Steve H.]

This convection is interesting, and it is running along a line of trade winds that are pushing into the western atlantic from the east that are clearly visible on sat pix. The wave further east is also healthy looking this morning and will traverse the Atlantic underneath high pressure. Looks like the tropics are pulsing again.

[skysummit]

This convection is interesting, and it is running along a line of trade winds that are pushing into the western atlantic from the east that are clearly visible on sat pix. The wave further east is also healthy looking this morning and will traverse the Atlantic underneath high pressure. Looks like the tropics are pulsing again.

It looks like that eastern wave has a broad low level circulation developing with it as it moves westward.

[msbee]

it looks like it is encountering some shear, no?

[mtm4319]

Most current observations:

[Thunder44]

This morning's TWO to said that thunderstorms would increase today with this wave, so that's not a suprise. But It looks like a vigorous MLC has also formed further NE near 18N 56W. I see no signs off a LLC developing yet. All the low clouds lines are moving from either from E or SE. Shear looks to be relaxing somewhat over the MLC.