Quiet times in the tropics

[wxman57]

Quick question, How accurate are the maps we see of the MJO, I remember all the hoopla last season about it until we started to see major hurricanes form during a dry MJO and nothing form during the wet phase. So, does the MJO really have a big amount of influence or are the maps just inaccurate?

I guess it depends on where you look. Here's a graphic that I use:

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO/MJO.forecast.olr.png

Blue areas represent decreased Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) due to enhanced convection, possibly, but not necessarily associated with an MJO.

Here's another page with MJO info:
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

There's also lots of detailed MJO analyses here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaf ... /index.htm

And there's CDS's MJO forecast page:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/MJO/Forecasts/

[Audrey2Katrina]

Don't let small lulls fool you, things can change in 24-72 hours. Hurricane Katrina came out of no where,

Well I wouldn't say out of "nowhere" exactly, and it did happen in late August, not mid-June. Trust me, nobody here living in hurricane alley is more aware that a "small lull" means anything more than just that: a small (and I might add WELCOME) lull. Nobody is calling off the season, and all I see there is the perception that we might just have until July... and that would indeed be a welcome respite, and good news.

Time will tell.

A2K

[f5]

everyone said 2005 was boring which ended up being the benchmark year against which all seasons will be measured

[Jim Cantore]

I think we are in for some quiet times in the tropics

you hear anybody complaining?