Predict 2006 landfalls, dates, and level of destruction

[Audrey2Katrina]

Not bad at all, almost as good as that person who said that Katrina would be a Cat-5 in the GOM before 05 season started.

One "person" (possibly the same) also described a hit near their property at "BURAS LA" which was incredibly, even eerily accurate.

A2K

[FloridaDiver]

Alberto – come and gone already and it was mid June, almost a cane, woke some people up for sure, Florida Count 1.

Most likely we will experience a lull for several weeks, mother nature will allow us to enjoy the 4th of July holiday before blindsiding us for yet another season, year three of tat “10 year cycle” scenario

Beryl – TS, fish story

Chris – Mid July, another TS and again out in the ocean trying to find Nemo (now that would be an interesting hurricane name)

Debby – A week from Chris, (little) Debby spins up in the Caribbean, small storm, just barely a CAT1, a bit of a pest to our friends in PR

Ernesto – Something about this name… it has “South Florida” written all over it, early August we will see blue tarps (and other large size debris) flying all over the place, get your generators ready, FPL will have a VERY busy August, Ernesto spanks South Florida with borderline CAT3 winds, Florida Count 2

Florence – CreamPuff TD out in the Atlantic, everyone’s watching Ernest in the GOM as he get’s his act together for round 2

Gordon – Mid August, tropics beginning to heat up, Gordon takes second billing as a CAT 2 slamming into Mexico just south of Cozumel (thank God…) while pesky Ernesto “bullwhips” the Texas coast with CAT3 winds and there’s more…

Helene – Oh yes, end of August brings up the first CAT 5 monster of the year, may give Wilma a run for the “Intensity Queen” title. Sorry, West Palm Beach, all those years of never experiencing a direct hit will end, and in a very sad way, remember Floyd? This beast is not turning north. Florida Count 3

Isaac – Sorry Isaac, your CAT1 winds take second billing to yet another storm crossing Florida and into the GOM…. Who’s next? However, you do give Floridians yet another scare but turn north as a High Pressure dissipates and opens the highway to your ultimate resting place, the Outer Banks.

Joyce - Such a nice name, but a TS fish, Mississippi and Alabama however are dealing with Helene, not a nice way to end the month of August. Not packing the punch she had as she leveled million dollar waterfront homes, she maintains CAT3 at landfall.

Kirk – first week of September brings up (Captain) Kirk, another Atlantic storm that brushes up against the Caribbean islands then dips under PR and Jamaica is hit head on with a pesky CAT 2 Kirk, then heads west to lower Mexico as a TS.

Leslie – Mid - late September brings us Beast number 2, this name scares me almost as much as Helene, someone else posted a nasty Florida Key’s scenario with this lovely lady, I’m afraid I have to agree although perhaps not so doom and glom, a BIG CAT 4 coming up from the Yucatan, through the Florida Straits and almost down the center of the state until a front kicks it east and exiting the area still cleaning up from Helene, Florida Count 4

Michael – Puff of clouds, due east of Leslie, TS, turn north, then he’s gone

Nadine – GOMer in mid to late September, almost behind Leslie, but lucky for at the “BIG EASY” she tests the repaired dikes with minimal CAT 1 maybe CAT2 winds

Oscar – Late September, a late blooming Atlantic Storm, from day one he wants to visit the Carolina’s, CAT2

Patty & Rafael – Things are winding down a bit, we get a couple of TS, one in the deep Atlantic and the other in the Caribbean, major rain events for the Virgin Islands and Bermuda

Rafael – We are almost at the end the season with Rafael, another GOMer, coming up the Yucatan, this time kicked east by a similar weather pattern that pushed Wilma across South Florida in 2005, this time the front is not as far South and Tampa Bay get it’s first semi Major storm as Rafael makes landfall with CAT3 intensity, Florida Count 5

Sandy – A puff of clouds just north of the Virgin Islands, a LLC, a TD and a short lives TS, more rain for VI

Tony – Following sister Sandy, we end the 2006 season as Tony frolics in the Atlantic not making up his mind on what he wants to do, yes he is flexing his CAT3 muscles, but the only ones paying attention is merchant marine traffic…

[gatorcane]

Alberto – come and gone already and it was mid June, almost a cane, woke some people up for sure, Florida Count 1.

Most likely we will experience a lull for several weeks, mother nature will allow us to enjoy the 4th of July holiday before blindsiding us for yet another season, year three of tat “10 year cycle” scenario

Beryl – TS, fish story

Chris – Mid July, another TS and again out in the ocean trying to find Nemo (now that would be an interesting hurricane name)

Debby – A week from Chris, (little) Debby spins up in the Caribbean, small storm, just barely a CAT1, a bit of a pest to our friends in PR

Ernesto – Something about this name… it has “South Florida” written all over it, early August we will see blue tarps (and other large size debris) flying all over the place, get your generators ready, FPL will have a VERY busy August, Ernesto spanks South Florida with borderline CAT3 winds, Florida Count 2

Florence – CreamPuff TD out in the Atlantic, everyone’s watching Ernest in the GOM as he get’s his act together for round 2

Gordon – Mid August, tropics beginning to heat up, Gordon takes second billing as a CAT 2 slamming into Mexico just south of Cozumel (thank God…) while pesky Ernesto “bullwhips” the Texas coast with CAT3 winds and there’s more…

Helene – Oh yes, end of August brings up the first CAT 5 monster of the year, may give Wilma a run for the “Intensity Queen” title. Sorry, West Palm Beach, all those years of never experiencing a direct hit will end, and in a very sad way, remember Floyd? This beast is not turning north. Florida Count 3

Isaac – Sorry Isaac, your CAT1 winds take second billing to yet another storm crossing Florida and into the GOM…. Who’s next? However, you do give Floridians yet another scare but turn north as a High Pressure dissipates and opens the highway to your ultimate resting place, the Outer Banks.

Joyce - Such a nice name, but a TS fish, Mississippi and Alabama however are dealing with Helene, not a nice way to end the month of August. Not packing the punch she had as she leveled million dollar waterfront homes, she maintains CAT3 at landfall.

Kirk – first week of September brings up (Captain) Kirk, another Atlantic storm that brushes up against the Caribbean islands then dips under PR and Jamaica is hit head on with a pesky CAT 2 Kirk, then heads west to lower Mexico as a TS.

Leslie – Mid - late September brings us Beast number 2, this name scares me almost as much as Helene, someone else posted a nasty Florida Key’s scenario with this lovely lady, I’m afraid I have to agree although perhaps not so doom and glom, a BIG CAT 4 coming up from the Yucatan, through the Florida Straits and almost down the center of the state until a front kicks it east and exiting the area still cleaning up from Helene, Florida Count 4

Michael – Puff of clouds, due east of Leslie, TS, turn north, then he’s gone

Nadine – GOMer in mid to late September, almost behind Leslie, but lucky for at the “BIG EASY” she tests the repaired dikes with minimal CAT 1 maybe CAT2 winds

Oscar – Late September, a late blooming Atlantic Storm, from day one he wants to visit the Carolina’s, CAT2

Patty & Rafael – Things are winding down a bit, we get a couple of TS, one in the deep Atlantic and the other in the Caribbean, major rain events for the Virgin Islands and Bermuda

Rafael – We are almost at the end the season with Rafael, another GOMer, coming up the Yucatan, this time kicked east by a similar weather pattern that pushed Wilma across South Florida in 2005, this time the front is not as far South and Tampa Bay get it’s first semi Major storm as Rafael makes landfall with CAT3 intensity, Florida Count 5

Sandy – A puff of clouds just north of the Virgin Islands, a LLC, a TD and a short lives TS, more rain for VI

Tony – Following sister Sandy, we end the 2006 season as Tony frolics in the Atlantic not making up his mind on what he wants to do, yes he is flexing his CAT3 muscles, but the only ones paying attention is merchant marine traffic…

5 Florida hits?

[CrazyC83]

Alberto - come and gone.

Beryl - forms in the west Caribbean. Crosses the Yucatan as a 40mph storm, then enters the Gulf moving northeastward a la Cindy. Strengthens to an 85mph Cat 1 hurricane before weakening to a 65mph TS before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. (June 27 - July 2)

Chris - short-lived fish storm in the central Atlantic out of a non-tropical low that moves over warmer water. Never gets above 50mph. (July 10 - 12)

Debby - first major hurricane that brings Cape Verde to an early start. It remains away from land however but takes a long track across the Atlantic, peaking at 120mph. (July 23 - Aug. 2)

Ernesto - short-lived storm in the Bay of Campeche that quickly strikes Mexico as a 45mph storm. (Aug. 7 - 8)

Florence - has Jeanne written all over it, except a bit farther north. Makes a 270-degree turn back to Florida after forming north of Puerto Rico, peaking as a Cat 4 with 140mph winds. Less than 12 hours after Gordon's Gulf landfall (see below), Florence makes landfall near St. Augustine with 115mph winds. (Aug. 16 - 23)

Gordon - forms out of a blob in the Bay of Campeche, but unlike Ernesto, it turns northeast then northwest, allowing it to explode as it roars towards the Rio Grande Valley. Makes landfall at the mouth of the Rio Grande with 145mph winds (peak intensity) after rapidly intensifying before landfall. It occurs on the same day that Florence hits Florida. (Aug. 18 - 23)

Helene - the Katrina of 2006. It is a long-lived Cape Verde storm that twice reaches Category 5 in the Atlantic (peaking at 175mph and 903mb - record low for the open Atlantic) and becomes incredibly large as it weakens (slowly) on its way up the East Coast. It spends a lot of time over the Gulf Stream which prevents much weakening before brushing Cape Hatteras with 145mph winds and slamming into Chesapeake Bay with 125mph winds and hurricane winds affecting a 180-mile radius. (Aug. 25 - Sept. 9)

Isaac - short-lived weak storm that eventually gets absorbed by the much larger Helene while peaking with 50mph winds in the central Atlantic. (Sept. 1 - 3)

Joyce - forms abruptly in the Caribbean, quickly makes landfall in Central America with 60mph winds and then dissipates and reforms in the Pacific. (Sept. 2 - 4)

Kirk - long-lived Cape Verde storm that loops its way across the Atlantic without ever making landfall. However, it becomes very strong and actually becomes a Category 5 with 160mph winds at one point. It is the third longest-lasting storm on record. (Sept. 4 - 30)

Leslie - forms in the Bahamas and immediately tracks north. It sends fear into the hearts of the East Coast residents already devastated by Helene. However, it turns away safely and avoids land, peaking with 110mph winds. (Sept. 10 - 15)

Michael - first develops off the west coast of Florida, quickly strengthens over the Loop Current to a strong Cat 1 with 90mph winds before turning north back onto the Florida Panhandle as a strong tropical storm. (Sept. 16 - 20)

Nadine - yet another Cape Verde storm on a more southerly track, but just as destructive (except in the Caribbean this time). It becomes a Category 4 hurricane twice, crosses numerous islands before turning north after peaking with 150mph winds. (Sept. 25 - Oct. 4)

Oscar - forms in the Bahamas but quickly turns northeast away from land. Peaks at 70mph. (Sept. 30 - Oct. 5)

Patty - slow-moving rainmaker in Central America forms south of the Yucatan and remains poorly organized before it makes landfall in Honduras with 65mph winds, after 72 hours of rain. (Oct. 12 - 15)

Rafael - first forms in the western Caribbean just after Patty leaves, then after crossing the Yucatan absolutely explodes over the Loop Current, jumping from Cat 1 to a strong Cat 4 in 15 hours with 155mph winds. Makes landfall near Pensacola with 125mph winds. (Oct. 18 - 27)

Sandy - forms in the central Caribbean but doesn't last long and degenerates quickly after only gaining 40mph winds. (Oct. 31 - Nov. 1)

Tony - develops out of a non-tropical low in the central Atlantic and strengthens to a solid hurricane with 85mph winds without making any land approaches. (Nov. 21 - 30)

Valerie - closes out the season with a rare storm that is reminiscent of Hurricane Ginny with snow on the outer bands. Forms out of a "perfect storm"-style scenario, actually becomes tropical and moves north into Atlantic Canada as a 90mph "hybrid" hurricane (after the season ends!) flanked by cold air but still with some tropical characteristics. (Dec. 4 - 14)

Complete listing of storms with dates and intensities:

ALBERTO: June 10-14 / 70mph / 995mb
BERYL: June 27-July 2 / 85mph / 982mb
CHRIS: July 10-12 / 50mph / 997mb
DEBBY: July 23-Aug. 2 / 120mph / 952mb
ERNESTO: Aug. 7-8 / 45mph / 1003mb
FLORENCE: Aug. 16-23 / 140mph / 935mb
GORDON: Aug. 18-23 / 145mph / 940mb
HELENE: Aug. 25-Sept. 9 / 175mph / 903mb
ISAAC: Sept. 1-3 / 50mph / 1001mb
JOYCE: Sept. 2-4 / 60mph / 998mb
KIRK: Sept. 4-30 / 160mph / 924mb
LESLIE: Sept. 10-15 / 110mph / 955mb
MICHAEL: Sept. 16-20 / 90mph / 978mb
NADINE: Sept. 25-Oct. 4 / 150mph / 927mb
OSCAR: Sept. 30-Oct. 5 / 70mph / 990mb
PATTY: Oct. 12-15 / 65mph / 994mb
RAFAEL: Oct. 18-27 / 155mph / 908mb
SANDY: Oct. 31-Nov. 1 / 40mph / 1006mb
TONY: Nov. 21-30 / 85mph / 975mb
VALERIE: Dec. 4-14 / 90mph / 961mb

[Extremeweatherguy]

Alberto - come and gone.

Beryl - forms in the west Caribbean. Crosses the Yucatan as a 40mph storm, then enters the Gulf moving northeastward a la Cindy. Strengthens to an 85mph Cat 1 hurricane before weakening to a 65mph TS before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. (June 27 - July 2)

Chris - short-lived fish storm in the central Atlantic out of a non-tropical low that moves over warmer water. Never gets above 50mph. (July 10 - 12)

Debby - first major hurricane that brings Cape Verde to an early start. It remains away from land however but takes a long track across the Atlantic, peaking at 120mph. (July 23 - Aug. 2)

Ernesto - short-lived storm in the Bay of Campeche that quickly strikes Mexico as a 45mph storm. (Aug. 7 - 8)

Florence - has Jeanne written all over it, except a bit farther north. Makes a 270-degree turn back to Florida after forming north of Puerto Rico, peaking as a Cat 4 with 140mph winds. Less than 12 hours after Gordon's Gulf landfall (see below), Florence makes landfall near St. Augustine with 115mph winds. (Aug. 16 - 23)

Gordon - forms out of a blob in the Bay of Campeche, but unlike Ernesto, it turns northeast then northwest, allowing it to explode as it roars towards the Rio Grande Valley. Makes landfall at the mouth of the Rio Grande with 145mph winds (peak intensity) after rapidly intensifying before landfall. It occurs on the same day that Florence hits Florida. (Aug. 18 - 23)

Helene - the Katrina of 2006. It is a long-lived Cape Verde storm that twice reaches Category 5 in the Atlantic (peaking at 175mph and 903mb - record low for the open Atlantic) and becomes incredibly large as it weakens (slowly) on its way up the East Coast. It spends a lot of time over the Gulf Stream which prevents much weakening before brushing Cape Hatteras with 145mph winds and slamming into Chesapeake Bay with 125mph winds and hurricane winds affecting a 180-mile radius. (Aug. 25 - Sept. 9)

Isaac - short-lived weak storm that eventually gets absorbed by the much larger Helene while peaking with 50mph winds in the central Atlantic. (Sept. 1 - 3)

Joyce - forms abruptly in the Caribbean, quickly makes landfall in Central America with 60mph winds and then dissipates and reforms in the Pacific. (Sept. 2 - 4)

Kirk - long-lived Cape Verde storm that loops its way across the Atlantic without ever making landfall. However, it becomes very strong and actually becomes a Category 5 with 160mph winds at one point. It is the third longest-lasting storm on record. (Sept. 4 - 30)

Leslie - forms in the Bahamas and immediately tracks north. It sends fear into the hearts of the East Coast residents already devastated by Helene. However, it turns away safely and avoids land, peaking with 110mph winds. (Sept. 10 - 15)

Michael - first develops off the west coast of Florida, quickly strengthens over the Loop Current to a strong Cat 1 with 90mph winds before turning north back onto the Florida Panhandle as a strong tropical storm. (Sept. 16 - 20)

Nadine - yet another Cape Verde storm on a more southerly track, but just as destructive (except in the Caribbean this time). It becomes a Category 4 hurricane twice, crosses numerous islands before turning north after peaking with 150mph winds. (Sept. 25 - Oct. 4)

Oscar - forms in the Bahamas but quickly turns northeast away from land. Peaks at 70mph. (Sept. 30 - Oct. 5)

Patty - slow-moving rainmaker in Central America forms south of the Yucatan and remains poorly organized before it makes landfall in Honduras with 65mph winds, after 72 hours of rain. (Oct. 12 - 15)

Rafael - first forms in the western Caribbean just after Patty leaves, then after crossing the Yucatan absolutely explodes over the Loop Current, jumping from Cat 1 to a strong Cat 4 in 15 hours with 155mph winds. Makes landfall near Pensacola with 125mph winds. (Oct. 18 - 27)

Sandy - forms in the central Caribbean but doesn't last long and degenerates quickly after only gaining 40mph winds. (Oct. 31 - Nov. 1)

Tony - develops out of a non-tropical low in the central Atlantic and strengthens to a solid hurricane with 85mph winds without making any land approaches. (Nov. 21 - 30)

Valerie - closes out the season with a rare storm that is reminiscent of Hurricane Ginny with snow on the outer bands. Forms out of a "perfect storm"-style scenario, actually becomes tropical and moves north into Atlantic Canada as a 90mph "hybrid" hurricane (after the season ends!) flanked by cold air but still with some tropical characteristics. (Dec. 4 - 14)

Complete listing of storms with dates and intensities:

ALBERTO: June 10-14 / 70mph / 995mb
BERYL: June 27-July 2 / 85mph / 982mb
CHRIS: July 10-12 / 50mph / 997mb
DEBBY: July 23-Aug. 2 / 120mph / 952mb
ERNESTO: Aug. 7-8 / 45mph / 1003mb
FLORENCE: Aug. 16-23 / 140mph / 935mb
GORDON: Aug. 18-23 / 145mph / 940mb
HELENE: Aug. 25-Sept. 9 / 175mph / 903mb
ISAAC: Sept. 1-3 / 50mph / 1001mb
JOYCE: Sept. 2-4 / 60mph / 998mb
KIRK: Sept. 4-30 / 160mph / 924mb
LESLIE: Sept. 10-15 / 110mph / 955mb
MICHAEL: Sept. 16-20 / 90mph / 978mb
NADINE: Sept. 25-Oct. 4 / 150mph / 927mb
OSCAR: Sept. 30-Oct. 5 / 70mph / 990mb
PATTY: Oct. 12-15 / 65mph / 994mb
RAFAEL: Oct. 18-27 / 155mph / 908mb
SANDY: Oct. 31-Nov. 1 / 40mph / 1006mb
TONY: Nov. 21-30 / 85mph / 975mb
VALERIE: Dec. 4-14 / 90mph / 961mb

seems like a lot of hits to the panhandle.

[vbhoutex]

Ok, now I have some time(if I can stay awake) so here goes.

Alberto - Late March hybrid begins in SW GOM on tail end of front and turns tropcial before moving into the Big Bend area of FL as 55 mph TS. Storm surge is a major issue with this one.

Beryl - An early May storm. begins near the N Yucatan and drifts N then NW. Landfall in S TX between Corpus and Brownsville as a CAT1. Copius rains cause flooding over S TX. Breifly reaches CAT2 status while still in GOM

Chris - Our first Carribean storm. Forms just East of the islands in early June and moves into Carribean as a strengthening TS. Begins a slow recurve after reaching CAT1 just west of the islands and continues strengthening to CAT2 as it passes between Hispaniola and PR on the way out to sea. Devastating rains over PR.

Debby - Another June storm, probably mid - late month. Begins just East of the Turks and Caicos. Tracks along the Eastern edge of the Bahamas and continues a NW course into Jacksonville. Crossing the Gulf Stream she strengthens to 65 mph before landfall.Major flooding in NE FL and most of GA due to slow movement and copius rains.

Ernesto - Comes to be know as the July 4th storm due to formation on the fourth. Ernesto forms in the NW Carribean and moves across the Yucatan as a strong TS. Reemerges into the BOC as a quickly strengthening TD and continues WNW into the Tampico area landfalling as a low end CAT3 hurricane, our first major of the season.

Florence - our first to come out of the Cape Verde region, but does not achieve TS status till just NE of Anguilla. Continuing a track that many say will be a recurve she continues strengthening to a low end CAT4. Still about 150 miles SW of Cape Hatteras she stalls and then turns WNW and slams into Wilmington as a CAT3/CAT4 hurricane. Her track takes her remnants into Eastern Ohio before she totally loses her identity as a TC-July 6th - July16th

Gordon- forms in the NE Carribean after passing over Dominca as a TD. Continues a W to WNW trackwhile steadily strengthening. Reaches CAT1 S of PR, CAT2 as he passes about 80 miles S of Hispaniola, CAT3 between Jamaica and Cuba, CAT4 just off the Western tip of Cuba. Gordon becomes our first 2006 storm to reach CAT5 status just after he passes 90W longitude heading to his eventual landfall at Matagorda, TX as weakening high end CAT4. Though not a direct hit, due to the fact it is in the NE quadrant Houston Metro area takes a hard hit with gusts to 135 mph and sustained measured to 90 mph on the SW and Western side of the metro area. A slow mover Gordon drops up to 16" of rain over many areas of the Eastern 1/3 of TX causing massive flooding. July 30- August 10

Helene - The first true Cape Verde system, Helene is named as she passes just NE of the Leeward Islands. Continued strengthening brings her to a CAT3 status as she steams NW towards the East coast landfall on the Delmarva. At this point she is a weakening CAT2 moving along the or just inland of the coast with final landfall taking her almost directly over NYC with CAT1 winds. August 13th-August21st

Isaac - Issac is another long tracking CV hurricane that reaches CAT5 status for several days, but fortunately recurves as a fish. August 19th - August 30th

Joyce - Another Carribean Storm that forms in the Western Carribean and moves along the Norrthern coast of Honduras as a TS before landfalling in Belize and disapating. Sept 2- Sept. 6

Kirk - Another CV that forms halfway between Africa and the islands. Before finally recurving he reaches CAT5 status as he nears the Carribean Islands. Kirk brushes past Bermuda giving them a scare with his still CAT3 status. Sept. 4- Sept. 14th

Leslie - Forms over the SE GOM after moving through the FL straits as a TD. Strengthens to CAT2 as she moves NW then N into the Cedar Key FL area. Reemerges into ATL near Jacksonville as a weak TS and skirts the coast all the way to Cape Hatteras before heading out to sea Sept 10th-Sept 16th

Michael - Forms on an early fall cold front over the N Cental GOM S of NO. Tracks along the N GOM coast to landfall near Panama City, FL as a strong TS with sustained up to 70 mph Sept 23rd- Sept 26th

Nadine - forms between Cuba and the Bahamas reaching CAT3 status as she heads directly towards SE FL. As she encoutners the Gulf Stream she briefly reaches low end CAT4 strength as she also turns N and then NE as she skirts FL from 50-80 miles offshore. Nadine is a small storm whom many thought might rival the 1935 labor day hurricane. Fortunately this is not the case Oct 1-Oct.8

Oscar - forms in the Carribean off the NE Hounduras coast. Oscar gains CAT1 status as he moves NW just W of the Cayman Islands. He turns N then NNE crossing central Cuba, passing off shore of the SE FL coast as a TS again strengthening to CAT1 status. Oscar surprises everyone by crossing over Cape Hatteras, still a CAT1 hurricane. Not usual for later in the season. Oct 15th-Oct 22nd

Patty - A weak TS that forms along a front in the N GOM and tracks into the LA coast as the front backs Nward as a warm front. Oct 23rd-Oct 24th

Rafael - Forms over the ATL SE of Bermuda and tracks NE briefly reaching CAT1 status before going ET Nov1 -Nov 5

Sandy - BOC formation. Tracks N along the Mexican coast about 50 miles offshore before being abosorbed by a cold front off the coast of Texas, near Corpus. Reaches TS strength as she passes B'ville. Nov. 16th - Nov. 21st.

Tony - Our December surprise. Becomes known as the Christmas Hurricane after forming in the NE GOM on DEC. 20th as a Hybrid, crossing NE FL and running up the entire East Coast to NE where wrap around from the CAT1 system dumps up to 30" of snow in some areas of the NE on Christmas day.

That is my fantasy and I am sticking to it. And I hope only the fishes come true!!!!!

Well we know Beryl won't be right on time!!!

[Epsilon_Fan]

Hmmm, let the newb try

Alberto- I'd say a mid-May TS with extratropical origins... stays at sea

Beryl - An early June Hurricane (75-90mph) that runs up the East Coast but only brushes the coast (outer banks)

Chris- Late June TS that landfalls in the Yucatan and dissipates

Debby- Early July Hurricane that enters Gulf as Cat 2 and landfalls in Northern Gulf as a Cat 1 or strong TS.

Ernesto- Mid-July Caribbean storm that intensifies to a Cat 2 before hitting the Yucatan and crossing the Bay of Campeche and hitting E. Mexico as a TS.

Florence- The first storm to form east of the Antilles is able to strengthen into a Cat 4 and recurves to the north. It weakens through interaction with Cuba but landfalls in S. NC as a Cat 2 storm in late July.

Gordon- A weak mid-August TS that dies in Central America

Helene- Late August Cat 1 Hurricane that forms in the Gulf and landfalls in Texas near Houston.

Isaac - Late August Cape Verde deal that reaches Cat 5 status in the Caribbean before recurving and taking a Katrina like path except that it hits West Florida as a Cat 4 (150mph). The biggie of the year.

Joyce- An early Sept. Cape Verde TS that is drawn northward where it meanders until it is "consumed" by Hurricane Kirk.

Kirk- Another Sept. Cape Verde storm that attains Cat 5 status before weakening slightly, hitting the poor Yucatan, and then recurving into the Gulf where it landfalls in East Texas as a Cat 3.

Leslie- A mid-September TS that develops in the ITCZ but dies a lonely death in the open Atlantic. Briefly reaches Cat 3 status while out there.

Michael- Late Sept. Gulf TS that hits the Western Gulf as a 60mph storm.

Nadine- A late-Sept. storm that reaches Cat 3 status while forming in the West Caribbean before going through West Cuba and the S. tip of Florida before riding up the coast and becoming extra-tropical near New England.

Oscar- Strong TS Develops in the S. Caribbean in early October but is caught by a frontal boundary and recurves out to sea, hitting Hispaniola on the way out. Dies in Central Atlantic.

Patty- Mid-October. A Central Atlantic oceanic storm that manages to become a Cat 1 cane but fizzles a la Epsilon, Delta, Zeta.

Rafael- Mid-October. A transformed extra-tropical low that reaches TS storm status but the convection is weak and it fizzles into a remnant low.

Sandy- To end the year, in Mid-November, a surprise storm will form from an extra-tropical low and reach Cat 2 status but will stay in the open ocean, maybe sending some rain bands Bermuda's way.

Tony - nope
Valerie - nope
William - nope

and no, there will not be another Epsilon next year

Well, actually Mid-June but I don't think this had extra-tropical origins... this throws off my timetable a lot since Beryl and Chris haven't formed yet

[BUD]

Alberto - TS makes landfall east of Panama City

Beryl - Short lived TS in the Western Gulf

Chris - Forms in the Eastern Carribean landfall near Cozumel as a 95mph cat 1 then disipates in Western Gulf

Debby - Forms in Eastern Carribean hits PR as a TD then intensifies to TS strength before recurving out to sea

Ernesto - Forms in the Eastern Carribean quickly intensifies and passes over Jamaica as a fairly large 140mph cat 4. Storm weakens then moves over Cuba as a 120 mph cat 3. After that the storm makes landfall near Mobile as a compact 110 mph cat 2.

Florence - Forms north of PR maximum intensity of 100mph before recurving out to sea.

Gordon - Forms in the Central Atlantic grows into a menacing 150mph storm encounters heavy shear and weakens to a still large 110mph storm before making landfall near Charleston.

Helene - Forms south of Jamica brefily aquires TS status before fizziling out eventually hits the Yucatan as a TD.

Isaac - Long track Cape Verde storm, peaks at 165mph with an enourmous CDO over the Turks. The storm weakens to 145 mph and then restrengthens before making landfall near Hollywood as a massive 150mph storm. Isaac then moves over Lake Okeechobee and eventually exits near Daytona Beach as a 105mph storm. The upper keys suffer moderate damage. Loss of life is surprisingly low but total damages reach 100 billion dollars.

Joyce - Forms way out in the Atlantic a TS.

Kirk - Another middle of nowhere fish but this one reaches 120mph.

Leslie - Reaches TS strength over the Turks the system reaches 95mph and 975mb south of Grand Bahama. At around noon Leslie begins to explosivly intensify and within a period of 24 hours the central pressure plumets to 896mb with sustained winds of 175mph, just 9 hours from the Florida Keys. Leslie weakens slightly to 901mb with reported sustained winds of 165mph before hitting the keys. The 15 mile wide eye passes right over Marathon. Key West is saved of the worst damage by the compact nature of the storm however Marathon up to Islamorda are completely destroyed. The system then turns north and undergoes an EWRC and encounters light shear. The wind field expands and the winds drop to 145mph before Leslie makes landfall over Sanibel Island. Cape Coral and especially Fort. Myers suffer heavy damage. Bonita Springs and Naples are devistated by over 20 foot surges. The storm rapidly weakens inland and exits near Daytona Beach causing additional wind damage to homes that had just gone through Issac.

Due to the rapid intensification there is little time to evacuate. For the few that did evacuate the Keys passage is slow through the Upper Keys which sustained moderate damage from Issac. Southern Miami-Dade is impassable from Issac just two weeks ago. 800 lose there lives, mostly in Marathon which recieves a 17 foot surge. The Cape Coral/Ft. Myers area also suffers heavy casualties. Response is slowed by washed out roads and a still devestated Miami. Leslie is the last storm of 2006 (ie I'm going to bed).

Not that the above would happen in just one year I just wanted two illustrate one potential bad scenario (The Keys).

HEY!! Do not wish anything into my neck of the woods!!!LOL BUT Gordon do same to me to be a SC storm.

[jusforsean]

what ever happened to those predictions from psychics and moon observationists? can someone post them here if you have them so we can compare?

[StrongWind]

Florida Count 5

Hey, what have you got against Florida? And I see you saved the main event for yourself. What about the majors' opinions that US strikes would be further north or gulfish and not so much Fl? No where in there do I see a catagory 4+ taking out NJ/NY. We Floridians demand a recount.

[FloridaDiver]

Florida Count 5

Hey, what have you got against Florida? And I see you saved the main event for yourself. What about the majors' opinions that US strikes would be further north or gulfish and not so much Fl? No where in there do I see a catagory 4+ taking out NJ/NY. We Floridians demand a recount.

Ahhhh.. I have absolutely nothing against Floridians, I’m a “native” born and raised in South Florida and a survivor of that mess in 92 so I don’t take any storm lightly. If we are in that 10 year cycle that most weather historians are talking about then 5 hits is not out of the question…

[wxmann_91]

I can't believe I didn't make a prediction yet.

Beryl - Late June tropical storm, originates in Caribbean and dies out in the Yucatan. Not bad.

Chris - Early July tropical storm, originates in GOM and hits Texas. Little damage until it stalls out over central Texas. Though it helps out the drought, it will cause major flooding.

Debby - This doesn't form until late late July/early early August. Massive storm that bottoms out at Cat 4. Originates in between CV Islands and Lesser Antilles. Devastates the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Then moves northward, makes landfall at Cape Cod and then Maine as a marginal 2 but devastates the area.

Ernesto - Early August CV fish as it gets owned by outflow from Debby. Peaks at TS strength.

Florence - Yet another early August storm (early August will be extremely active). Form subtropically invof Bahamas and makes landfall near Cape Canaveral Florida. Weakens then moves back out over sea and intensifies to a Cat 1. Erratic track, scaring Carolinas, but ends up recurving.

Gordon - Originating in late August near the CV islands, Gordon will be one heck of a Caribbean monster. Devastates Haiti with floods, first Cat 5 to ever make landfall in Jamaica, and inflicts severe damage to Cancun as its eye grazes the northern Yucatan. Bottoms out at 900 mb over Caribbean, and it bottoms out again over the GOM at 910 mb. Weakens to marginal 4 before hitting Matamoros, MX, devastates that area as well as Brownsville.

Helene - Early September Cat 4 CV fish. Threatens Bermuda.

Isaac - Develops near Greater Antilles in mid September. Struggles throughout its life but it makes landfall near Lafayette, LA as a marginal 1. Panic in New Orleans, mass evacuation, but it turns out to be a dud.

Joyce - Another mid September CV Cat 4 fish that gets dangerously close to the United States but recurves.

Kirk - This Cat 3 develops right on the heels of Joyce, another CV. Recurves well before threatening land masses.

Leslie - An interesting TS in late September. Doesn't know where to go in between Bermuda and Bahamas, doesn't do anything or go anywhere before it dies.

Michael - Early October storm that develops in Caribbean. Recurves before hitting Florida and peaks at Cat 2. Some damage in Cuba.

Nadine - November STS that develops near Bermuda and becomes a tropical storm. Does nothing at first but phases with a larger extratropical storm just west of Europe and afterwards the storm devastates the Netherlands and Scandanavia.

El Nino will set in after September, thus the quiet ending.

14 named storms/8 hurricanes/5 majors

[Epsilon_Fan]

Hmmm, let the newb try

Alberto- I'd say a mid-May TS with extratropical origins... stays at sea

Beryl - An early June Hurricane (75-90mph) that runs up the East Coast but only brushes the coast (outer banks)

Chris- Late June TS that landfalls in the Yucatan and dissipates

Debby- Early July Hurricane that enters Gulf as Cat 2 and landfalls in Northern Gulf as a Cat 1 or strong TS.

Ernesto- Mid-July Caribbean storm that intensifies to a Cat 2 before hitting the Yucatan and crossing the Bay of Campeche and hitting E. Mexico as a TS.

Florence- The first storm to form east of the Antilles is able to strengthen into a Cat 4 and recurves to the north. It weakens through interaction with Cuba but landfalls in S. NC as a Cat 2 storm in late July.

Gordon- A weak mid-August TS that dies in Central America

Helene- Late August Cat 1 Hurricane that forms in the Gulf and landfalls in Texas near Houston.

Isaac - Late August Cape Verde deal that reaches Cat 5 status in the Caribbean before recurving and taking a Katrina like path except that it hits West Florida as a Cat 4 (150mph). The biggie of the year.

Joyce- An early Sept. Cape Verde TS that is drawn northward where it meanders until it is "consumed" by Hurricane Kirk.

Kirk- Another Sept. Cape Verde storm that attains Cat 5 status before weakening slightly, hitting the poor Yucatan, and then recurving into the Gulf where it landfalls in East Texas as a Cat 3.

Leslie- A mid-September TS that develops in the ITCZ but dies a lonely death in the open Atlantic. Briefly reaches Cat 3 status while out there.

Michael- Late Sept. Gulf TS that hits the Western Gulf as a 60mph storm.

Nadine- A late-Sept. storm that reaches Cat 3 status while forming in the West Caribbean before going through West Cuba and the S. tip of Florida before riding up the coast and becoming extra-tropical near New England.

Oscar- Strong TS Develops in the S. Caribbean in early October but is caught by a frontal boundary and recurves out to sea, hitting Hispaniola on the way out. Dies in Central Atlantic.

Patty- Mid-October. A Central Atlantic oceanic storm that manages to become a Cat 1 cane but fizzles a la Epsilon, Delta, Zeta.

Rafael- Mid-October. A transformed extra-tropical low that reaches TS storm status but the convection is weak and it fizzles into a remnant low.

Sandy- To end the year, in Mid-November, a surprise storm will form from an extra-tropical low and reach Cat 2 status but will stay in the open ocean, maybe sending some rain bands Bermuda's way.

Tony - nope
Valerie - nope
William - nope

and no, there will not be another Epsilon next year

hmmm, too bad this wasn't Beryl and earlier in the month... I would have been close!

[decgirl66]

I didn't even realize my name was at the end of the list..Valerie! I hope it is huge and beautiful, and STRONG...and a fish!

[King-6]

King-6
Monthly Storm
Predictions for “2006”

June:
1 Named System
Tropical Storm Alberto


July:
3 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Beryl
Major Hurricane Chris
Hurricane Debby


August:
4 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Florence
Tropical Storm Gordon
Major Hurricane Helene


September:
4 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Isaac
Major Hurricane Joyce
Tropical Storm Kirk
Major Hurricane Leslie


October:
4 Named Systems
Hurricane Michael
Tropical Storm Nadine
Major Hurricane Oscar
Hurricane Patty

November:
3 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Rafael
Major Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Tony

June 1, 2006 thru November 30, 2006

[cheezyWXguy]

YAY! I like this guy...hes got my name as a major! woohoo! go Chris!

[skysummit]

LOL...you know what's funny? I'm hearing a lot about "Helene" being one of the big ones this season. I have to agree. "Helene" just sounds bad....kinda like Betsy, Camille, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma. I don't know, it just fits in the mix.

[AndrewSmith2500]

Alberto - come and gone.

Beryl - forms in the west Caribbean. Crosses the Yucatan as a 40mph storm, then enters the Gulf moving northeastward a la Cindy. Strengthens to an 85mph Cat 1 hurricane before weakening to a 65mph TS before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. (June 27 - July 2)

Chris - short-lived fish storm in the central Atlantic out of a non-tropical low that moves over warmer water. Never gets above 50mph. (July 10 - 12)

Debby - first major hurricane that brings Cape Verde to an early start. It remains away from land however but takes a long track across the Atlantic, peaking at 120mph. (July 23 - Aug. 2)

Ernesto - short-lived storm in the Bay of Campeche that quickly strikes Mexico as a 45mph storm. (Aug. 7 - 8)

Florence - has Jeanne written all over it, except a bit farther north. Makes a 270-degree turn back to Florida after forming north of Puerto Rico, peaking as a Cat 4 with 140mph winds. Less than 12 hours after Gordon's Gulf landfall (see below), Florence makes landfall near St. Augustine with 115mph winds. (Aug. 16 - 23)

Gordon - forms out of a blob in the Bay of Campeche, but unlike Ernesto, it turns northeast then northwest, allowing it to explode as it roars towards the Rio Grande Valley. Makes landfall at the mouth of the Rio Grande with 145mph winds (peak intensity) after rapidly intensifying before landfall. It occurs on the same day that Florence hits Florida. (Aug. 18 - 23)

Helene - the Katrina of 2006. It is a long-lived Cape Verde storm that twice reaches Category 5 in the Atlantic (peaking at 175mph and 903mb - record low for the open Atlantic) and becomes incredibly large as it weakens (slowly) on its way up the East Coast. It spends a lot of time over the Gulf Stream which prevents much weakening before brushing Cape Hatteras with 145mph winds and slamming into Chesapeake Bay with 125mph winds and hurricane winds affecting a 180-mile radius. (Aug. 25 - Sept. 9)

Isaac - short-lived weak storm that eventually gets absorbed by the much larger Helene while peaking with 50mph winds in the central Atlantic. (Sept. 1 - 3)

Joyce - forms abruptly in the Caribbean, quickly makes landfall in Central America with 60mph winds and then dissipates and reforms in the Pacific. (Sept. 2 - 4)

Kirk - long-lived Cape Verde storm that loops its way across the Atlantic without ever making landfall. However, it becomes very strong and actually becomes a Category 5 with 160mph winds at one point. It is the third longest-lasting storm on record. (Sept. 4 - 30)

Leslie - forms in the Bahamas and immediately tracks north. It sends fear into the hearts of the East Coast residents already devastated by Helene. However, it turns away safely and avoids land, peaking with 110mph winds. (Sept. 10 - 15)

Michael - first develops off the west coast of Florida, quickly strengthens over the Loop Current to a strong Cat 1 with 90mph winds before turning north back onto the Florida Panhandle as a strong tropical storm. (Sept. 16 - 20)

Nadine - yet another Cape Verde storm on a more southerly track, but just as destructive (except in the Caribbean this time). It becomes a Category 4 hurricane twice, crosses numerous islands before turning north after peaking with 150mph winds. (Sept. 25 - Oct. 4)

Oscar - forms in the Bahamas but quickly turns northeast away from land. Peaks at 70mph. (Sept. 30 - Oct. 5)

Patty - slow-moving rainmaker in Central America forms south of the Yucatan and remains poorly organized before it makes landfall in Honduras with 65mph winds, after 72 hours of rain. (Oct. 12 - 15)

Rafael - first forms in the western Caribbean just after Patty leaves, then after crossing the Yucatan absolutely explodes over the Loop Current, jumping from Cat 1 to a strong Cat 4 in 15 hours with 155mph winds. Makes landfall near Pensacola with 125mph winds. (Oct. 18 - 27)

Sandy - forms in the central Caribbean but doesn't last long and degenerates quickly after only gaining 40mph winds. (Oct. 31 - Nov. 1)

Tony - develops out of a non-tropical low in the central Atlantic and strengthens to a solid hurricane with 85mph winds without making any land approaches. (Nov. 21 - 30)

Valerie - closes out the season with a rare storm that is reminiscent of Hurricane Ginny with snow on the outer bands. Forms out of a "perfect storm"-style scenario, actually becomes tropical and moves north into Atlantic Canada as a 90mph "hybrid" hurricane (after the season ends!) flanked by cold air but still with some tropical characteristics. (Dec. 4 - 14)

Complete listing of storms with dates and intensities:

ALBERTO: June 10-14 / 70mph / 995mb
BERYL: June 27-July 2 / 85mph / 982mb
CHRIS: July 10-12 / 50mph / 997mb
DEBBY: July 23-Aug. 2 / 120mph / 952mb
ERNESTO: Aug. 7-8 / 45mph / 1003mb
FLORENCE: Aug. 16-23 / 140mph / 935mb
GORDON: Aug. 18-23 / 145mph / 940mb
HELENE: Aug. 25-Sept. 9 / 175mph / 903mb
ISAAC: Sept. 1-3 / 50mph / 1001mb
JOYCE: Sept. 2-4 / 60mph / 998mb
KIRK: Sept. 4-30 / 160mph / 924mb
LESLIE: Sept. 10-15 / 110mph / 955mb
MICHAEL: Sept. 16-20 / 90mph / 978mb
NADINE: Sept. 25-Oct. 4 / 150mph / 927mb
OSCAR: Sept. 30-Oct. 5 / 70mph / 990mb
PATTY: Oct. 12-15 / 65mph / 994mb
RAFAEL: Oct. 18-27 / 155mph / 908mb
SANDY: Oct. 31-Nov. 1 / 40mph / 1006mb
TONY: Nov. 21-30 / 85mph / 975mb
VALERIE: Dec. 4-14 / 90mph / 961mb

If you think the names Debby, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Kirk, Nadine and Rafael will be retired, what would you think of this list?

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Dina
Ernesto
Fanny
Gary
Heidi
Isaac
Joyce
Kent
Leslie
Michael
Nancy
Oscar
Patty
Roger
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

[AndrewSmith2500]

King-6
Monthly Storm
Predictions for “2006”

June:
1 Named System
Tropical Storm Alberto


July:
3 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Beryl
Major Hurricane Chris
Hurricane Debby


August:
4 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Florence
Tropical Storm Gordon
Major Hurricane Helene


September:
4 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Isaac
Major Hurricane Joyce
Tropical Storm Kirk
Major Hurricane Leslie


October:
4 Named Systems
Hurricane Michael
Tropical Storm Nadine
Major Hurricane Oscar
Hurricane Patty

November:
3 Named Systems
Tropical Storm Rafael
Major Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Tony

June 1, 2006 thru November 30, 2006

If you think the names Chris, Helene, Joyce, Leslie, Oscar and Sandy will be retired, what would you think of this list?

Alberto
Beryl
Chuck
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Heidi
Isaac
Jenna
Kirk
Lauren
Michael
Nadine
Orion
Patty
Rafael
Sheila
Tony
Valerie
William

[Swimdude]

Helene – Oh yes, end of August brings up the first CAT 5 monster of the year, may give Wilma a run for the “Intensity Queen” title. Sorry, West Palm Beach, all those years of never experiencing a direct hit will end, and in a very sad way, remember Floyd? This beast is not turning north. Florida Count 3

I just read a novel in which a woman named Helene was a crazy gal in a mental institution. hehe.