Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[superfly]

I don't think there's much point to looking at Cape Verde waves this time of year, they simply don't happen this early.

[gatorcane]

I don't think there's much point to looking at Cape Verde waves this time of year, they simply don't happen this early.

given how strong these waves are I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them develop before the CV season actually begins - in the late June or early July timeframe.

The Wave Luis is pointing to is extremely impressive for June as you can see the twist and the clouds "spiraling" - not typical for June at all.

[gatorcane]

I must say that the tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa is a very powerful system for this time of the year. It is impressive to note its very well-developed signature. You can definitely see banding around the system as well as a very well-defined mid-level circulation near 9N, 19W. I honestly can't say if this system will develop or not being the time of the year, but I can only say that if this were August or September this system would already be going for tropical cyclone classification.

There is plenty of moisture for this system to work with right now (which is an oddity for this time of year) and upper-level winds appear to be from the east (generally favorable although they appear to be rather strong). SSTs have just warmed up to near 80-82* in the area. This is not exactly the most favorable for this area as the atmosphere might not yet be very unstable at the lower levels for deep thunderstorm activity. However, if we see a resurgence tonight (nocturnal maxima) of very deep thunderstorms around that possible MLC near (9N, 19W), all bets are off.

It's going to be a very interesting 12-24 hours coming up...

If Hyperstorm and Cycloneye are taking note folks - it is unusual for June to see such strong waves...so we should pay attention to them.

[skysummit]

I don't think there's much point to looking at Cape Verde waves this time of year, they simply don't happen this early.

Then why are you reading this thread?

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest image, very nice presentation on satellite pics. Let's see if the convection fires overnight ....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[HurricaneHunter914]

Has some sort of circulation to it IMO though it needs some more convection for it to have a real chance at development.

[abajan]

Don't look now folks but it appears the MJO is also favorable for development of Cape Verde systems:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

[caribepr]

I don't think there's much point to looking at Cape Verde waves this time of year, they simply don't happen this early.

Not being rude, but truth? Weather does what weather wants to do. Yes, there are fairly well established patterns to look at, but like rules, they are there to be broken. Is there an emoticon for a shrug? We watch, we wait, we hope for the best, prepared for the worst, because human time and patterns mean very little to the Mother.

[jaxfladude]

*wish-casting alert*
May ALL of these possible and any future major and dangerous CV storms become "A Fish Storm"<----No more land-falling of any major tropical systems ANYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN!!!!
Just have some more systems alike "Alberto"* for those of you fellow Storm2K Message Board members who are experiencing drought conditions

PS....I hope that you get your much needed rain sooner than later.

*Minus the plane crash and serious damage obviously

[cycloneye]

Latest LSU Image



It appears to have a low to mid level circulation around 8.5n-18w.But later tonight hopefully quickScat will show if there is circulation there.However convection is not deep right now.

[skysummit]

WOW!!! That looks very impressive!

[Cyclenall]

Oh my goodness that looks great!!!! If this had more convection then I'd call a warning of something happening over there. You know what would be scary, a depression forming over there this early and then tracking arcoss the Atlantic.

[bigmike]

This got any model support?

[SouthFloridawx]

This got any model support?

It has the past few nights but, it dropped it earlier today.

[CHRISTY]

Guys this wave looks real impressive!Here are 2 images!

[skysummit]

Here's another look at the wave....and its friends following it:
NRL Eastern Atlantic and Africa

[abajan]

WOW!!! That looks very impressive!

You can say that again! I had no idea it was so well developed. The pinwheel spin is very evident in that shot.

June too soon? Perhaps but this June may be the exception to the rule... Just maybe.

Good grief, man. If this is how things are shaping up now, what's Aug/Sept. going to look like out there?

[Derek Ortt]

better form within the next day or so while its in the monsoon trough, like TD 2 of 2000 and 2003, or else its not going to form at all

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

...CORRECTION FOR ISSUANCE TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
COVERING A BROAD AREA UP TO EIGHT DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. MAINLY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM ABOUT 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.

[cycloneye]

Christy,your images are old,here is the very latest same image you posted but ahead in time.As I said before lacks deep convection but the cyclonic turning is evident.