Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[drezee]

Let's look back to 2004 and 2005, almost every wave that passed through the islands increased in convection in June and July. Not that they developed, but the convection increased. Later than year, we have a lot of Caribbean development. There have been about 3 that have done that this year. Most notably a couple of days ago. Let's see what happens when this wave hits the islands.

[decgirl66]

So, just curious..if you were on the coast of Africa where these waves are all forming...what are the conditions there? I mean, it it just really stormy and raining? Is the surf really high? I know these are strange questions, but inquiring minds want to know!

[O Town]

So, just curious..if you were on the coast of Africa where these waves are all forming...what are the conditions there? I mean, it it just really stormy and raining? Is the surf really high? I know these are strange questions, but inquiring minds want to know!

ITCZ

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/itcz.htm

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Right now it looks like we are back to being quiet in the tropics.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[The Hurricaner]

Your joking right? Its not too quiet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Right now it looks like we are back to being quiet in the tropics.

let's see if you are saying the same thing in a week..

[Cyclenall]

It may seem quiet but things can change so fast in the tropics it will make your head spin.

[shaggy]

is it just me or is that wave 1000 miles out from the leewards looking like its got some spin starting its really hard to tell but it sure looks like?

[skysummit]

I know these shear forecasts aren't most accurate, however, if even half of this holds true, the next 36 to at least 72 hours looks like it's jackpot city as for as wind shear goes for the Gulf, Carribean, and parts of the Atlantic.

[CHRISTY]

WOW!Thats incredible if that would to hold true.....but yea those shear maps sometimes arent good to use.

[skysummit]

No they're not Christy....it showed favorable conditions when Alberto was struggling. LOL

[JamesFromMaine2]

well with Alberto it wasn't just shear that was giving him a hard time it was also alot of dry air!

[Weatherfreak000]

well with Alberto it wasn't just shear that was giving him a hard time it was also alot of dry air!

Exactly. And Alberto still blew up.

[Hyperstorm]

I must say that the tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa is a very powerful system for this time of the year. It is impressive to note its very well-developed signature. You can definitely see banding around the system as well as a very well-defined mid-level circulation near 9N, 19W. I honestly can't say if this system will develop or not being the time of the year, but I can only say that if this were August or September this system would already be going for tropical cyclone classification.

There is plenty of moisture for this system to work with right now (which is an oddity for this time of year) and upper-level winds appear to be from the east (generally favorable although they appear to be rather strong). SSTs have just warmed up to near 80-82* in the area. This is not exactly the most favorable for this area as the atmosphere might not yet be very unstable at the lower levels for deep thunderstorm activity. However, if we see a resurgence tonight (nocturnal maxima) of very deep thunderstorms around that possible MLC near (9N, 19W), all bets are off.

It's going to be a very interesting 12-24 hours coming up...

[cycloneye]

I must say that the tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa is a very powerful system for this time of the year. It is impressive to note its very well-developed signature. You can definitely see banding around the system as well as a very well-defined mid-level circulation near 9N, 19W. I honestly can't say if this system will develop or not being the time of the year, but I can only say that if this were August or September this system would already be going for tropical cyclone classification.

There is plenty of moisture for this system to work with right now (which is an oddity for this time of year) and upper-level winds appear to be from the east (generally favorable), but SSTs are only marginally favorable for this area (80-82*). Due to this, the atmosphere is not very unstable at the lower levels for deep thunderstorm activity. However, if we see a resurgence tonight (nocturnal maxima) of very deep thunderstorms around that possible MLC near (9N, 19W), all bets are off.

It's going to be a very interesting 12-24 hours coming up...

LSU Image



At closeup image above you can see clearly how the clouds are looking in a spiral way.However deep convection is not plenty.As you said let's see at the norturnal maxima and see if convection redevelops.Indeed it is the best wave so far that has emerged Africa,and there haved been already a few impressive ones comming out.It has to cross many hurdles before it reaches the Caribbean so let's see how this one does in it's westward track.Let's see if quickScat can make a pass thru that area tonight and shows some turning in the arrows.

[skysummit]

This isn't too good that each wave that emerges off of Africa looks better than the previous one. I have to agree though, this is without a doubt the best looking wave yet.

[Ixolib]

I'm wondering what is the shortest period of time between a wave emerging off the coast of Africa and then that same wave becoming a full-fledged hurricane? Surely someone here knows the answer.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I must say that the tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa is a very powerful system for this time of the year. It is impressive to note its very well-developed signature. You can definitely see banding around the system as well as a very well-defined mid-level circulation near 9N, 19W. I honestly can't say if this system will develop or not being the time of the year, but I can only say that if this were August or September this system would already be going for tropical cyclone classification.

There is plenty of moisture for this system to work with right now (which is an oddity for this time of year) and upper-level winds appear to be from the east (generally favorable although they appear to be rather strong). SSTs have just warmed up to near 80-82* in the area. This is not exactly the most favorable for this area as the atmosphere might not yet be very unstable at the lower levels for deep thunderstorm activity. However, if we see a resurgence tonight (nocturnal maxima) of very deep thunderstorms around that possible MLC near (9N, 19W), all bets are off.

It's going to be a very interesting 12-24 hours coming up...

I agree the overall sal south of 15 north is very very faverable more then last year. In overall the Atlantic looks to be below avg shear. Very faverable looking for this season.

[gatorcane]

I must say that the tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa is a very powerful system for this time of the year. It is impressive to note its very well-developed signature. You can definitely see banding around the system as well as a very well-defined mid-level circulation near 9N, 19W. I honestly can't say if this system will develop or not being the time of the year, but I can only say that if this were August or September this system would already be going for tropical cyclone classification.

There is plenty of moisture for this system to work with right now (which is an oddity for this time of year) and upper-level winds appear to be from the east (generally favorable), but SSTs are only marginally favorable for this area (80-82*). Due to this, the atmosphere is not very unstable at the lower levels for deep thunderstorm activity. However, if we see a resurgence tonight (nocturnal maxima) of very deep thunderstorms around that possible MLC near (9N, 19W), all bets are off.

It's going to be a very interesting 12-24 hours coming up...

LSU Image



At closeup image above you can see clearly how the clouds are looking in a spiral way.However deep convection is not plenty.As you said let's see at the norturnal maxima and see if convection redevelops.Indeed it is the best wave so far that has emerged Africa,and there haved been already a few impressive ones comming out.It has to cross many hurdles before it reaches the Caribbean so let's see how this one does in it's westward track.Let's see if quickScat can make a pass thru that area tonight and shows some turning in the arrows.

Luis yes there is definitely a nice spin with that wave but the convection has diminished. It certainly doesn't look like June out there...each wave is looking better and better