Watching the BOC

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tailgater
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Watching the BOC

#1 Postby tailgater » Wed Jun 14, 2006 1:04 pm

Just because it's slow right now, Otherwise I wouldn't be mentioning this.
@ 18N-89.3W over eastern Mexico there is a low level swirl heading WNW? with very few T-storms but I think this will change as it enters the BOC.
Here's some of my reasoning.

Climatology this region for this time of year.
Shear now
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Shear forecast
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Steering currents, fairly weak http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

And most of all there's nothing else that looks very exciting out there, which is probably a good thing but I need some stinking rain.
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#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:38 am

This might be a good early call tailgater.
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#3 Postby tailgater » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:55 am

Thanks dixiebreeze, that UUL over Texas is diving SW into Mexico and enhancing it a bit. The steering currents have changed a little to keep it out over water longer but Upper levels winds aren't that good yet.
So do you think it has much of a chance?
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:01 am

Looks like it could enhance moisture and thus convection over the western Gulf States over the weekend as it rounds the Ridge and gets drawn northward ahead of a trough expected over the Mississippi Valley this weekend. Something to keep an eye on but chances of TC development is very slim unless convection deepens and remains persistant.
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#5 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:02 am

Most of the Texas NWSFOs are bullish this morning on the development of precipitation for the state this weekend but no mention of "tropical" development at this time.

We sure could use a break from the Western Sizzler Ridge that has been baking us for 2-3 weeks. :roll:

Maybe JB will elaborate tonight on Talkin' Tropics about this system as he seems to think the western GOM after June 20th will be active.
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#6 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:08 am

Well the TW in the carribean should enhance convection in the BOC also.
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#7 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:15 am

global models from what iam hereing are suggesting things will be quiet for a while....but then thats what we thought earlier in the season and then came ALBERTO.
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#8 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:07 pm

Convection increasing in BOC and GOM this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg
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#9 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:11 pm

looks like a front
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#10 Postby southerngale » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:28 pm

fact789 wrote:looks like a front


It's not a front...trust me. Image
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#11 Postby TS Zack » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:29 pm

Its a tropical wave interacting with a cut-off upper low over South Tx.

Should bring much needed rain to La/Tx!
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#12 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:30 pm

good
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#13 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:32 pm

We could well use the rain... and some respite from this oppressive heat! :uarrow:

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#14 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:43 pm

Can some of that rain come toward me too? It is dry, hot, and humid here.
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#15 Postby Noah » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:45 pm

What is BOC? :oops: :oops: :oops:
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#16 Postby hicksta » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:46 pm

bay of campeche
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#17 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:11 pm

That TW looks like a bent over skinny woman with a messy hairdo.Beryl? :lol:
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#18 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:52 pm

Image


Percentages are good in the BOC now..
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#19 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:13 pm

As others have stated, give it a few days..Although void of convection the wave is about 48-72 hours from the BOC/GOM
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#20 Postby feederband » Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:18 pm

Noah wrote:What is BOC? :oops: :oops: :oops:



Its been awhile but I too asked this very same question...
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