Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

HurricaneHunter914 · #181 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:31 pm

Well right now the shear over it is really high, but the shear in front of it decreases dramtically.

Cyclenall · #182 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:35 pm

The Hurricaner wrote:Yeah, and the conditions werent EXACTLY the same. Alberto was a rare thing. But yes i know anything could happen.

Well it looks like everything this season is going to be rare then. Rare this, rare that, I don't see how Alberto was rare at all. If you want rare, Zeta should speak for himself.

What affecting it right now? or is it just loosing some of its signature for now reason.

It has this pattern that I explained on another page where these waves have "up's and down's". They look sick but then come back better then ever. It has done this non-stop during the past 4 days. It's not going anywhere guys

.

Actually guys this wave to me is showing signs of going poof....besides shear is still a bit to high!lets see what happens in the coming days.

This thing looked like it was going to Poof 4-6 times already. It's not going to poof this time or the next time. Read above.

I watched him about 30-45min ago and he said that the waves aren't expected to develop. Ill keep an eye on them just in case. And i think we'll have to see this one in the morning as its not impressive now.

The waves aren't expected to develop right now. Give it a few days.

Audrey2Katrina · #183 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:39 pm

The waves aren't expected to develop right now. Give it a few days.

Bear in mind that the vast majority of waves do NOT become cyclones.

A2K

HurricaneHunter914 · #184 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:41 pm

I don't think tis even going to develop, if it continues this WNW Track this wave will run into the East Coast of the U.S.

The Hurricaner · #185 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:47 pm

What state are you thinking??? :?:

Cyclenall · #186 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:48 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
The waves aren't expected to develop right now. Give it a few days.

Bear in mind that the vast majority of waves do NOT become cyclones.

A2K

Yep. I have that in mind. There has been tons of waves already (30-40) I think.

I don't think tis even going to develop, if it continues this WNW Track this wave will run into the East Coast of the U.S.

Now your changing your mind. It's going to run into land sometime later down the road so it has time. I'm not sure about the US though.

HurricaneHunter914 · #187 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:56 pm

Well earlier there was a thread about someone saying that this wave was headed towards North Carolina. For someone reason that post has lead me to think that if this does hold together it might hit somewhere along the East Coast. Now why it may not develop is one it hasn't held up any strong convection for very long periods of time, two shear is way to high over it right now, and three if it does get into the Atlantic the SSTs aren't warm enough to support tropical development.

#188 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:56 pm

ahhh, looks can be deceiving. If our wave was blowing up with convection, there would be many people chiming in regarding its potential.
When I look at this wave, I am VERY IMPRESSED. Although it doesn't have the convection, I am forecasting it to blossum after passing just west of Jamaica where the shear is alot lighter.....

We need to watch it. I give it a 40% chance of development in the NW Caribbean come 3-4 days.

Cyclenall · #189 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:59 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Well earlier there was a thread about someone saying that this wave was headed towards North Carolina. For someone reason that post has lead me to think that if this does hold together it might hit somewhere along the East Coast. Now why it may not develop is one it hasn't held up any strong convection for very long periods of time, two shear is way to high over it right now, and three if it does get into the Atlantic the SSTs aren't warm enough to support tropical development.

How can this hit North Carolina? That would be a weird track if it happened (it won't). It's past the east coast now. Also, everything else like the SST's and shear will change later (like you said earlier but now has changed).

HurricaneHunter914 · #190 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:00 am

But don't you think right now its a little too high in latitude for huge development (notice the word "huge")? Right now its moving WNW, which would help a slow movement towards the Atlantic and right now the Atlantic isn't as warm as it is in August.

The Hurricaner · #191 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:03 am

Its in the carribean...

HurricaneHunter914 · #192 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:04 am

I know but its in the NE Caribbean currently moving WNW which might bring it into the ATlantic.

The Hurricaner · #193 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:12 am

Isnt this the one we are discussing?

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA NE TO HISPANIOLA.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE 16N67W-20N78W INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

HouTXmetro · #194 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:21 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I know but its in the NE Caribbean currently moving WNW which might bring it into the ATlantic.

Actually if you extropolate a WNW movement that would take it through the Yucatan Channel. Only way this thing gets pulled up the East Coast is if it develops now and I don't see that happeneing for the next few days.

#195 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:23 am

Are we talking about the central Carribean wave still??? If so, there's virtually no way that it can get into the Atlantic. The stearing is too quick down there right now, and by the time it slows up, will be the time it's in the western Carribean and entering the Yucatan Channel.

The Hurricaner · #196 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:23 am

LOL yeah. I think hurricanehunter was confused or something.

By the way, look how poor it looks now: http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/sat ... large.html

#197 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:28 am

Yea, it does look pretty sickly right now, however, there is a little structure left to it still. If it can hold on for another day or two, it may have a chance. If not, it'll just be another June wave.

Extremeweatherguy · #198 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:36 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I don't think tis even going to develop, if it continues this WNW Track this wave will run into the East Coast of the U.S.

If the wave in the Carrib. right now somehow managed to get to the east coast of the U.S. I would be HIGHLY amazed. Looking at it's path and current location, I would say that the chance of that is about the same as a Cat. 5 forming in January.

Extremeweatherguy · #199 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:39 am

I still feel that these waves will not be the features that directly form into something tropical...I feel that they may instead just add a little umph to something that may try to form in the Gulf this weekend or next week. They will be the help, but not the main event IMO.

CHRISTY · #200 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:46 am

our caribbean wave has gone....

Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

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