SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic Thread #4

[windycity]

i figured the cooldown would be brief, given the time of year. I expect future problems in the Gom, espeically when we see the shear decrease.

[P.K.]

Did these threads not used to include Pacific anomalies before? I'll post this here anyway as I have been doing unless advised otherwise.


CURRENT STATUS as at 14th June 2006
Next update expected by 28th June 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: Neutral climate patterns expected to remain in the Pacific.

Climate patterns across the Pacific Ocean are neutral, and they're likely to stay that way for the remainder of 2006 given current observations and computer model guidance.

The near-equatorial Pacific has continued to warm gradually both on and below the surface in response to weaker than average Trade Winds. As a result, most of the tropical Pacific is now somewhat warmer than normal.

The atmosphere has responded to the warming trend in the Pacific, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) falling to −10 for May and reaching −12 as an approximate average for the past 30 days (see graph below). In addition, cloudiness in the central Pacific has returned to near-average values after being suppressed since August 2005.

Despite warming in the Pacific and negative SOI values, there is only a low chance of an El Niño developing in 2006. This is because the recent trends have been weak (large-scale ocean/atmosphere coupling has not yet occurred), we're nearing the end of the ENSO transition window, and computer model outlooks clearly favour a persistence of neutral conditions this year.

ENSO events (El Niño and La Niña) usually show the first clear signs of evolution between March and June, with some developing as late as the end of July. If a clear El Niño signature fails to emerge by early August, the chance of an event occurring this year will be very low.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

Climate patterns across the Pacific Ocean are neutral, and they're likely to stay that way for the remainder of 2006 given current observations and computer model guidance.

That is the principal statement from the Aussies meaning that no el nino will be around during hurricane season.Yes Peter,this thread when I started it was for both basins but almost all the replies are for the Atlantic I changed the title.But Pacific info can be posted too.

[cycloneye]

Above are the loops of the Atlantic anomalies and surface sea temperatures.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, the heat in the Gulf has exploded since Mar. 22.

[Cyclenall]

Look at the East Pacific ocean water temps, they are cooling down!! That's very wierd and that means El Nino will not occur at all this hurricane season. In fact, shouldn't it be a La Nina then? (it's gone though but there was a weak one early this year).

[gatorcane]

Looks like the warmest anomalies in the Atlantic Basin are still in the Caribbean - wouldn't be surprised if we get a major or two in there come Aug-Oct. Also the area around where Cycloneye (Luis) is at in Puerto Rico looks very warm and SSTs look to be favorable for development once the shear relaxes.

Thankfully, still running a bit cool off the EC. Overall the SSTs are not as high as they were last year at this time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

[meteorologyman]

did anyone just watch the tropical update on the Weather Channel just a minute ago

[gatorcane]

did anyone just watch the tropical update on the Weather Channel just a minute ago

no why?

[meteorologyman]

Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned about the 3 wave off of Africa and how this is bringing anomalies that is not suppose to occur untill August, and that if this continue that we will see a VERY ACTIVE SEASON, we already knew yes but how he said was very Scary, he said with a deep voice that was not normal

[gatorcane]

Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned about the 3 wave off of Africa and how this is bringing anomalies that is not suppose to occur untill August, and that if this continue that we will see a VERY ACTIVE SEASON, we already knew yes but how he said was very Scary, he said with a deep voice that was not normal

Very interesting , wouldn't surprise me a bit. I would say a very active CV season but the question will be what paths will they take. Will most be just curve out to sea?

[meteorologyman]

(OFF Topic )

If u like CSI: movie is playing right now called Grave Danger it is on now on (SPIKE)

[meteorologyman]

Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned about the 3 wave off of Africa and how this is bringing anomalies that is not suppose to occur untill August, and that if this continue that we will see a VERY ACTIVE SEASON, we already knew yes but how he said was very Scary, he said with a deep voice that was not normal

Very interesting , wouldn't surprise me a bit. I would say a very active CV season but the question will be what paths will they take. Will most be just curve out to sea?

I dont no i wish i could answer that

[Cyclenall]

Looks the the warmest anomalies in the Atlantic Basin are still in the Caribbean - wouldn't be surprised if we get a major or two in there come Aug-Oct. Also the area around where Luis is at looks very warm and SSTs look to be favorable for development once the shear relaxes.

Oh my, a major hurricane come August or September is un-thinkable!! I can't believe anyone would think a major hurricane could form in the peak of the season.

^^^^
The text above is a joke. I'm just joking here.

To add to this I wouldn't be surprised to see a major hurricane in July.

[Cyclenall]

Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned about the 3 wave off of Africa and how this is bringing anomalies that is not suppose to occur untill August, and that if this continue that we will see a VERY ACTIVE SEASON, we already knew yes but how he said was very Scary, he said with a deep voice that was not normal

When these people start acting that way you know somethings up. Most of the time they act normal and cool like most Dr.'s would. I know what your talking about when these pros have deep voices and acting weird because the morning Wilma became a CAT5, the Weather Network in Canada on the news, had this girl had a very weird look on her face when she said Wilma became a CAT5. That was a long sentence!! She also had a worried look on her face and she looked pale. But anyway, thanks for posting that tid bit because I don't get that network in Canada.

OFF Topic )

If u like CSI: movie is playing right now called Grave Danger it is on now on (SPIKE)

I don't watch that show . Also, there is a off-topic forum elsewhere but I know you don't want to start a new topic over it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks the the warmest anomalies in the Atlantic Basin are still in the Caribbean - wouldn't be surprised if we get a major or two in there come Aug-Oct. Also the area around where Luis is at looks very warm and SSTs look to be favorable for development once the shear relaxes.

Oh my, a major hurricane come August or September is un-thinkable!! I can't believe anyone would think a major hurricane could form in the peak of the season.

^^^^
The text above is a joke. I'm just joking here.

To add to this I wouldn't be surprised to see a major hurricane in July.

Well, we did have 2 very strong major hurricanes last year (Dennis and Emily).

[wxman57]

I made an animation of the SSTs from June 15, 2005 and June 15, 2006. It's a good bit cooler in the main development region of the Atlantic this June vs. last. Also cooler in the eastern Pacific.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sstanimjune15.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I made an animation of the SSTs from June 15, 2005 and June 15, 2006. It's a good bit cooler in the main development region of the Atlantic this June vs. last. Also cooler in the eastern Pacific.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sstanimjune15.gif

However, parts of the Gulf look warmer. This may not be good once these storms work into that area.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest SST anomalies... waters have warmed significantly in some areas of the Pacific, especially off the northwest coastal areas of South America and the Isthmus of Panama...

Current SST anomalies

Hmm... the current pattern setup could indicate the potential of a weak El Nino by the end of this year or early next year.

[Weatherfreak000]

Or maybe..it's just...the season there started..and naturally the temps increase...you know that happens regardless of Neutral, El Nino or La Nina....


Not saying your wrong, just those are big words to use, especially given the synopics. El Nino isn't expected anytime soon.