Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[rockyman]

According to the low-level steering chart...the system should slow down somewhat as it nears Jamaica (notice the yellow becomes green):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Swimdude]

"Supposedly,the Gulf of Mexico will be very favorable come late Saturday and Sunday"


Thats reflective in our local forecast in North Texas. Temps are suppose to cool into the upper 80s,and chances for rain into the coming week

Houston is supposed to be in the lower 80's on Friday. Not the most beautiful weather next week - but a nice break from what we've had. I need a tropical experience before I run away to college... Much further inland.

[skysummit]

Boy, the gulf is just wide open, isn't it!

[Javlin]

I am not tring to slam the CMC but the last time I remember it being really Good was with Ivan until the last 24hrs it lost it,strange.If we see a little more consensus from the other models I would not put a whole lot of faith in it.The ridge is forcasted to be anywhere from the FL to TX/LA border in the next 5 days.If our little wave can persist that long then things might become interesting.Last year it was the the GFDL that seemed to perform maybe this year it might be another but they all have weknesses and strenghts.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Does look rather "blank" there doesn't it? All in all, it looks to have been badly beaten after crossing south of Hispaniola.

A2K

[Swimdude]

Here is the IR loop showing how it is remaining in tact nicely. I expect the convection to blossm more once it gets near Jamaica or a little west of it. Now lets see what happens

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

All this really shows me is how much the convection has died away in the last 7 hours.

[HouTXmetro]

Convection has pulsed away. Tommorow will be a key day for this wave to make significant progress towards a decent low IMO.

[CHRISTY]

Actually guys this wave to me is showing signs of going poof....besides shear is still a bit to high!lets see what happens in the coming days.

[HouTXmetro]

Actually guys this wave to me is showing signs of going poof....besides shear is still a bit to high!lets see what happens in the coming days.

In fainess it went poof last night also but convection refired. I will give it another day to show some solid potential for development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Keep in mind that just because the wave itself doesn't develop, that does not mean there will not be development in the Gulf over the next 4-8 days. All the added moisture from this wave could lead to an entirely different area spinning up and developing. Of course it will seem to go poof now, but it is really in a few days when the situation becomes important. JB thinks the chance for Gulf development will start around the 20th (next Tuesday-ish time frame). We will see if he is right..

[CHRISTY]

hey guys before i forget i was watching Steve Lyons on the tropical update....

And he went on to say that typically you have Easterly Trade Winds that blow across the entire basin,especially this time of year.but instead there is an elongated low-pressure-type flow that extends form the west coast of africa out midway to the antilles, were some westerlies are also accuring.he said this would give waves moving through there a better chance of development then they otherwise would have.and we have two of them out there with in this area,both with possible low centers.so in the coming days lets see if they develope deep convection.chrisy

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yup... I do notice the movement of them seems to be more WNW than the previous straight W track earlier... does put a few more in the Caribbean area.

A2K

[beachbum_al]

Our local met in Mobile mentions something about the carribean. Nothing major but watching it.

[meteorologyman]

hey guys before i forget i was watching Steve Lyons on the tropical update....

And he went on to say that typically you have Easterly Trade Winds that blow across the entire basin,especially this time of year.but instead there is an elongated low-pressure-type flow that extends form the west coast of africa out midway to the antilles, were some westerlies are also accuring.he said this would give waves moving through there a better chance of development then they otherwise would have.and we have two of them out there with in this area,both with possible low centers.so in the coming days lets see if they develope deep convection.chrisy

That was what I was talking about in SST's and Anomolies thread #4, I dont know if he sound diffrent when u watched it but he did when i watched it at 8:50pm

[The Hurricaner]

I watched him about 30-45min ago and he said that the waves arent expected to develop. Ill keep an eye on them just in case. And i think we'll have to see this one in the morning as its not impressive now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

They said the same thing about Alberto when he was still an Invest.

[Audrey2Katrina]

They said the same thing about Alberto when he was still an Invest.

All storms--or potential storms, are not the same in development, or course. We shall see.

A2K

[The Hurricaner]

Yeah, and the conditions werent EXACTLY the same. Alberto was a rare thing. But yes i know anything could happen.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now in my opinion the conditions are way better for this system than they were for Alberto.

Less dry air
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Less shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Warmer SSTs
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

[The Hurricaner]

What affecting it right now? or is it just loosing some of its signature for no reason.