Animated surge map for Houston/Galveston area for cat 4

[WhiteShirt]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9438673/

[Rainband]

Wow

[Brent]

[Swimdude]

As scary as that is, i'm not all that surprised.

[mvtrucking]

That is amazing. Great find WhiteShirt!

[WhiteShirt]

That is amazing. Great find WhiteShirt!

You're welcome!

[Stratosphere747]

The article is a bit mis-leading. It reads as if Galveston received a 24ft SS and gusts of 175mph. The gust of 175 was in the Matagorda area, while the highest SS is generally accepted as 18ft at Port Alto with a possible 20ft SS in the same area.

The map though is fairly close with respect to how far the water went inland. Not to start yet another debate, Carla is arguably one of the largest storms, ever, in the Gulf. If she had came in about 30/45 miles to the north near Freeport/San Luis Pass, the worst case scenario we all fear would have occurred.

[wxman57]

The article is a bit mis-leading. It reads as if Galveston received a 24ft SS and gusts of 175mph. The gust of 175 was in the Matagorda area, while the highest SS is generally accepted as 18ft at Port Alto with a possible 20ft SS in the same area.

The map though is fairly close with respect to how far the water went inland. Not to start yet another debate, Carla is arguably one of the largest storms, ever, in the Gulf. If she had came in about 30/45 miles to the north near Freeport/San Luis Pass, the worst case scenario we all fear would have occurred.

That's right, Carla hit about 110-120 miles down the coast of Galveston. Here's a shot of Carla's wind field just before landfall. Note how far down the coast it moved ashore. But hurricane-force winds extended over 100 nautical miles right of the track, all the way to Galveston. But Galveston, in no way, took the brunt of Carla.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carla2.gif

[Audrey2Katrina]

No question that Carla was big and had high gusts; but I ask this question in all sincerity. The NWS report on Carla showed maximum sustained winds in the range from 110-115 (some say 120) mph. If this is so, I would ask how it is categorized as a Cat 4 hurricane. Was that decided later using other data?

A2K

[Ixolib]

Scary indeed. I wonder how many of our members actually live in some of those areas that may become inundated? I hope they see it and tell all their friends and family who may otherwise be unaware of the "real deal" that surge can bring upon them...

[Audrey2Katrina]

I wonder if that's based on a SLOSH model, or what. It shows flooding a lot further into Houston than I might have thought likely; but I haven't seen their maps on that so I can't be certain.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

HURDAT, which I know for the time is close to worthless, has Carla making landfall with 120KT winds

[Audrey2Katrina]

HURDAT, which I know for the time is close to worthless, has Carla making landfall with 120KT winds

Okay, thanks, but is that based on "estimations" or do you know if they have any recorded data that the NOAA report has missed since its report? I'm actually just curious to know how they arrived at the categorization given size, intensity/pressure and probable gradient, and actual recorded data. Is this one that has already been re-analyzed, or is it yet to be revisited? I would like to know a lot more on these "past" storms that have been reanalyzed by today's meteorologists.

Apologies, not trying to thread-jack here... see above post, as this does bear significance on storms of Cat 3 or 4 and surge impact on the N Texas coastline.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

has not been done

as for how they derived intensities, well... lets just say that the quality back then is that of the not so Great One. 850mb winds were equal to surface winds and other suspicious findings

[HouTXmetro]

Those maps leave out the massive flooding that would occur along the many Bayou's in Houston. The flood waters would have no where to drain leaving Houston in a situation similar to Allison in addition to surge flooding.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The areas from Galveston to Texas City are almost entirely inundated. (In fact there's almost none of Galveston left above water at all) IF this is truly a probable scenario, it would be quite catastrophic.

A2K

[vbhoutex]

Those maps leave out the massive flooding that would occur along the many Bayou's in Houston. The flood waters would have no where to drain leaving Houston in a situation similar to Allison in addition to surge flooding.

EXACTLY!!! And yes they are very accurate. I have seen other articles about the surge, including interactive maps and they are all very similar to that. In a CAT5 situation with the right angle(basically NW track)and landfall point, towards the West end of Galveston Island, there are areas where the water would come inland up to around 15 miles. I think estimates of the surge heighth in the upper regions of Galveston Bay/Houston Ship Channel area are in the range of 24-28 feet. I believe approximately 1M live in the CAT5 surge zones in the Houston Metro area. Anyone with definite info feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The potential implications there are mind-boggling since that is such a sprawling metro area.

A2K

[vaffie]

Some people say that the odds of a Category 5 hurricane hitting Houston are low--people like that are in denial. Last year we were so close that just 18 hours beforehand, the whole city was so convinced it was going to happen that we were running for our lives. The fact of the matter is that Houston wouldn't be here if it were not for a hurricane destroying Galveston so badly a hundred years ago that people decided to move further inland.

[Normandy]

Hold on? Is that the surge map for where Carla hit or if Carla hit Galveston bay? Im definitely assuming that its for Galveston Bay, because I find it impossible to believe Carla sent that much water inland when hitting that far down the coast.

Secondly, as far as a Cat5 hitting houston i will admit it is unlikely, it would take a special storm to do so....but unlike some mets on the board I do accept it as a possibility. A cat4 is much more likely however.