GFS Model Output and Discussion

HurricaneHunter914 · #41 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 12:28 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:

If this low does develop which I doubt, it will probably subtropical. SSTs are to cool right now for any tropical development in the Atlantic.

The Hurricaner · #42 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 12:30 pm

Thinking about it, it is unusual all this stuff happend so early. It might be a sign of things to come...

#43 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 1:57 pm

GFS 12Z 6-14-06

'CaneFreak · #44 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 2:47 pm

Where do these graphics come from? I have seen them before, but I can't remember where?!

#45 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:03 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

:uarrow:

There ya go

Javlin · #46 Postby **Javlin** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:15 pm

I thought with a symetric warm core was tropical is it not?

#47 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:24 pm

is this future low from the wave that is just about to exit the African coast?

#48 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:is this future low from the wave that is just about to exit the African coast?

It's is featured in red on the cyclone phase site which means it is a future low predicted by GFS. I would think that it is either the one just just left the coast or is going to.

#49 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:27 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
boca_chris wrote:is this future low from the wave that is just about to exit the African coast?

It's is featured in red on the cyclone phase site which means it is a future low predicted by GFS. I would think that it is either the one just just left the coast or is going to.

thanx

#50 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:04 pm

I am changing the name of this thread to "GFS Model Output and Discussion"

or something to that nature.

#51 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:09 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I am changing the name of this thread to "GFS Model Output and Discussion"

or something to that nature.

It was a good change as now the thread can amplifie the discussion about the GFS model in general not only the African scenario you posted in the first instance.

#52 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 8:55 pm

18Z GFS not picking up on that system as much now.

#53 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:24 pm

If anyone see's anything on the 00Z GFS post it here.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

#54 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 6:47 am

GFZ 00Z picking up on something again. It didn't pick up on much last run.

Additionally the CMC is picking up on something out there.
CMC 00Z run 6-15-06

#55 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 7:01 am

That Canadian model with "A" plot at 60W 20N sounds like what's mentioned by our local NWS forecast office's discussion this morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST THU JUN 15 2006

.DISCUSSION....... ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... AS THE WAVE BECOMES STRETCHED NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

#56 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:10 am

06Z GFS 6-15-06

#57 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:25 am

Hmmm, that A posit is Saturday night. Let's see if this persists on the next GFS or shows up on any of the others, then I'll start worrying.

#58 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 2:06 pm

2006061512 models show NO low, present (black) or future(red), in the entire tropical Atlantic!

Canadian http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... index.html
GFS http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html
NGP http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/index.html
UKMET http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html

CHRISTY · #59 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 2:16 pm

Tropics will be quiet for the next few days i pointed that out earlier this morning....shear really ripped apart those 2 waves that we had have way from africa to the islands and another already in the caribbean.so its basically now a wait and see situation with the tropics.guys remember its june not august.

#60 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 15, 2006 2:25 pm

bvigal wrote:2006061512 models show NO low, present (black) or future(red), in the entire tropical Atlantic!

Canadian http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... index.html
GFS http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html
NGP http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/index.html
UKMET http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html

nope your right

GFS Model Output and Discussion

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