Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[gatorcane]

Here is the IR loop showing how it is remaining in tact nicely. I expect the convection to blossm more once it gets near Jamaica or a little west of it. Now lets see what happens

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[rockyman]

Boca_chris...as with all tropical systems, persistence is king...and this one has persisted for many miles...Can anyone post an image of the Canadian for Monday? I can't seem to see the system on the FSU model site and the Canadian site only allows animations out past 48 hours (and I'm on hideous dial-up)...Thanks!

[gatorcane]

Boca_chris...as with all tropical systems, persistence is king...and this one has persisted for many miles...Can anyone post an image of the Canadian for Monday? I can't seem to see the system on the FSU model site and the Canadian site only allows animations out past 48 hours (and I'm on hideous dial-up)...Thanks!

Yes, it has persisted for over 3000 miles + from where it originated from off Africa and now we see it blossoming in the Caribbean??? Makes me wonder...just like waves did last year...we can attribute this persistence to above normal SSTs where this wave has tracked yet again...

Look at this massive High spanning the entire northern Atlantic that would block fish storms from turning. I can see why the Canadian will show it moving into NOLA as you can connect the dots to see it would take it right there.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

Note the GFS doesn't develop it but lets see in a day or two if it picks up on something...

[rockyman]

I looked at the Canadian at 120 hours and I don't see anything resembling a tropical system hitting New Orleans...what am I doing wrong?

[gatorcane]

I looked at the Canadian at 120 hours and I don't see anything resembling a tropical system hitting New Orleans...what am I doing wrong?

Click on that link that was given above for the Canadian model and then click the go or animate button (I forget which one) to show the animation. It shows a NOLA hit of something rather signficant.

[skysummit]

I looked at the Canadian at 120 hours and I don't see anything resembling a tropical system hitting New Orleans...what am I doing wrong?

You're not doing anything wrong. I just looked at it myself. After Alberto finishes moving out, the CMC fills in the Atlantic ridge nice and strong steering everything into the gulf. Maybe that's what he meant.

[gatorcane]

Nope try this link

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model ... 12_....jpg

[gatorcane]

Nope try this link

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model ... 12_....jpg

Interesting it does look like a High.....maybe I saw something else when I tried it before.

[skysummit]

Nope try this link

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model ... 12_....jpg

Ok, I see it on the bottom right chart. The FSU page isn't showing anything when looking at SLP.

[rockyman]

I think the FSU site only goes out to 72 hours for the Canadian

[gatorcane]

so why is the Canadian model so bullish on this wave?

[vaffie]

so why is the Canadian model so bullish on this wave?

It's not bullish until it passes the Yucatan. Supposedly, the Gulf of Mexico will be very favorable come late Saturday and Sunday.

[gatorcane]

so why is the Canadian model so bullish on this wave?

It's not bullish until it passes the Yucatan. Supposedly, the Gulf of Mexico will be very favorable come late Saturday and Sunday.

That would not be good and NOLA cannot afford a hit especially so early this season - it would be bad. I'm sure many of us are counting on the model being wrong given it is forecasting something 120+ hours out where the accuracy is not that great - but it did forecast Alberto accurately way in advance. Lets hope that is the problem here with the Canadian model

[canegrl04]

"Supposedly,the Gulf of Mexico will be very favorable come late Saturday and Sunday"


Thats reflective in our local forecast in North Texas. Temps are suppose to cool into the upper 80s,and chances for rain into the coming week

[vaffie]

For those who don't know what I'm talking about, here are the images:

[Recurve]

From back a few pages...

Yes, Stratosphere747, Texas is a possibility...So is Florida, so is Maine, so is Honduras...anyone who tells you that something is "likely" is just blowing smoke...no meteorologist or even serious amateur will tell you any particular path is likely at this point. There are simply too many variables...speed of development, strength of system, strength and path of dozens of other weather systems across the globe, etc etc etc.

Amen, brother. Probably could be pasted in inumerable threads this season.

Also, Rockyman -- can you give a link for pressure-level wind charts, like you posted. Had it and lost it.

As a (semi)serious amateur, learned a lot from everyone here on steering currents, low vs. high winds vs. system organization, interpreting shear, seeing dominant patterns. I don't try to forecast, just understand conditions, and then what conditions would have to be for future development and track. Thanks to members, you know who you are, who consistenty post great informative discussions, like many in this thread.

Just a reminder to fellow amateurs: If you are following a wave thread and get drool on the keyboard, it's time to degauss.

<pardon the thread hijack>
back to the wave system...
Latest IR shows contracting/diminishing central convention. Clouds (low?) south of Jamaica being tugged northeast, clouds closer and SW of Jamaica moving westerly with winds steering the wave. Outflow doesn't seem strongly sheared.

[The Hurricaner]

I sure hope it comes to miami. We need the rain. Any chances of it?

[rockyman]

Hey, Recurve! I think this is the chart you're wanting...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


Or maybe this one:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[MississippiHurricane]

I just checked the forecast for our area and we have a 40% chance of rain Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 80s: after we have been in the mid to upper 90s and no rain since early may. I'm guessing this is because of this wave? I don't see anything else that could bring rain our way. We need the rain, but not at the expense of the coast. We can do without in that case.

[rockyman]

The most recent QuikScat shows nothing here:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas20.png

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds20.png