The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Key:
Black - Average Mean Track (area of greatest risk)
Yellow - Early season mean track for GOM formation.
Purple - Early season mean track for Western Caribbean formation.
Red - Mean track for peak of season 'Cape Verde' storm formation.
Steering Facts I believe that a Negative NAO and a weak to neutral La Nina will lead to a Summer Time/ Early Fall Mean Trough over Eastern NOAM/The Western Atlantic. Most storms will thus be caught up in the SW flow North of 30 Degrees, and as such will be subject to a NE mean movement as opposed to the mean Westward mean movement that occurred last season.
Early Season (June - early August): Greatest threat for landfall will be in the Eastern GOM and especially Florida.
Peak Season (late August - early October): Greatest threat for landfall will shift to the Eastern Seaboard. The area between South Carolina and Cape Cod will be under the gun. Greatest threat all however will be concentrated between Myrtle Beach, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC.
Major hurricane landfalls and over all threat: Greatest threat this year according to the mean track stretches just off shore from the East Coast of Florida to Cape Cod Mass. The highest risk of all, the bull's eye if you would, is centered firmly on the Carolinas this year.
