Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

HOLY COW! If this wave can somehow make its way into the central Atlantic it would be like automatic development.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. THE RAIN SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY COVERS 15N-19N BETWEEN
69W-74W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW BUOY AND SHIP
OBS HAVE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS.


2 PM Discussion of Caribbean Wave.

[TS Zack]

Very large Upper Ridge across the N-West Caribbean extending to the Northeast of the Bahamas.

We will see what happens...

[HouTXmetro]

Convection is flaring this PM as opposed to yesterday. How is the shear ahead of the wave?

[Extremeweatherguy]

according to the 5:30pm EDT TWO, the conditions are still unfavorable for development. It looks like they may get a little more favorable down the road, however, and as the moisture works into the W. Caribbean and Gulf we will need to watch and see if anything spins up.

[Dean4Storms]

This wave is interesting in that it is persistant with convective bursts. Something to begin to watch come tomorrow as it moves westward into somewhat more favorable UL conditions and eventually warmer SST's.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just read JBs latest post and he thinks the wave train (which is being "sheared to pieces") will be deflected up into the Gulf around the 20th. At this point, he says to watch for the "fun and games" to begin again. He also says that he thinks this next potential system may be further west, and stronger than the 995mb Alberto.

Basically what I am taking from this is: Starting early next week, watch for an increase in activity in the Gulf, which could then potentially work up into a tropical system. If this system does indeed form, expect it to be further west and stronger than Alberto; potentially the first hurricane of 2006.

I guess we will see what happens next week...

[wx247]

This wave is interesting in that it is persistant with convective bursts. Something to begin to watch come tomorrow as it moves westward into somewhat more favorable UL conditions and eventually warmer SST's.

I always seek out your posts. You seem to be right on target. This wave is different than most we have seen this season with the more consistant convection. It still may be a bit too early though. We shall see.

[rockyman]

Luis...I think we need to change the title of the thread to Central Caribbean (or maybe just Caribbean if you count the little action NE of Costa Rica)

[cycloneye]

Luis...I think we need to change the title of the thread to Central Caribbean (or maybe just Caribbean if you count the little action NE of Costa Rica)

Oh yes,I changed only a letter. CapeVerdeWave,I edited the title to change a letter,put C instead of the E.

[The Hurricaner]

Heres a good looking loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[jusforsean]

Where do you see the jb posts? Are these with accuweather? Do you have to pay to see them?
Thanks

[CHRISTY]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where do you see the jb posts? Are these with accuweather? Do you have to pay to see them?
Thanks

The one I am referring to comes from his pro site (which you have to pay for), but every now and then they will release a few of his posts and predictions to the public on accuweather.com.

[vaffie]

Just so you guys know, the Canadian model has this tropical wave developing somewhat and hitting approximately the New Orleans area on Monday.

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model ... 12_....jpg

The GFS is hinting at something, albeit small headed towards the western Louisiana area/SE Texas area around Monday too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Just so you guys know, the Canadian model has this tropical wave developing somewhat and hitting approximately the New Orleans area on Monday.

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model ... 12_....jpg

You are right - very scary. I hope this doesn't verify. I think you will get the board going pretty good once they look at this model....that predicted Alberto very accurately

It really wouldn't surprise me - SSTs are very warm in the Caribbean for this time of year. It's more like August as far as SSTs are concerned...

[gatorcane]

Wind shear gets progressively better the farther west this wave moves and the thunderstorm activity continues to blossom tonight...here is the wind shear showing the Caribbean shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[rockyman]

For the first time, I see low level clouds in front of the system moving from south to north, instead of east to west...this could mean that inflow is trying to get established.

[gatorcane]

For the first time, I see low level clouds in front of the system moving from south to north, instead of east to west...this could mean that inflow is trying to get established.

Wow great observation now lets see if the thunderstorm activity can get going better. I think it is one to watch now....

Hmmmm...this one is going to get interesting as it will be moving into an area the is more climatologically favorable yet it as remained in tack from all the way off the African coast. This is not normal folks for waves to do this in June. Comments anybody?

[canegrl04]

Temps getting cooler here in Texas for the next week with chances of rain increasing so the NW Gulf will be condusive to tropical storms. I sure hope the Canadian model is wrong becasue NO can't take another hurricane.