Gonna Give the Canadian a bit more attention.

[Dean4Storms]

I am impressed with the Canadian models performance in being one of the first models to pick up on the development of Alberto and then some of the first runs had it moving right where it ended up. If it continues to perform like this the rest of the hurricane season it sure will be a positive development in helping us prepare.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah most people including NOAA ignored this model discounting against the rest. I was rather impressed that it picked it up also cause no other models except for the NAM model. I would imagine that during the early and late tropics months of June and November models are weaker on pin pointing development. Just my opinion on what I have noticed with models.

[boca]

Is the Canadian picking up on anything else so far.

[Cyclenall]

Yeah go Canadian model!! My country's model is doing good so far. It's bad for Tropical Cyclones but for Alberto it did great.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is the Canadian picking up on anything else so far.

Not as of yet.

[WindRunner]

Yeah go Canadian model!! My country's model is doing good so far. It's bad for Tropical Cyclones but for Alberto it did great.

Maybe that means Alberto wasn't tropical . . . hmmmmm . . .

[CHRISTY]

yes the canadian model did pretty good with alberto....

[N2DaTropics]

I am impressed with the Canadian models performance in being one of the first models to pick up on the development of Alberto and then some of the first runs had it moving right where it ended up. If it continues to perform like this the rest of the hurricane season it sure will be a positive development in helping us prepare.

Hey Dean, good to see you back for another season over there in Destin...do you watch Panama City Channel 13 Weather? Their Titan forecast model actually did really well with Alberto...it was a little farther West than where it actually came in, but never did really bite on the Florida West Coast scenario...I actually prefer Channel 7 with Jason Kelly because he is friends with Stacy Stewart so his Tropical Analysis is usually heavily influenced by his discussions with Stewart...take care over there in beautiful Destin, Florida...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My friends John Button and Chris Fogarty of the Canadian Hurricane Centre put a lot of work into revamping this model after it handled many storms in the 1990s (like Luis and Hortense) very poorly, when they approached the East Coast. Besides Alberto they also nailed Juan 2003 and to a lesser extent the hybridstorm of 2001. Nice to see that their efforts appear to be paying off.

[Dean4Storms]

Hey N2DaTropics, I've watched some in the past and like you always liked Jason Kelley, but I got Direct TV awhile back and the local stuff doesn't come in good over here in Destin, so I mostly get my local stuff from Tally and Mobile NWS web sites, especially when going offshore fishing. I'm a Storm Spotter for the Tally office and they will usually email me back when I send them any questions.

The Canadian also was one of the first models to show Katrina deepening and heading for the upper Gulf Coast last year if memory serves when she was nothing but a squall in the Bahamas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Remember how many times the Canadian flip-flopped though. At different stages in the game it had a landfall anywhere from TX to FL. Also, it initialized from different spots many times. Based on this, I would say that it only did 'OK' with Alberto.

[Rainband]

My friends John Button and Chris Fogarty of the Canadian Hurricane Centre put a lot of work into revamping this model after it handled many storms in the 1990s (like Luis and Hortense) very poorly, when they approached the East Coast. Besides Alberto they also nailed Juan 2003 and to a lesser extent the hybridstorm of 2001. Nice to see that their efforts appear to be paying off.

Yes they are

[wxman57]

As was suggested among TC researchers, the Canadian model tends to develop just about everything, with many false alarms. So it would tend to appear to do well with storms like Alberto. Kind of like one well-known forecater who predicts just about every storm in the Atlantic to hit the NE US and State College, PA. Eventually, he'll be right.

[Kennethb]

I think the canadian was better because this was not a bonafide tropical system, rather of an area of low pressure that formed on an old front. Just happens this is June and not January, and low pressures in the GOM are able to become tropical systems.

[Scott_inVA]

I think the canadian was better because this was not a bonafide tropical system, rather of an area of low pressure that formed on an old front. Just happens this is June and not January, and low pressures in the GOM are able to become tropical systems.

I am inclined to agree.

CMC did excellent service inside 48 hours. Beyond that it was its' old self

My UNofficial analysis on the CMC w/Alberto

12HR 76 mi
24HR 78 mi
36HR 98 mi
48HR 116mi
72HR 224mi
96HR 441mi

IMO, 116 @ 48HR for the CMC is decent.

As an aside, I run "consensus models" on my site and continue to like GUNS which comes from the Naval Research Lab. It is a consensus of the NOGAPS, GFDL and UKMET. GUNA is another "merged model" using the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS and GFS...it actually outperformed GUNS with Alberto. CONU is another consensus I track; it combines a minimum of 2 of the 5 primary models used. It too did decently with this TC.

Here's GUNS' summary map:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/GUNS_Alberto.jpg

The consensus runs are a way to do a "group hug" if hugging models is what you like to do.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[vaffie]

We're discussing the Canadian model in it's depiction of the wave in the Caribbean possibly developing a little and hitting eastern Louisiana actually. It's apparently the first global model to be picking up on it right now.