Lesson from weakening Alberto.......

[kenl01]

That's a good point Hyperstorm. There are certainly those that downplay and those that hype weather events. No question about it.


At the beginning of this topic, I was pointing out that early season storms should not be overhyped or panicked about. In September I would certainly agree to be more concerned about tropical systems than in June/July. Doesn't mean there cannot be a strong hurricane early in the season, just that chances usually are not too great early in the season, since the meteorological conditions typically do not favor major hurricanes yet. Now, if Alberto had formed three months from now with favorable conditions all around, I certainly would agree that everyone should keep posted and monitor it carefully, if you're in the path. Still there's no need to panic, just be aware what it's doing and prepare just incase. Avoid the media hype - just stick with the NHC discussions. They are usually the best in careful analysis of tropical cyclones, although in certain circumstances, even the models (including the GFDL) have been known to overestimate the intensity of several hurricanes at landfall. If it were me, I'd use self-judgment before accepting any forecast cast in stone.

I mean, why live a life full of paranoia, just because a weather radio and a TV set sits beside you ?

Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got

I see you are now using JB's sign off phrase..

As for the over-hyping, I do not agree. I think that every storm needs to see the same level of concern, because you never know what will happen. Charley in 2004 was suppose to make landfall as "only" a category 2...less than three hours later it was just 6mph shy of being a Category 5. Audrey in 1957 was likely not forecasted to come ashore as a category 4...but she did. And Allison in 2001 was probably not suppose to dump nearly 40" of rain on Houston, and no one could have forecasted that, but she did. There is just no way to know what to expect, and storms love to throw curve balls. Each storm should be looked at the same until it makes landfall. All it would take is three hours to go from a TS to a Category 3.

BTW: Anyone who has really experienced what 'true' moderate or strong TS force winds feel like (55-73mph sustained) can tell you that it is no joy ride. Luckily, no winds like this were felt from Alberto, but if they would have been, then wind damage would have been much worse.

For example...here is what a strong TS force wind did in Miami after Katrina:

http://k41.pbase.com/v3/85/493885/1/484 ... a_0390.jpg

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/4 ... arland.jpg

**7 were also killed in Miami from winds UNDER Hurricane force**

For a cat 1 hitting South Florida at the time, it was pretty strong. However, I've been through Hugo - a strong cat 4 in 1989, and we did just fine. I was ready for the next one right after that, believe it or not. All we had to do is make sure we had our cooker, flashlights, some groceries and everything else secured. Hugo was not overhyped but we simply used common sense. Allot of the other ones (besides Katrina) were overhyped, however. I wouldn't listen whenever somebody on some news channel screams that death and destruction will hit you tomorrow ! Its useless to worry about all that. Being so paranoid about every single crises news means you'll die much sooner before anything ever happens, IMO.


Ken

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ken - where did you live when Hugo hit?

[sunny]

[ However, I've been through Hugo - a strong cat 4 in 1989, and we did just fine. I was ready for the next one right after that, believe it or not.

Sorry, I don't believe it - unless you were in Alaska.

[skysummit]

[ However, I've been through Hugo - a strong cat 4 in 1989, and we did just fine. I was ready for the next one right after that, believe it or not.

Sorry, I don't believe it - unless you were in Alaska.

Exactly...maybe he's been through Hugo, but people who only got 50mph winds also say they've been through Hugo.

[vbhoutex]

No more trolling comments!!!! He is expressing his opinion, whether we agree with it or not.

Keep comments like that off the board!! If you feel someone is trolling then contact the staff and let us deal with it. Comments about someone trolling needlessly clutter the board and add nothing to the discussion.

[kenl01]

Ken - where did you live when Hugo hit?

In Mt Pleasant,SC - two miles from the beach. There was some storm surge, about 1 1/2' in my area. Many trees down but overall the neighborhood faired pretty well for a cat 4.

[KWT]

Then obviously Ken your area probably didn't get cat-4 damage. Heck I live in the Uk and had a powerful extra-tropical depression give that sort of damamge with 80mph wind gusts. I highly doubt you had even cat-2 winds yet alone cat-4.

[kenl01]

Then obviously Ken your area probably didn't get cat-4 damage. Heck I live in the Uk and had a powerful extra-tropical depression give that sort of damamge with 80mph wind gusts. I highly doubt you had even cat-2 winds yet alone cat-4.

Well wrong again. The eye passed right over Chas county at 934mb, Sept.21. We were right in the eye at midnight ! Pine trees all around were snapped in half about 8' above the ground, especially just north of here. Areas north of me had gusts to 160 mph as I remember. A storm tide of 12.9' crashed over the seawall near the battery.

[tallywx]

Then obviously Ken your area probably didn't get cat-4 damage. Heck I live in the Uk and had a powerful extra-tropical depression give that sort of damamge with 80mph wind gusts. I highly doubt you had even cat-2 winds yet alone cat-4.

Actually according to the aerial surveys conducted by Fujita, Mt. Pleasant got ~cat 3 conditions duirng the storm. After all, the exact center of Hugo's eye moved over Mt. Pleasant.

Mt. Pleasant is probably one of the more affluent neighborhoods in Charleston. Homes there are built VERY well. After Hugo, all throughout Mt. Pleasant one would see a neighborhood in which all trees were more or less decimated but homes with only sporadic minor roof damage.

Of course, the true cat 4 conditions were about 20 miles to the NE in Francis Marion Forest.

[KWT]

Well forgive me then Ken, but I'm a Brit and I can't say I have much knowleadge on a more local area therefore I can really only compare it to waht damage we got from the 87 storm here!

[quandary]

Well, without arguing with whether or not Ken actually received Cat 3 winds...

We all know the least that Cat 3 or Cat 4 winds can do to an area and that is basically what Charley did to Florida (15 billion dollars in damage, significant inland damage in Orlando from Cat 1-2 winds and power outages for days). Likewise, it is what Katrina did to Mississippi (long duration of Cat 1-3 winds probably have the same effect as a smaller Cat 4). Complete annihilation of the coast and even somewhat inland. And things could easily be as bad as Wilma in the US (Cat 1 - 2 winds causing 15-16 billion dollars in damage). So.. whatever it is... we all know that we have to be very careful about hurricane force winds, especially above Cat 1 level.

Of course, even 50-60 mph winds can have a devastating impact given the right conditions. Hurricane Isabel toppled what I could only guess was millions of trees in Virginia causing power outages in the DC area that last up to a week. No hurricane force winds here for sure. Isabel came onshore 400 miles away in NC as a moderate Cat 1-2.

So everybody's gotta watch out no matter what. Even as we were driving through TS Bonnie there was danger in the form of a tornado. TS Bonnie was hardly a storm at landfall and we were in Jacksonville far from its landfall point on the Panhandle.

I don't think there was any hype about Alberto. Everybody said this would likely be a weak to moderate TS and that was what it was. The media picked up on the fact that it might be a hurricane and it certainly could've been. I think the NHC kept that chance alive far longer than it might've, but really 5 or 10 miles is not a huge issue. The media did talk about it a lot more than they talked about other storms, but that's only reasonable considering how much hurricanes have impacted the country in the past 2 years.

[caribepr]

Two things I'm feeling out of reading this thread...it would be really great if people joining put where they are from (not necessarily their lat/long like some of us don't mind doing ) but at least a STATE.
The other thing is: I personally was pretty darned suprised and pleased about how almost all of the board is dealing with Alberto, from the beginning. I expected wild threads, wild opinions, and flingings of disaster ridden comments, as has happened before and frankly, I don't think it happened. In my opinion, almost all of the posts were interesting speculation, fact borne research and a LOT less of the *I agree* *OMG* etc. etc. stuff. I hope we can maintain that level of posting throughout the season. ANY system is going to get major interest, that's why we are here on this board, regardless of whether we are pro's, nutty about weather geeks, curious, or just wondering what the pro's and almost pro's think of a developing system in regard to our area, or an area we have concerns about.
Raising the glass to the board...may we stay sane this season, and all fare as best as we are able (yeah yeah, I'm talking preps again and swore I wouldn't but hey...sometimes I oopsy!)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, without arguing with whether or not Ken actually received Cat 3 winds...

We all know the least that Cat 3 or Cat 4 winds can do to an area and that is basically what Charley did to Florida (15 billion dollars in damage, significant inland damage in Orlando from Cat 1-2 winds and power outages for days). Likewise, it is what Katrina did to Mississippi (long duration of Cat 1-3 winds probably have the same effect as a smaller Cat 4). Complete annihilation of the coast and even somewhat inland. And things could easily be as bad as Wilma in the US (Cat 1 - 2 winds causing 15-16 billion dollars in damage). So.. whatever it is... we all know that we have to be very careful about hurricane force winds, especially above Cat 1 level.

Of course, even 50-60 mph winds can have a devastating impact given the right conditions. Hurricane Isabel toppled what I could only guess was millions of trees in Virginia causing power outages in the DC area that last up to a week. No hurricane force winds here for sure. Isabel came onshore 400 miles away in NC as a moderate Cat 1-2.

So everybody's gotta watch out no matter what. Even as we were driving through TS Bonnie there was danger in the form of a tornado. TS Bonnie was hardly a storm at landfall and we were in Jacksonville far from its landfall point on the Panhandle.

I don't think there was any hype about Alberto. Everybody said this would likely be a weak to moderate TS and that was what it was. The media picked up on the fact that it might be a hurricane and it certainly could've been. I think the NHC kept that chance alive far longer than it might've, but really 5 or 10 miles is not a huge issue. The media did talk about it a lot more than they talked about other storms, but that's only reasonable considering how much hurricanes have impacted the country in the past 2 years.

I agree with many of your points, except the fact that a long duration Cat. 1-3 wind is just as bad as a Cat. 4 wind. This is not the case. For example, a 105mph Cat. 2 wind lasting 12 hours will never reach the level of a 150mph Cat. 4 wind lasting just 1 hour. Sure, the damage will be very widespread in both events, and very similar, but there are some structures that need a certain wind force to be destroyed or damaged. For example, a home that is built to withstand 130mph winds would never be destroyed in the 12 hours of Cat. 2 force winds (unless a tree fell on it or it was flooded), but would easily be destroyed in the 1 hour of Cat. 4 force winds. In both events, the tree damage, sign damage, and all other minor damages would be identical, but it is the structural damage that really counts. A Cat. 2 or 3 will never do more structural damage (without the help of trees or water) than a Cat. 4.

Other than that one very minor thing...great post.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, I was looking for more info. on Hurricane Hugo wind speeds, pictures, etc. online and I came across this site. Tell me if you notice something odd:

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl= ... D%26sa%3DN

If you didn't notice it, here it is:

About 1:20 am my son called me from California and told me to go downstairs because Hugo was heading straight for Charlotte. I brushed it off because hurricanes never come this far inland. About thirty minutes later it got very dark and I heard the wind howling. I looked outside and the trees were swaying dangerously. When the rain started it was coming sideways. Suddenly there was a sound like an explosion and the whole sky lit up. All the lights went out. My daughter was sleeping soundly so I shook her awake. We grabbed our cat and dog, ran downstairs and spent the rest of the night in total darkness, huddled in the basement, listening to trees crashing; power lines crackling; winds howling, and hail beating on the windows.

Hail beating the windows? I thought this was funny because this would be a completely non-tropical event if it really happened. Just goes to show how uneducated some people are when it comes to hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

Well, without arguing with whether or not Ken actually received Cat 3 winds...

We all know the least that Cat 3 or Cat 4 winds can do to an area and that is basically what Charley did to Florida (15 billion dollars in damage, significant inland damage in Orlando from Cat 1-2 winds and power outages for days). Likewise, it is what Katrina did to Mississippi (long duration of Cat 1-3 winds probably have the same effect as a smaller Cat 4). Complete annihilation of the coast and even somewhat inland. And things could easily be as bad as Wilma in the US (Cat 1 - 2 winds causing 15-16 billion dollars in damage). So.. whatever it is... we all know that we have to be very careful about hurricane force winds, especially above Cat 1 level.

Of course, even 50-60 mph winds can have a devastating impact given the right conditions. Hurricane Isabel toppled what I could only guess was millions of trees in Virginia causing power outages in the DC area that last up to a week. No hurricane force winds here for sure. Isabel came onshore 400 miles away in NC as a moderate Cat 1-2.

So everybody's gotta watch out no matter what. Even as we were driving through TS Bonnie there was danger in the form of a tornado. TS Bonnie was hardly a storm at landfall and we were in Jacksonville far from its landfall point on the Panhandle.

I don't think there was any hype about Alberto. Everybody said this would likely be a weak to moderate TS and that was what it was. The media picked up on the fact that it might be a hurricane and it certainly could've been. I think the NHC kept that chance alive far longer than it might've, but really 5 or 10 miles is not a huge issue. The media did talk about it a lot more than they talked about other storms, but that's only reasonable considering how much hurricanes have impacted the country in the past 2 years.

I agree with many of your points, except the fact that a long during Cat. 1-3 wind is just as bad as a Cat. 4 wind. This is not the case. For example, a 105mph Cat. 2 wind lasting 12 hours will never reach the level of a 150mph Cat. 4 wind lasting just 1 hour. Sure, the damage will be very widespread in both events, and very similar, but there are some structures that need a certain wind force to be destroyed or damaged. For example, a home that is built to withstand 130mph winds would never be destroyed in the 12 hours of Cat. 2 force winds (unless a tree fell on it or it was flooded), but would easily be destroyed in the 1 hour of Cat. 4 force winds. In both events, the tree damage, sign damage, and all other minor damages would be identical, but it is the structural damage that really counts. A Cat. 2 or 3 will never do more structural damage (without the help of trees or water) than a Cat. 4.

Other than that one very minor thing...great post.

Very true - look at the destruction from high-end tornadoes...and they sustain those winds for 1-3 minutes at the most...

[baygirl_1]

Well, to add the perspective of some tourists who just returned from vacation at Walt Disney World: We listened to the local news while down there and they were very helpful in making our plans for visiting the parks and such. The local TV meteorologists there said that the storm would be a big rainmaker, but not a lot of wind--- mostly providing beneficial rain for the area. They cautioned us to be on guard for a few severe storms and possible tornadoes overnight Mon. into Tues. as the storm passed closest to our area. They had reporters in the Cedar Key area and they reported that there were no serious problems there. We thought the local news outlets in the Orlando area handled the storm pretty well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, to add the perspective of some tourists who just returned from vacation at Walt Disney World: We listened to the local news while down there and they were very helpful in making our plans for visiting the parks and such. The local TV meteorologists there said that the storm would be a big rainmaker, but not a lot of wind--- mostly providing beneficial rain for the area. They cautioned us to be on guard for a few severe storms and possible tornadoes overnight Mon. into Tues. as the storm passed closest to our area. They had reporters in the Cedar Key area and they reported that there were no serious problems there. We thought the local news outlets in the Orlando area handled the storm pretty well.

yes, the orlando stations are very good. After encounters with Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Wilma over the last 2 years; they can really deliver valuable information. Tom Terry (Chan. 9) and Tom Sorrels (Chan. 6) are some of the best weatherman I have seen.

[cmdebbie]

Tom Terry (Chan. 9) and Tom Sorrels (Chan. 6) are some of the best weatherman I have seen.

Yes they are!

Baygirl: I hope you enjoyed you stay in the "sunshine state."

[brunota2003]

Guys, this system was NOTHING to worry about. Just a big rain maker for the most part.

Lesson learned hopefully is not to overhype these tropical systems........

Tell that to the people of Yemassee, SC who are digging through the rubble of their homes this morning.

Also, tell that to the people in Central/Eastern NC whose homes are being flooded out right now...tell that to the people on the Outer Banks whose homes got flooded also, tell that to the people in Morehead City where the tornado touched down...dont know if it caused damage but there was a tornado touchdown in Morehead, and tell that to the people in Florida and Georgia whose homes were destroyed either by wind or water...I say overhype is better than underhype...we have seen what underhype does and that is kill people...what was it? During Katrina as it crossed Florida 13 or 14 people were killed due to trees falling because it was "only" a Cat 1 right?

[brunota2003]

If you didn't notice it, here it is:

About 1:20 am my son called me from California and told me to go downstairs because Hugo was heading straight for Charlotte. I brushed it off because hurricanes never come this far inland. About thirty minutes later it got very dark and I heard the wind howling. I looked outside and the trees were swaying dangerously. When the rain started it was coming sideways. Suddenly there was a sound like an explosion and the whole sky lit up. All the lights went out. My daughter was sleeping soundly so I shook her awake. We grabbed our cat and dog, ran downstairs and spent the rest of the night in total darkness, huddled in the basement, listening to trees crashing; power lines crackling; winds howling, and hail beating on the windows.

Hail beating the windows? I thought this was funny because this would be a completely non-tropical event if it really happened. Just goes to show how uneducated some people are when it comes to hurricanes.

Actually, though rare, hail does occur in hurricanes, especially in the outer bands where there are some very intense thunderstorms...just my $0.02