Lesson from weakening Alberto.......

[beachbum_al]

You know I was going to type a post to his response but I just decided he is obviously very narrow minded and must be a troll. Have better things to do with my time than feed the trolls.

[NCHurricane]

The only party guilty of overhyping systems is the media.

As far as irrelevant weather warnings are concerned, I would rather have a few too many than not enough and get killed because of the lack of.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

[skysummit]

You know I was going to type a post to his response but I just decided he is obviously very narrow minded and must be a troll. Have better things to do with my time than feed the trolls.

Samething here Bum....I have decided to stop replying to this useless threads. If anyone else is reading this, I advise them to do the same.

[kenl01]

I just wonder how many people would have hyped up the first named storm back in 1981, Arlene, which formed on May 7th..........

Some would be screaming that 40 named storms would develop just because of that. It turned out that all the hurricanes that year remained at sea.


Have a nice day....

[bevgo]

Guys, this system was NOTHING to worry about. Just a big rain maker for the most part.

Lesson learned hopefully is not to overhype these tropical systems........

You are not listening. People cannot take chances with these things. See, the LESSON LEARNED is to never underestimate. Obviously a lesson you need to learn....

Nope, wrong again. Lesson learned is not to OVERESTIMATE and OVERHYPE these systems. No wonder so many coastal residence are no longer listening to warnings.....

Last year during Katrina there was a troll in the chat room that kept saying there was no way NO would be under 20 ft of water----Uh this happened. Overhype is not always bad. We need the information to make an educated decision. It is up to us to decide what is hype and what is possible.

I can understand why. I have a weather radio and 80 % of all weather warnings are irrelevant.

[no advance]

If we did over hype everything then we would not find it as interesting. Just wait to S Fl. gets a real scare then you will see the press milkin it.

[kenl01]

Guys, this system was NOTHING to worry about. Just a big rain maker for the most part.

Lesson learned hopefully is not to overhype these tropical systems........

You are not listening. People cannot take chances with these things. See, the LESSON LEARNED is to never underestimate. Obviously a lesson you need to learn....

Nope, wrong again. Lesson learned is not to OVERESTIMATE and OVERHYPE these systems. No wonder so many coastal residence are no longer listening to warnings.....

Last year during Katrina there was a troll in the chat room that kept saying there was no way NO would be under 20 ft of water----Uh this happened. Overhype is not always bad. We need the information to make an educated decision. It is up to us to decide what is hype and what is possible.

I can understand why. I have a weather radio and 80 % of all weather warnings are irrelevant.

Katrina was re-analyzed as a weak cat 3 (115mph) at landfall. It was nothing like Hugo as far as winds were concerned. The last time we had a cat 4 was Charley in 2004.

Gotto go......

[Scorpion]

Seems like someone was just trying to get a rise out of people.

I agree. He was a big troll on eastern before getting banned there.

[Hyperstorm]

People, we need to learn to listen to other people's opinions without getting a rise out of it if it's something you disagree with.

I think it's very true what he says about people "predicting" this storm to become a strong system. The environment surrounding the system was very unfavorable. Alberto managed to get the most out of the warm SSTs and still was not able to meet some people's predictions about it. If you have a prediction or what some call "gut feeling" then you need to show the reasoning behind the thinking. Moderators have already talked about this. It's OK to say "I think Alberto has the potential to become a major hurricane." IF you show data from computer models, wind shear charts, water vapor images, etc. That's the problem that original poster is referring to: "Overhyping" WITHOUT a valid reasoning.

I've also noticed people referring to this season already as another 2005 without valid reasoning. Just because there is major activity along the ITCZ this early does not mean anything for later on in the season. Last year, we saw Emily develop in the Central Atlantic ocean in July and many were saying: "OMG, This is going to be a very active and destructive Cape Verde season!"...with the usual emoticons that go with it. What happened last year? We barely had Cape Verde activity. I think we all need to learn from the past (climatology) before we even try to predict the future. That's the root of the problem...trying to predict something and PANICKING without hard data.

*On another note, I disagree with the original poster when he talks about the warnings being irrelevant most of the time. If you are under a warning, regardless, YOU NEED to take it seriously!

[Scorpion]

I disagree Hyperstorm. Alberto was able to strengthen far more than what most people predicted. Everyone was talking about it spinning down in the GOM and the convection separating from the LLC. The next morning it had gotten up to 70 mph.

[skysummit]

I also respectfully disagree Hyper. It's one thing to give opinions and such on a topic, but the style that this poster was giving is one of a troll. He's also done it on other boards so I wouldn't give credit to anything this poster mentions.

[Hyperstorm]

I disagree Hyperstorm. Alberto was able to strengthen far more than what most people predicted. Everyone was talking about it spinning down in the GOM and the convection separating from the LLC. The next morning it had gotten up to 70 mph.

Scorpion...

There will always be the two bandwagons when it comes to everything in life. The ones who will always hype everything up and the ones who will downplay everything. We see both problems a lot here in this forum.

When we see a system weaken and convection dying off, we see people saying "What a lousy storm this is!" "This shouldn't have been named!" "This is going nowhere!" "It will just be rain!". Very interestingly on the other hand, when a system rapidly strengthens or we see a major increase in thunderstorm activity we see the same people predicting "doom and gloom". That's what happened when we saw the huge explosion of thunderstorms the other night with Alberto.

If you don't know what you are thinking/talking about I suggest doing two things: 1) Don't say anything. 2) Ask questions! The latter one is the preferrable one. We are all here to learn. Don't try to put yourself in a meteorologist's suit, if you don't know the reasoning behind your thinking. Remain calm and don't panic.

I think if we all follow this, this forum could be an even better place for everyone...

[curtadams]

The board was pretty on track for Alberto. There were bulls predicting a low-end hurricane into FL, bears predicting a fizzle, and neutralists predicting a TS into FL. The neutralists were right, but both other models were plausible. The only hype was the GFDL predicting a Cat 2 into FL, but that met with a resounding "yeah, right" - xyno even said he'd eat his hat if that verified!. And there was reasonable concern that Alberto's strong performance in a hostile environment was ominous for the upcoming season - very legitimate, IMO - nobody said "OMG, FL IS DOOMED" or anything silly like that.

[Rainband]

Guys, this system was NOTHING to worry about. Just a big rain maker for the most part.

Lesson learned hopefully is not to overhype these tropical systems........

You are not listening. People cannot take chances with these things. See, the LESSON LEARNED is to never underestimate. Obviously a lesson you need to learn....

Nope, wrong again. Lesson learned is not to OVERESTIMATE and OVERHYPE these systems. No wonder so many coastal residence are no longer listening to warnings.....

Last year during Katrina there was a troll in the chat room that kept saying there was no way NO would be under 20 ft of water----Uh this happened. Overhype is not always bad. We need the information to make an educated decision. It is up to us to decide what is hype and what is possible.

I can understand why. I have a weather radio and 80 % of all weather warnings are irrelevant.

Katrina was re-analyzed as a weak cat 3 (115mph) at landfall. It was nothing like Hugo as far as winds were concerned. The last time we had a cat 4 was Charley in 2004.

Gotto go......

You need to chill out and have respect for your fellow posters!! Consider this a warning. Respect is Key!!

[Regit]

Guys, this system was NOTHING to worry about. Just a big rain maker for the most part.

Lesson learned hopefully is not to overhype these tropical systems........

Tell that to the people of Yemassee, SC who are digging through the rubble of their homes this morning.

[kenl01]

That's a good point Hyperstorm. There are certainly those that downplay and those that hype weather events. No question about it.


At the beginning of this topic, I was pointing out that early season storms should not be overhyped or panicked about. In September I would certainly agree to be more concerned about tropical systems than in June/July. Doesn't mean there cannot be a strong hurricane early in the season, just that chances usually are not too great early in the season, since the meteorological conditions typically do not favor major hurricanes yet. Now, if Alberto had formed three months from now with favorable conditions all around, I certainly would agree that everyone should keep posted and monitor it carefully, if you're in the path. Still there's no need to panic, just be aware what it's doing and prepare just incase. Avoid the media hype - just stick with the NHC discussions. They are usually the best in careful analysis of tropical cyclones, although in certain circumstances, even the models (including the GFDL) have been known to overestimate the intensity of several hurricanes at landfall. If it were me, I'd use self-judgment before accepting any forecast cast in stone.

I mean, why live a life full of paranoia, just because a weather radio and a TV set sits beside you ?

Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got

[HollynLA]

This reminds me of TS Bill in '03. It kinda snuck up on Terrebone parish with less than 24 hours warning. While it was not a strong TS (I think its max winds were 60), it caused a considerable amount of flooding in lower Terrebone parish, breaking a levee in Point Aux Chene. Hundres of home had flooded and some people had to be rescued. My camp had water that reached the very bottom floor but didn't not get inside luckily.

After that storm passed, I had read how many thoughts it was "nothing" and didn't do any real damage. That really made me furious as I had seen those in Dulac, Cocodrie, Montegut, Point Aux Chene, etc losing their homes and their belongings to this moderate TS Bill.

Bottom line is, just becasue it didn't affect you doesn't mean it wasn't important. There are those that have experienced damage from a TS and they will never forget it as long as they live while it will slip from your mind within a few days.

[skysummit]

Bottom line is, just becasue it didn't affect you doesn't mean it wasn't important. There are those that have experienced damage from a TS and they will never forget it as long as they live while it will slip from your mind within a few days.

Great opinion Holly. Same goes with Katrina...so many downplay Katrina because the wind damage wasn't catastrophic. Those same people are those who have never stepped a foot in Lakeview, the 9th Ward, Chalmette, Plaquemines Parish. If you never experienced it, that doesn't mean it's not bad. In south La, there is a reason to get a little panicky over a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. Those can do damage here like no other place in the country. Poor lil' Cindy last year...didn't do much flooding, but she did cause some wind damage and knocked out power for over a week in some parts. TS Allison??? Just a tropical storm yet flooded thousands of homes. TS Frances??? Just a tropical storm yet spawned tornadoes to kill friends and relatives. Hurricane Juan??? Barely 74mph, but put 4 feet of water in my home and Halloween was cancelled that year.

Bottom line...I give respect to anything tropical in nature. Whether it be June, August, or November, you just never know.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That's a good point Hyperstorm. There are certainly those that downplay and those that hype weather events. No question about it.


At the beginning of this topic, I was pointing out that early season storms should not be overhyped or panicked about. In September I would certainly agree to be more concerned about tropical systems than in June/July. Doesn't mean there cannot be a strong hurricane early in the season, just that chances usually are not too great early in the season, since the meteorological conditions typically do not favor major hurricanes yet. Now, if Alberto had formed three months from now with favorable conditions all around, I certainly would agree that everyone should keep posted and monitor it carefully, if you're in the path. Still there's no need to panic, just be aware what it's doing and prepare just incase. Avoid the media hype - just stick with the NHC discussions. They are usually the best in careful analysis of tropical cyclones, although in certain circumstances, even the models (including the GFDL) have been known to overestimate the intensity of several hurricanes at landfall. If it were me, I'd use self-judgment before accepting any forecast cast in stone.

I mean, why live a life full of paranoia, just because a weather radio and a TV set sits beside you ?

Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got

I see you are now using JB's sign off phrase..

As for the over-hyping, I do not agree. I think that every storm needs to see the same level of concern, because you never know what will happen. Charley in 2004 was suppose to make landfall as "only" a category 2...less than three hours later it was just 6mph shy of being a Category 5. Audrey in 1957 was likely not forecasted to come ashore as a category 4...but she did. And Allison in 2001 was probably not suppose to dump nearly 40" of rain on Houston, and no one could have forecasted that, but she did. There is just no way to know what to expect, and storms love to throw curve balls. Each storm should be looked at the same until it makes landfall. All it would take is three hours to go from a TS to a Category 3.

BTW: Anyone who has really experienced what 'true' moderate or strong TS force winds feel like (55-73mph sustained) can tell you that it is no joy ride. Luckily, no winds like this were felt from Alberto, but if they would have been, then wind damage would have been much worse.

For example...here is what a strong TS force wind did in Miami after Katrina:

http://k41.pbase.com/v3/85/493885/1/484 ... a_0390.jpg

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/4 ... arland.jpg

**7 were also killed in Miami from winds UNDER Hurricane force**

[The Hurricaner]

Ya it did damage in some places... we got the eye here and i lost power for 1 day here. Wilma came right after and it was worse.
(i live 5min away from NHC)