GFS Long Range Possibilities

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skysummit
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GFS Long Range Possibilities

#1 Postby skysummit » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:00 am

Lots of times when the GFS picks up on a low pass 72 hours, that low just dissappears on the charts, only to give you a "hint" of what may happen. However, this morning, the GFS is showing a low at 84 hours emerging off of Africa and is VERY persistant to bring it across the Atlantic by 384 hours. I know, it's a very long ways out, but still interesting to see something so persistant at that long of a range.

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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:12 am

Persistance is the key, only time will tell.
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#3 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:12 am

hey sky.. not trying to be rude at all. I have been posted about this same thing in my gfs thread if you want to go there and post that would be great. I have been noticing the same thing.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 6&start=20
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#4 Postby no advance » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:28 am

Reminds me of a storm back in 74. It later went on to strike Miami.
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#5 Postby boca » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:34 am

no advance we had a storm in 1974???
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#6 Postby skysummit » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:34 am

Sorry SouthFlorida...I just skimmed the threads this morning. I probably missed it.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:36 am

no advance wrote:Reminds me of a storm back in 74. It later went on to strike Miami.


In 1974, no storm struck Miami!

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#8 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:36 am

skysummit wrote:Sorry SouthFlorida...I just skimmed the threads this morning. I probably missed it.


Hey no problem just letting you know about it. :D
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#9 Postby White Cap » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:46 am

Anyone know what the future steering currents will be for this system? Will it become a fish in the Atlantic or could high pressure build and push it west?
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#10 Postby skysummit » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:49 am

Dunno white cap...according to this GFS, the Atlantic High looks pretty strong and keeps it on a westward track like in the graphic. Of course, this is a LONG way out too.
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#11 Postby White Cap » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:51 am

Thanks Sky - ok, so this is something to keep an eye on, but not push any panic buttons yet. No use panicking today when we can start doing that next week. :D This is going to be a long season, I am afraid.
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#12 Postby no advance » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:04 am

I graduated in 74 I remember surfing Marias in Rincon July 4 1974. The surf was unreal. Long rights big and chunky that could keep you under for a long time, It was uncrowded and scary. Later on that storm which created those bombs moved west into the south Fl. area. I remember seeing a large boat that was thrown upon the shores of Miami in the news. Maybe I am wrong on the dates. I am going to check on that when I have time Remember talkin tropic Take care surf on
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#13 Postby Rainband » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:23 am

White Cap wrote:Anyone know what the future steering currents will be for this system? Will it become a fish in the Atlantic or could high pressure build and push it west?
No system yet. Long Range models are subject to large errors. Nothing to be concerned about until there is a trend ...ie more than one model showing a low developing :wink: BTW Welcome to S2K :D Let us know if you need anything 8-)
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#14 Postby no advance » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:25 am

This really bugs me. I am really in a flat spell. Maybe it was just a dream . Something to watch I dont see anything else.
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#15 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:26 am

no advance wrote:I graduated in 74 I remember surfing Marias in Rincon July 4 1974. The surf was unreal. Long rights big and chunky that could keep you under for a long time, It was uncrowded and scary. Later on that storm which created those bombs moved west into the south Fl. area. I remember seeing a large boat that was thrown upon the shores of Miami in the news. Maybe I am wrong on the dates. I am going to check on that when I have time Remember talkin tropic Take care surf on


You are probably thinking about Hurricane David from 1979. It brushed the southeast Florida coast and Miami with bands.
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#16 Postby White Cap » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:33 am

Rainband wrote:
White Cap wrote:Anyone know what the future steering currents will be for this system? Will it become a fish in the Atlantic or could high pressure build and push it west?
No system yet. Long Range models are subject to large errors. Nothing to be concerned about until there is a trend ...ie more than one model showing a low developing :wink: BTW Welcome to S2K :D Let us know if you need anything 8-)


Thanks Rainband for the welcome! Appreciate your kindness! :wink:
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:37 am

White Cap wrote:
Rainband wrote:
White Cap wrote:Anyone know what the future steering currents will be for this system? Will it become a fish in the Atlantic or could high pressure build and push it west?
No system yet. Long Range models are subject to large errors. Nothing to be concerned about until there is a trend ...ie more than one model showing a low developing :wink: BTW Welcome to S2K :D Let us know if you need anything 8-)


Thanks Rainband for the welcome! Appreciate your kindness! :wink:


WELCOME IN MY PART ALSO!!!! :D :D :D

You'll learn a lot in every storm and everyone is this forum is here to help, always ask when you have a question and it will be answered as quick as possible!!!

WELCOME!!!!
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#18 Postby White Cap » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:47 am

Thanks, thanks, thanks...You all are just too kind! Very helpful forum! The first storm forum I joined was back in 1998 - Hurricane Central and that has since disbanded, but it was a nice group of people, but I do believe this one tops it all! :P
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Rainband

#19 Postby Rainband » Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:52 am

White Cap wrote:Thanks, thanks, thanks...You all are just too kind! Very helpful forum! The first storm forum I joined was back in 1998 - Hurricane Central and that has since disbanded, but it was a nice group of people, but I do believe this one tops it all! :P
We try to make S2K a place that appeals to everyone from the novice to the expert. :P I am glad you feel welcome here :D Thats why we are "The Legal Addiction" :)
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#20 Postby White Cap » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:06 am

:D Between this and coffee I have all the addictions I can handle! :P
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