Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[meteorologyman]

Meteorologyman, actually the "Western Sizzler" ridge over us in Texas is predicted to shift some to the west and open up the coastal region of the state for an upper level trough progged to remain for much of next week.

I know one thing ... the ridge must be right over us in Austin ... because as I type this, it's 101 degrees outside!

Yeesh. 101 is no fun

I almost no how u feel we get near 100's many times, i hope u get relief soon

[CHRISTY]

Great picture. Am I imagining this, or am I starting to see a center?

NO NO not even close yet!right now what u call that is a very healthy tropical wave.

[meteorologyman]

Is this wave forecast to slow down in the next few days?

I'm wondering the same thing can someone plz answer his question if possible

[CHRISTY]

Is this wave forecast to slow down in the next few days?

I'm wondering the same thing can someone plz answer his question if possible

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A MODERATE TO STRONG
SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA

[WxGuy1]

yeah from what I understand, there is a BIG Strong ridge over Texas which is why you're dry and when any storm head your way it goes around the ridge which leaves you dry,....... Unfortanately as long as that ridge is there you'll remain dry, and probably no hope for even a tropical rainfall like Alberto.

Actually, there's a decent upper-level trough over much of the Gulf of Mexico (see http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_200.gif ). The strong ridge aloft that has sat over much of the southern and central plains lately has resulted in record high temperatures and continued the drought. This pattern is changing, and models indicate that a cut-off low may meander over the central/southern Plains by the end of the weekend and into next week. For the Gulf, the NAM is forecasting the trough over the Gulf to cut-off and retrograde slowly to the west-southwest with time. Regardless, there should be decent southwesterly flow aloft across at least the northern 1/2 of the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. The approaching trough that will cut-off into an upper-level low over Plains will act to kick out the western Gulf / Texas coast upper-level low this weekend. Meanwhile, per the GFS forecast, another upper-level low will drop off the southeastern US coast, and put most of the Gulf of Mexico under northerly flow aloft (the exact details differ by model, as expected).

So, I don't see any forecast which would be favorable for a storm to head into the northwester Gulf. Ridging may build into the central and eastern Gulf in a couple of days, but that'll weaken by the weekend. In addition, despite stronger flow in the upper-levels, the southerly 500mb flow to the east of the Texas-coast upper-level may provide a brief window to a storm to squeek into that area, though upper-level flow may provide a less-than-favorable shear pattern. The GFS suggests that, by mid-next week, a relatively low-amplitude, high-wavelength upper-level trough will develop across the Gulf, with southwesterly flow at 250mb across the eastern 1/2. FWIW, the ECMWF indicates that the cut-off low off the SE US coast will retrograde back to the west-northwest. The ECMWF is showing a brief window for a storm to squeek into the western Gulf as well. Of course, hurricanes modify their environment, so we don't know what sort of feedback may be involved.

Of course, this is rather dubious, since the depth of the system significant influence the levels of the troposphere that affect their movement. Deeper systems (e.g. well-organized hurricanes) are more affected by 250mb flow than shallow systems. Therefore, any sort of forecast "trajectory" would need to rely on accurately forecasting the intensity of the sytem. We all know how difficult intensity forecasts are for well-formed storms, and forecasting the intensity of an undeveloped system is shady at best.

[jlauderdal]

I think this will develop once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf.

Looking for an impact on the Western Gulf area, possibly Texas?

If it does develop, then yes, the likely path would be into the western Gulf.

Maybe you can elaborate for us. Whatever this wave could end up being, is as likely to move towards Central America as the Gulf.

What makes you feel that the Gulf and specifically the Western Gulf would be a target area?

its a pattern with extremeweather guy that in this very young season systems are heading towards the gulf

[rockyman]

There is definitely an eddy detectable in the visible imagery just south of 15N...but it only became apparent as the sun started to set...the angle of the sun tends to emphasize mid-level vortices...since we're about to lose visible, it will probably be in the morning before we'll know more...more than likely, this eddy will fall apart and a new one will try to form...like starting a generator (which I've done a few times today)...it sometimes takes one pull, sometimes 5 pulls, and sometimes it's just broke and won't start at all

[ammmyjjjj]

Actually our weather people here in houston are telling us that when this ridge we have protecting us moves in the next couple of days we are gonna be stuck in the middle & prime for anything in the gulf:)

[Audrey2Katrina]

That was what I was pointing toward as well. Doubtless way too early, as nothing on the NHC-TPC site about it-- YET... we shall have to wait and see.

A2K

[gatorcane]

yeah from what I understand, there is a BIG Strong ridge over Texas which is why you're dry and when any storm head your way it goes around the ridge which leaves you dry,....... Unfortanately as long as that ridge is there you'll remain dry, and probably no hope for even a tropical rainfall like Alberto.

Actually, there's a decent upper-level trough over much of the Gulf of Mexico (see http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_200.gif ). The strong ridge aloft that has sat over much of the southern and central plains lately has resulted in record high temperatures and continued the drought. This pattern is changing, and models indicate that a cut-off low may meander over the central/southern Plains by the end of the weekend and into next week. For the Gulf, the NAM is forecasting the trough over the Gulf to cut-off and retrograde slowly to the west-southwest with time. Regardless, there should be decent southwesterly flow aloft across at least the northern 1/2 of the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. The approaching trough that will cut-off into an upper-level low over Plains will act to kick out the western Gulf / Texas coast upper-level low this weekend. Meanwhile, per the GFS forecast, another upper-level low will drop off the southeastern US coast, and put most of the Gulf of Mexico under northerly flow aloft (the exact details differ by model, as expected).

So, I don't see any forecast which would be favorable for a storm to head into the northwester Gulf. Ridging may build into the central and eastern Gulf in a couple of days, but that'll weaken by the weekend. In addition, despite stronger flow in the upper-levels, the southerly 500mb flow to the east of the Texas-coast upper-level may provide a brief window to a storm to squeek into that area, though upper-level flow may provide a less-than-favorable shear pattern. The GFS suggests that, by mid-next week, a relatively low-amplitude, high-wavelength upper-level trough will develop across the Gulf, with southwesterly flow at 250mb across the eastern 1/2. FWIW, the ECMWF indicates that the cut-off low off the SE US coast will retrograde back to the west-northwest. The ECMWF is showing a brief window for a storm to squeek into the western Gulf as well. Of course, hurricanes modify their environment, so we don't know what sort of feedback may be involved.

Of course, this is rather dubious, since the depth of the system significant influence the levels of the troposphere that affect their movement. Deeper systems (e.g. well-organized hurricanes) are more affected by 250mb flow than shallow systems. Therefore, any sort of forecast "trajectory" would need to rely on accurately forecasting the intensity of the sytem. We all know how difficult intensity forecasts are for well-formed storms, and forecasting the intensity of an undeveloped system is shady at best.

So basically another Alberto/Charley like scenario with the trough.....if something even develops?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Actually our weather people here in houston are telling us that when this ridge we have protecting us moves in the next couple of days we are gonna be stuck in the middle & prime for anything in the gulf:)

That's strange the local weatherman would mention that. At this point there is nothing to be really worried about.

[CHRISTY]

Guys take a look at this loop it seems to me this one may be another fighter.convection continues to flare up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this will develop once it reaches the western Carrib. or Gulf.

Looking for an impact on the Western Gulf area, possibly Texas?

If it does develop, then yes, the likely path would be into the western Gulf.

Maybe you can elaborate for us. Whatever this wave could end up being, is as likely to move towards Central America as the Gulf.

What makes you feel that the Gulf and specifically the Western Gulf would be a target area?

the ridge over Texas is expected to move more westward and there will be a weakness that forms on the eastern side. This weakness will lead to an onshore breeze beginning this weekend which will increase our rain chances. This weakness will also allow any storm that works into the NW Caribbean or southern Gulf to move around the soon to develop high in the eastern Gulf and into the Mexico to Louisiana area (most likely area being TX). This high in the eastern Gulf will also help keep storms away from or south of Florida.

You can see the weakness on the 72 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Also, here is part of the Houston AFD from this afternoon:

PROGS NOT OFFER-
ING UP MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE INCREASE OF POPS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING PAST SE TX TODAY
DEEPENS OVER THE WRN GULF AND RETURNS BACK UP THE COAST SAT/SUN.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE SET TO SURGE INTO THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM BY FRI (LATE THUR FOR OFFSHORE WATERS) SO HAVE STARTED THE
LOWISH POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS JUST A
TOUCH FOR THE WEEKEND PROPER AS MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO RISE (AND
GET HARDER TO IGNORE). THE POTENTIAL WETTER WEEKEND WOULD SEEM TO
HERALD A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOST/ALL OF THE LONG-
RANGE PROGS NOW PUTTING THE FA IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS REGION
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER TEMPS SOME/INCREASE RHS/PRODUCE
MAINLY DIURNAL PCPN ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.

**of course with an actual system things can change quickly and forecasts change. I am not saying this is coming to TX, but I think it is possible that the western Gulf could see a storm (though may be not to Texas). Time will tell...**

[meteorologyman]

yeah from what I understand, there is a BIG Strong ridge over Texas which is why you're dry and when any storm head your way it goes around the ridge which leaves you dry,....... Unfortanately as long as that ridge is there you'll remain dry, and probably no hope for even a tropical rainfall like Alberto.

Actually, there's a decent upper-level trough over much of the Gulf of Mexico (see http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_200.gif ). The strong ridge aloft that has sat over much of the southern and central plains lately has resulted in record high temperatures and continued the drought. This pattern is changing, and models indicate that a cut-off low may meander over the central/southern Plains by the end of the weekend and into next week. For the Gulf, the NAM is forecasting the trough over the Gulf to cut-off and retrograde slowly to the west-southwest with time. Regardless, there should be decent southwesterly flow aloft across at least the northern 1/2 of the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. The approaching trough that will cut-off into an upper-level low over Plains will act to kick out the western Gulf / Texas coast upper-level low this weekend. Meanwhile, per the GFS forecast, another upper-level low will drop off the southeastern US coast, and put most of the Gulf of Mexico under northerly flow aloft (the exact details differ by model, as expected).

So, I don't see any forecast which would be favorable for a storm to head into the northwester Gulf. Ridging may build into the central and eastern Gulf in a couple of days, but that'll weaken by the weekend. In addition, despite stronger flow in the upper-levels, the southerly 500mb flow to the east of the Texas-coast upper-level may provide a brief window to a storm to squeek into that area, though upper-level flow may provide a less-than-favorable shear pattern. The GFS suggests that, by mid-next week, a relatively low-amplitude, high-wavelength upper-level trough will develop across the Gulf, with southwesterly flow at 250mb across the eastern 1/2. FWIW, the ECMWF indicates that the cut-off low off the SE US coast will retrograde back to the west-northwest. The ECMWF is showing a brief window for a storm to squeek into the western Gulf as well. Of course, hurricanes modify their environment, so we don't know what sort of feedback may be involved.

Of course, this is rather dubious, since the depth of the system significant influence the levels of the troposphere that affect their movement. Deeper systems (e.g. well-organized hurricanes) are more affected by 250mb flow than shallow systems. Therefore, any sort of forecast "trajectory" would need to rely on accurately forecasting the intensity of the sytem. We all know how difficult intensity forecasts are for well-formed storms, and forecasting the intensity of an undeveloped system is shady at best.

I found more info relating to this topic

...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTTEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING, BRINGING CONTINUED HOT AND DRYWEATHER TO THE WGRFC REGION. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARYEXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, ACROSSNORTHERN TEXAS, INTO LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT HAD HELPED GENERATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNTIED STATES AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WGRFC AREA BY
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER, BY THIS WEEKEND, THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, JB thinks that the next "gulf pulse" with a chance of development will be west of the last one (which turned into Alberto). So if the last one was in the eastern Gulf, that would lead me to believe that the next will be in the central/western Gulf.

[CHRISTY]

The area were alberto hit was under LOW under his strike graphic....goes to show thats why there only predictions.

[Ivanhater]

Its nice to be back, it must be Hurricane Season. TWO says conditions are unfavorable for development - I hope they say that all season long - but doubt it.

TX sure could use a weak tropical system - otherwise I dont think its going to rain againi until October.

dwg, your back!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The area were alberto hit was under LOW under his strike graphic....goes to show thats why there only predictions.

actually, based on his impact point system, he predicted at least some impact from storms this year in western FL. As long as no major storm hits that area, his forecast will be on track.

[whereverwx]

Here's another loop of it.

(Btw, notice how we're only 13 days into the season. Not everything develops. )

[SouthFloridawx]

Man that thing is booking it across the caribbean.