GFS Model Output and Discussion

#1 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:42 pm

For the past few runs GFS has been showing low pressure moving through the Atlantic coming off the African Coast. I know this a long way off and that Cape Verde Season is a couple months away but, I am going post the progress on the GFS and this future area it is depicting.

Current Eastern Atlantic Image

12Z GFS from Cyclone Phase page

12Z GFS track of the Future low

18Z GFS 850mb Voticity 48 Hours

18Z GFS 850mb Vorticity 72 Hours

18Z GFS Sea Level Pressure Loop
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

HurricaneHunter914 · #2 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:43 pm

Beryl has suddenly popped in my mind, but only time will tell.

Coredesat · #3 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:44 pm

I was about to post about that. The GFS doesn't really do a whole lot with it right now (just a weak, albeit warm-core, low), but it could be something to watch.

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:45 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:I was about to post about that. The GFS doesn't really do a whole lot with it right now (just a weak, albeit warm-core, low), but it could be something to watch.

Beat ya to it!! :lol:

j/k

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:47 pm

I will have to make a main thread for tropical waves only as right now there are three out there.

HurricaneHunter914 · #6 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:49 pm

Yup one near the Lesser Antilles, another one at low latitudes near South America, and this one near Cape Verde.

#7 Postby **windycity** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:07 am

i think we might get our second named storm out of one of these.And to think, its only June.

southerngale · #8 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:44 pm

Is it still showing it today or has it backed off?

x-y-no · #9 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:55 pm

southerngale wrote:Is it still showing it today or has it backed off?

It's still showing it.

12z run has a pretty strong closed low for a few days - loses it on days 6/7 but actually carries a fairly strong open wave all the way into the Bahamas on days 10/11.

Pretty early for that kind of thing, but we'll see.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:56 pm

southerngale wrote:Is it still showing it today or has it backed off?

[url=http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif] GFS at 144 hours

[/url]

:uarrow:

Kelly GFS backed off from that scenario for now.Maybe they come back at future runs with it but for this 12z run nothing.

GFS at 264 hours

Above is what Jan is talking about but no strong low there.

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:58 pm

Remember also, the GFS didn't pick up on Alberto until the last minute. NAM and CMC saw it way ahead of time.

x-y-no · #12 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 1:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:
southerngale wrote:Is it still showing it today or has it backed off?

[url=http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif] GFS at 144 hours

[/url]

Kelly GFS backed off from that scenario for now.Maybe they come back at future runs with it but for this 12z run nothing.

GFS at 264 hours

Above is what Jan is talking about but no strong low there.

Actually, that's very similar to what last nights run looked like out at that timepoint.

EDIT: Certainly right that it's only a wave into the Bahamas (and I don't put much stock in that long-range stuff anyway)

#13 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:50 pm

southerngale wrote:Is it still showing it today or has it backed off?

See the tropical wave thread kelly... i am posting graphics from the gfs on there.

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:52 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
southerngale wrote:Is it still showing it today or has it backed off?

See the tropical wave thread kelly... i am posting graphics from the gfs on there.

Ok, but why not post the GFS stuff in the GFS thread?

Anyway, thanks everyone.

#15 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:16 pm

Here ya go Kelly

SouthFloridawx wrote:12Z GFS 6-13-06

#16 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:17 pm

Also to note is the FSU MM5

SouthFloridawx wrote:12Z MM5 fsu 06-13-06

Dustin · #17 Postby **Dustin** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:20 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Beryl has suddenly popped in my mind, but only time will tell.

LEts not hype things. Please.... every wave will not develop. :roll:

HurricaneHunter914 · #18 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:45 pm

Dustin wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Beryl has suddenly popped in my mind, but only time will tell.

LEts not hype things. Please.... every wave will not develop.

I'm not saying it will develop I'm saying it might develop. I think this forum needs to stop going straight to conclusions about what someone says and assume what they think that person meant.

#19 Postby **decgirl66** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:50 pm

Maybe we should avoid jumping to conclusions or assuming....IMO. If you are not clear on what someone has said, maybe you can pm that person or ask for clarification on the thread. :bday:

#20 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:51 pm

I agree on the last couple posts. I, for one, am getting tired of such comments. This board is just not like it used to be.

GFS Model Output and Discussion

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