We can speculate all we want, but we all know that every unnecessary emergency declaration and evacuation makes the population a bit more complacent.
I don't blame it on JEB, because he was acting on bad information that he had to trust.
Way To Go Jeb
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I didn't read the whole thread, but the Katrina "fiasco" wasn't really a fiasco. They got 90% of the population out in 48 hours that was supposed to take 72. The leftover poor, infirmed and elderly were not cared for in a way they should have, but that's city, state and federal. Many people said the same thing you're saying about Governor Bush about Governor Barbour. The Baltimore Sun exposed that.
http://home.millsaps.edu/mcelvrs/Miss-M ... -12-05.htm
My friend Brian F. had some nice comments to a MS expatriate who was also tooting Governor Barbour's horn:
Originally posted by BullDawg
The fact MS had a plan in weeks before LA did had nothing to do with it huh?
BF:
What plan? Evacuation?
The evacuation of New Orleans was a resounding success. 1.2 million of 1.3 million people evacuated in roughly 48 hours when the Hurricane Pam exercise estimated that it would take 72 hours. Less than 2000 died due to the flooding when the Hurricane Pam exercise estimated between 25,000 and 100,000 deaths.
That Hurricane Pam exercise was complete in 2004. WHat the group found were lots and lots of holes. They decided to go their seperate ways, work to fill those holes and meet again a year later to fill in the "TBD" in the plan.
One year later FEMA cancels the meeting due to budgetary contraints.
Two days before Katrina makes landfall Blanco asks Bush to declare the area a Federal Disaster Area which according ti the brand spanking new plan pushed through by the Bush Administration via DHS makes it a Federal Operation. Blanco asks him to "send everything he's got". Bush sends nothing. Granted that was an extremely vague request, but I can't help but wonder if she were placing her trust in the hands of an Administration that just passed legislation to handle this very type of situation. Was it her fault for believing they would do as FEMA was supposed to? I can't imagine the feeling she must have had watching the Crown Jewel of her state slowly engulfed by the lake while President Bush attends a fundraiser in San Diego and flies over a day later while FEMA finally gets off it's hands.
Yet, no one gets past Mee-Maw's crying, babbling and look of shock on television or Nagin's rough language on radio speaking directly to Brown, Chertoff and Bush.
You are correct. It is indeed a perception issue...
As for the damage, it wasn't the Act of God that caused problems in New Orleans anyway. It was the manmade disaster. In terms of wind damage (actual hurricane issues) it wasn't anything special that New Orleans hasn't seen the last 100 years anyway. Had the levees not given way those folks at the Superdome would have all walked back home. Instead it's nearly a year later and some have yet to even see their homes since that fateful day in August.
The recovery effort began in Mississippi the next day. In NOLA it didn't begin until two weeks later when the last of the flood waters had finally been pumped out of the city.
So, in summary: Blanco has no media composure (which anyone who watched the Gubanatorial debates already knew), the comunications for the entire operations was underwater hours after Katrina hit the city (and you of all people know how key communications are to these operations), the state and FEMA never finished their plan, the state (under Blanco's direction) did world's better than the best case scenario the Hurricane Pam group came up with. Did I miss anything?
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Bottom line is that beginning with Texas and Louisiana for Hurricane Rita then Wilma in Florida, it was obvious that state governments were going to have to be less chancy with these types of situations. I applaud the Governor's call for evacuations (where necessary) and for the state of Emergency. It's the least a high-ranking state official can do when it's blatantly obvious that the Federal Government is unable to handle some situations as quickly as it and the public would like.
Steve
http://home.millsaps.edu/mcelvrs/Miss-M ... -12-05.htm
My friend Brian F. had some nice comments to a MS expatriate who was also tooting Governor Barbour's horn:
Originally posted by BullDawg
The fact MS had a plan in weeks before LA did had nothing to do with it huh?
BF:
What plan? Evacuation?
The evacuation of New Orleans was a resounding success. 1.2 million of 1.3 million people evacuated in roughly 48 hours when the Hurricane Pam exercise estimated that it would take 72 hours. Less than 2000 died due to the flooding when the Hurricane Pam exercise estimated between 25,000 and 100,000 deaths.
That Hurricane Pam exercise was complete in 2004. WHat the group found were lots and lots of holes. They decided to go their seperate ways, work to fill those holes and meet again a year later to fill in the "TBD" in the plan.
One year later FEMA cancels the meeting due to budgetary contraints.
Two days before Katrina makes landfall Blanco asks Bush to declare the area a Federal Disaster Area which according ti the brand spanking new plan pushed through by the Bush Administration via DHS makes it a Federal Operation. Blanco asks him to "send everything he's got". Bush sends nothing. Granted that was an extremely vague request, but I can't help but wonder if she were placing her trust in the hands of an Administration that just passed legislation to handle this very type of situation. Was it her fault for believing they would do as FEMA was supposed to? I can't imagine the feeling she must have had watching the Crown Jewel of her state slowly engulfed by the lake while President Bush attends a fundraiser in San Diego and flies over a day later while FEMA finally gets off it's hands.
Yet, no one gets past Mee-Maw's crying, babbling and look of shock on television or Nagin's rough language on radio speaking directly to Brown, Chertoff and Bush.
You are correct. It is indeed a perception issue...
As for the damage, it wasn't the Act of God that caused problems in New Orleans anyway. It was the manmade disaster. In terms of wind damage (actual hurricane issues) it wasn't anything special that New Orleans hasn't seen the last 100 years anyway. Had the levees not given way those folks at the Superdome would have all walked back home. Instead it's nearly a year later and some have yet to even see their homes since that fateful day in August.
The recovery effort began in Mississippi the next day. In NOLA it didn't begin until two weeks later when the last of the flood waters had finally been pumped out of the city.
So, in summary: Blanco has no media composure (which anyone who watched the Gubanatorial debates already knew), the comunications for the entire operations was underwater hours after Katrina hit the city (and you of all people know how key communications are to these operations), the state and FEMA never finished their plan, the state (under Blanco's direction) did world's better than the best case scenario the Hurricane Pam group came up with. Did I miss anything?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bottom line is that beginning with Texas and Louisiana for Hurricane Rita then Wilma in Florida, it was obvious that state governments were going to have to be less chancy with these types of situations. I applaud the Governor's call for evacuations (where necessary) and for the state of Emergency. It's the least a high-ranking state official can do when it's blatantly obvious that the Federal Government is unable to handle some situations as quickly as it and the public would like.
Steve
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mf_dolphin
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Re: Way To Go Jeb
tropicstorm wrote: I swear that I can never remember any governor or authoritative agency in the past declaring a state of emergency and mandated evacuations for a tropical storm!
Governor Mark Sanford of SC evacuated for Tropical Storm Gaston in 2004. Gaston was similar to Alberto in that it could have easily become a hurricane. I'm not a fan of Sanford (in fact today is election day here and I'm voting against him), but I think it was the right decision then, and Bush made the right decision yesterday.
Last edited by Regit on Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Way To Go Jeb
Regit wrote:tropicstorm wrote: I swear that I can never remember any governor or authoritative agency in the past declaring a state of emergency and mandated evacuations for a tropical storm!
Governor Mark Sanford of SC evacuated for Tropical Storm Gaston in 2004. Gaston was similar to Alberto in that it could have easily become a hurricane. I'm not a fan of Sanford (in fact today is election day here and I'm voting against him), but I think it was the right decision then, and Bush made the right decision yesterday.
Gaston was a hurricane when it made land fall not a Tropical Storm.The only thing is they renamed it a Hurricane after the season was over.
Heres link:www.nch.noaa.gov/2004gaston.shtml
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>>Let's keep in mind that the inital response to a hurricane disaster is now and has always been the responsibility of the local and state government. The Federal government should supplement that effort not replace it....
mf,
That's not always possible. Sometimes you have situations where the local and state government are powerless and against odds that only the full force of the United States of America can handle. I still remember reading posts about Miami-area posters claiming Katrina wasn't anything compared to Andrew. Heh. Well when the numbers are all finally in - say 5-10 years - it's liable to end up somewhere between 3 to 4 times the storm Andrew was and perhaps 10 times the storm Hugo was (in real dollar damages). So when disasters of a certain magnitude affect the country, it's no longer possible that state and local governments can do much - espcially when all the infrastructure (communications, roads, etc.) is compromised.
Steve
mf,
That's not always possible. Sometimes you have situations where the local and state government are powerless and against odds that only the full force of the United States of America can handle. I still remember reading posts about Miami-area posters claiming Katrina wasn't anything compared to Andrew. Heh. Well when the numbers are all finally in - say 5-10 years - it's liable to end up somewhere between 3 to 4 times the storm Andrew was and perhaps 10 times the storm Hugo was (in real dollar damages). So when disasters of a certain magnitude affect the country, it's no longer possible that state and local governments can do much - espcially when all the infrastructure (communications, roads, etc.) is compromised.
Steve
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So, in summary: Blanco has no media composure (which anyone who watched the Gubanatorial debates already knew), the comunications for the entire operations was underwater hours after Katrina hit the city (and you of all people know how key communications are to these operations), the state and FEMA never finished their plan, the state (under Blanco's direction) did world's better than the best case scenario the Hurricane Pam group came up with. Did I miss anything?
lets not forget that Bush offered for the feds to take over the effort in LA but was denied by blanco so the delay was on both their parts but mostly local levels.Regardless of that anytime a storm of katrinas size is coming there should be no delay executing a plan even if it is a few days before it is certain where it will make landfall.Remember Floyd when he was approaching florida at that time it was the largest evac for a storm ever!
lets not forget that Bush offered for the feds to take over the effort in LA but was denied by blanco so the delay was on both their parts but mostly local levels.Regardless of that anytime a storm of katrinas size is coming there should be no delay executing a plan even if it is a few days before it is certain where it will make landfall.Remember Floyd when he was approaching florida at that time it was the largest evac for a storm ever!
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>>lets not forget that Bush offered for the feds to take over the effort in LA but was denied by blanco so the delay was on both their parts but mostly local levels.
Yeah. That was an interesting case study. Apparently the other 49 governors (or 48 of them, can't remember) backed the governor on that one stating that the National Guard should remain under the direction of state.
>>Regardless of that anytime a storm of katrinas size is coming there should be no delay executing a plan even if it is a few days before it is certain where it will make landfall.Remember Floyd when he was approaching florida at that time it was the largest evac for a storm ever!
I agree with you on that. But remember, the Hurricane Pam exercise (as well as what they've always told us) showed that it would take 72 hours to fully evacuate the metro area and the bayous. We didn't have that much time since it wasn't until Friday evening when the NHC moved their projected path over from the Panhandle. The Governor and Mayor both urged people to leave ASAP, and even though they didn't follow through until Sunday with the contraflow plan, the roads were clogged all day Saturday, all night Saturday Night and all day Sunday, everyone who was going to leave left. That leaves those that the system actually failed - the poor, elderly, infirmed and such. Now out of that remaining 100,000, you have to figure that 60-75,000 of them had no intention of leaving (similar to me but I didn't have a choice this one time -only time I ever evacuated FWIW). This included many elderly whites and blacks (some of whom drowned) who figured they'd seen worse or that Katrina was going to turn and miss us just like Georges, Ivan, Dennis, etc. etc. etc. In other words many of them were complacent and/or didn't want to be bothered. Of the remainder (and that's some of the 60-75k and some of the additional 25-40k), many of them were without transportation or the ability to get out. And finally, you had that few hundred to possibly 2 thousand people who stayed in order to scam what they could.
Steve
Yeah. That was an interesting case study. Apparently the other 49 governors (or 48 of them, can't remember) backed the governor on that one stating that the National Guard should remain under the direction of state.
>>Regardless of that anytime a storm of katrinas size is coming there should be no delay executing a plan even if it is a few days before it is certain where it will make landfall.Remember Floyd when he was approaching florida at that time it was the largest evac for a storm ever!
I agree with you on that. But remember, the Hurricane Pam exercise (as well as what they've always told us) showed that it would take 72 hours to fully evacuate the metro area and the bayous. We didn't have that much time since it wasn't until Friday evening when the NHC moved their projected path over from the Panhandle. The Governor and Mayor both urged people to leave ASAP, and even though they didn't follow through until Sunday with the contraflow plan, the roads were clogged all day Saturday, all night Saturday Night and all day Sunday, everyone who was going to leave left. That leaves those that the system actually failed - the poor, elderly, infirmed and such. Now out of that remaining 100,000, you have to figure that 60-75,000 of them had no intention of leaving (similar to me but I didn't have a choice this one time -only time I ever evacuated FWIW). This included many elderly whites and blacks (some of whom drowned) who figured they'd seen worse or that Katrina was going to turn and miss us just like Georges, Ivan, Dennis, etc. etc. etc. In other words many of them were complacent and/or didn't want to be bothered. Of the remainder (and that's some of the 60-75k and some of the additional 25-40k), many of them were without transportation or the ability to get out. And finally, you had that few hundred to possibly 2 thousand people who stayed in order to scam what they could.
Steve
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IIRC, Katrina pounded the hell out of south Florida last year .. they are still recovering in some areas. It was merely a tropical storm.
Contrast this to the dunderheads up in Louisiana .. their inept, weepy Governor and the newly reelected moron Mayor in the Big Easy .. who had a Cat 5 bearing down and did essentially nothing and then complained that George Bush was to blame (hundreds of school buses sitting in two feet of water
) .
I applaud our Governor for being proactive! What's the harm in evacuating for a few hours, or a day or so to ensure that lives are not in danger?!
At the risk of making this political thread political I'll just consider this thread as more of the popular sport of Bush-bashing!
Contrast this to the dunderheads up in Louisiana .. their inept, weepy Governor and the newly reelected moron Mayor in the Big Easy .. who had a Cat 5 bearing down and did essentially nothing and then complained that George Bush was to blame (hundreds of school buses sitting in two feet of water
) .
I applaud our Governor for being proactive! What's the harm in evacuating for a few hours, or a day or so to ensure that lives are not in danger?!
At the risk of making this political thread political
I'll just consider this thread as more of the popular sport of Bush-bashing!
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Steve wrote:>>Let's keep in mind that the inital response to a hurricane disaster is now and has always been the responsibility of the local and state government. The Federal government should supplement that effort not replace it....
mf,
That's not always possible. Sometimes you have situations where the local and state government are powerless and against odds that only the full force of the United States of America can handle. I still remember reading posts about Miami-area posters claiming Katrina wasn't anything compared to Andrew. Heh. Well when the numbers are all finally in - say 5-10 years - it's liable to end up somewhere between 3 to 4 times the storm Andrew was and perhaps 10 times the storm Hugo was (in real dollar damages). So when disasters of a certain magnitude affect the country, it's no longer possible that state and local governments can do much - espcially when all the infrastructure (communications, roads, etc.) is compromised.
Steve
That's a cop-out! All the State has to do is make a phone call! "Mr President .. I am officially requesting your help in this disaster."
The crying Governor did not make that phone call until it was obvious that she realized that she had a MAJOR political fiasco and human disaster on her hands. Too late!
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Re: Jeb Was Wrong
tropicstorm wrote:I'm sorry - I can't agree. Any governor or government leader that instills panic and fear in their own citizens unnecessarily when their perception of the risks is way out of line with the true reality of any situation is not serving the best interests of the citizens that they govern. This cry wolf scenario is not helpful to the public and could very well cause people to ignore future warnings when the dangers do become real with a tropical storm that will rapidly intensify and strengthen into a dangerous hurricane. I'll stick to my guns here - Jeb exaggerated the risk of Alberto and caused a disservice to the citizens of some of the Florida Guf Coast counties. I sure hope they listen to him next time when a real hurricane will surely threaten their lives and properties.
This is the type of thinking that cost ALOT of people their lives in Katrina. If only someone in charge in LA would have cried wolf.
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gtalum
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Katrina was an annular Category 5 storm in the Gulf. Alberto was a weak, poorly organized TS in teh Gulf. There is quite a difference between the two.
The NHC screwed up by issuing hurricane warnings, and JEB did what he had to do in that circumstance. Both, it turns out, severely overreacted and people will become a little bit more complacent because of it. It's tough to be in charge.
The NHC screwed up by issuing hurricane warnings, and JEB did what he had to do in that circumstance. Both, it turns out, severely overreacted and people will become a little bit more complacent because of it. It's tough to be in charge.
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x-y-no
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gtalum wrote:Katrina was an annular Category 5 storm in the Gulf. Alberto was a weak, poorly organized TS in teh Gulf. There is quite a difference between the two.
The NHC screwed up by issuing hurricane warnings, and JEB did what he had to do in that circumstance. Both, it turns out, severely overreacted and people will become a little bit more complacent because of it. It's tough to be in charge.
I don't think either the NHC or the Governor screwed up. Remember, Alberto had fought back from almost being dissipated to being only 5mph shy of hurricane strength. Had he tracked a little more to the right and thus avoided some shear, he could very well have made landfall as a hurricane.
In light of that possibility, the call they made was the right one, IMHO. If people become more complacent as a result, well I guess such foolishness is just an unavoidable part of human nature.
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gratefulnole
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gtalum wrote:The NHC screwed up by issuing hurricane warnings, and JEB did what he had to do in that circumstance. Both, it turns out, severely overreacted and people will become a little bit more complacent because of it. It's tough to be in charge.
It isn't like an evacuation order was made for all of Tampa with warnings of extensive damage. It was an evacuation for just the coastal residents in one of the most sparsely populated coastlines in the state. It affected less than 20,000 people and it was for possible storm surge, not possible wind damage.
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stormtruth
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This thread could use some instant html buttons like:
1)Press this button to insert a heroic Jeb Bush comment
or
2)Press this button to complain about Blanco
The truth is when the $130 billion Florida hurricane hits neither Jeb or any future governor will be able to help.
1)Press this button to insert a heroic Jeb Bush comment
or
2)Press this button to complain about Blanco
The truth is when the $130 billion Florida hurricane hits neither Jeb or any future governor will be able to help.
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