Are we entering a new era of hurricane development!

[NBCintern]

In 2005, we have had the most named systems in recorded history. In 2004, we saw 3-4 hurricanes slam Florida. In recent memory, I have never seen a system develop as ugly as Alberto did, but it beat the odds and shear. However, I don’t think I have ever seen a system fight like Alberto did against so much shear. Is this a prelude to how systems will be in the future? Are we going to see more systems become resilient to shear, etc??

[boca]

New Genetic Enhanced Hurricanes that would make a good Hollywood movie.

[windycity]

How about " Hurricanes gone wild???"

[CajunMama]

Hurricanes Gone Wild...wasn't that the North Gulf Coast Get-together?

[NBCintern]

:D How about " Hurricanes gone wild???"

Okay stop it, I am getting nast thoughts.....

[beachbum_al]

Hurricane Gone Wild???? I am not even going to say anything. Yes, I am speechless and that is hard to believe.


Are those pictures anywhere on here from the get together? If I have permission from those who were there I would like to put a nice, clean movie together with music on movie maker or photo story. I love putting those little movies together. I did one for my class this year and one for my daughter's class and the kids really thought it was neat.

[kenl01]

Maybe they should call it "hurricanes on the decrease"

The mean intensity of all hurricanes has decreased in the last 50 years, according to NHC statistics and trends.

[beachbum_al]

Maybe they should call it "hurricanes on the decrease"

The mean intensity of all hurricanes has decreased in the last 50 years.

Decreased in which way. The last two years were above normal unless I read that wrong.

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe they should call it "hurricanes on the decrease"

The mean intensity of all hurricanes has decreased in the last 50 years.

Decreased in which way. The last two years were above normal unless I read that wrong.

Meaning all hurricanes in all six of the basins over the world. A couple of basins have shown and increase but, for the most part the intesity has a gone down a little. Max Mayfield touched on this in a couple of interviews.

[beachbum_al]

Thanks SouthFloridawx. I was thinking just over in the Atlantic Basin. That explains it though.

[kenl01]

Last two years where active yes, but overall intensity has been decreasing over the long term. The current active years since 2004 are just part of a warm cycle in the Atlantic relating to the Atlantic mult-decadal oscillation.

Less Hurricanes in last 50 years than during 1850-1950 ??

So where is the increase in Hurricanes? The chart below (derived from data at the National Hurricane Center site) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml#history shows the number of Hurricanes making landfall in the United States in each of the three 50-year periods from 1850 to 2000.

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?id=8892

Looking carefully at the chart, far more hurricanes hit the US between 1850 and 1900. The number of US landfalling hurricanes actually went down starting about 1900, and noticeably so starting about 1950.

The 1940s were rather busy, the 70s the quietest, and the 1990s pretty close to the long-term average. A simple linear fit suggests a decrease over time. This is a result echoed by Easterling, et al (2000), who said, 'the number of intense and landfalling Atlantic hurricanes has declined.' In the Gulf of Mexico there is 'no sign of an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity,' according to Bove, et al (1998). For the North Atlantic as a whole, according to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, 'Reliable data … since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased.'"

The broader measure of major hurricane formation (Category 3 or above) shows that such formation was more impressive during the peak of the last warm cycle than at present. During the 1945-55 period, 42/115 (37%) tropical cyclones grew into major hurricanes. So far, 1995-2005 (through Rita) has seen 43/156 (28%) tropical cyclones grow into major hurricanes. Thus, the 1945-1955 period saw tropical cyclones grow into major hurricanes approximately 32% more often than the current period.

[x-y-no]

Maybe they should call it "hurricanes on the decrease"

The mean intensity of all hurricanes has decreased in the last 50 years, according to NHC statistics and trends.

Well, that's a bold claim. Care to offer anything at all to back it up?

The various research by Webster et al. and Emmanuel et al. which appear to show a substantial increase in intensity over the last 35 years have, with some justice, met with criticisms regarding the quality of the data set prior to the early 80s. So how is it that you believe you know the mean intensity of storms even earlier than that?

[SouthFloridawx]

So where is the increase in Hurricanes?

Just noting what I have heard from the comments of max mayfield about GW.

[kenl01]

I'm sorry but they are NOT getting stronger..........

see link above.

Thank You

[Jim Hughes]

I'm sorry but they are NOT getting stronger..........

see link above.

Thank You

You obviously know that I believe in the space weather influence here. So I am not in the GW camp in reference to the ATL increase.

But your links show charts about US landfalls etc...Not overall intensity level patterns on a global or yearly/decadal scale.

[x-y-no]

Last two years where active yes, but overall intensity has been decreasing over the long term. The current active years since 2004 are just part of a warm cycle in the Atlantic relating to the Atlantic mult-decadal oscillation.

Less Hurricanes in last 50 years than during 1850-1950 ??

So where is the increase in Hurricanes? The chart below (derived from data at the National Hurricane Center site) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml#history shows the number of Hurricanes making landfall in the United States in each of the three 50-year periods from 1850 to 2000.

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?id=8892

That chart is of landfalls on the continental US, not of overall "mean intensity".

And if you add in 2005, with its 5 landfalling hurricanes, 3 of them majors, then this decade is running ahead of the 40's.

Looking carefully at the chart, far more hurricanes hit the US between 1850 and 1900. The number of US landfalling hurricanes actually went down starting about 1900, and noticeably so starting about 1950.

There's quite a number of Cat 1s listed in those early years, but no particularly striking trend in intense storms. So I'm inclined to bring up the data quality issue again - are we confident that some of those early Cat 1s weren't really TS srength?

The 1940s were rather busy, the 70s the quietest, and the 1990s pretty close to the long-term average. A simple linear fit suggests a decrease over time. This is a result echoed by Easterling, et al (2000), who said, 'the number of intense and landfalling Atlantic hurricanes has declined.' In the Gulf of Mexico there is 'no sign of an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity,' according to Bove, et al (1998). For the North Atlantic as a whole, according to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, 'Reliable data … since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased.'"

OK, now that might be getting closer to supporting your claim, assuming the "Bove et al" quote isn't out of context. I'll look for that paper.

I would point out that, being published in 1998, it neccesarily omits the recent activity.

The broader measure of major hurricane formation (Category 3 or above) shows that such formation was more impressive during the peak of the last warm cycle than at present. During the 1945-55 period, 42/115 (37%) tropical cyclones grew into major hurricanes. So far, 1995-2005 (through Rita) has seen 43/156 (28%) tropical cyclones grow into major hurricanes. Thus, the 1945-1955 period saw tropical cyclones grow into major hurricanes approximately 32% more often than the current period.

Again, I have to raise the data quality issue, which skeptics have quite validly raised with regard to the recent work by Webster et al. and Emmanuel et al. I'm curious to know how these statements can be made with such confidence given the quite valid questions in that regard.



EDIT:

Well, the only "Bove et al (1998)" papre I found in google scholar was this one ant it doesn't contain that quote, so I don't know what to make of that.

I note that the Bove quote and also the Easterling quote deal with the Gulf of Mexico and landfalling US storms respectively, not overall storm activity or intensity.

I'm also unable to find the original souyrce of that quote from the WMO. I'd dearly like to know what's in the ellipsis - I've seen too many dishonest misquotations to take it on faith that there isn't some misrepresentation here as well.

[NBCintern]

I'm sorry but they are NOT getting stronger..........

see link above.

Thank You

(3) What have been the most intense hurricanes to strike the United States? Table 4 lists the 60 most intense major hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland 1851-2004. Hurricanes are ranked by estimating central pressure at time of landfall. Hawaiian, Puerto Rican and Virgin Island hurricanes are listed as addenda to Table 4.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Deadliest_Costliest.shtml?

The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones From 1851 to 2004
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-4
[PDF format]



THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE
UNITED STATES TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 1851 TO 2004
(AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS)
Eric S. Blake, Jerry D. Jarrell (retired), and Edward N. Rappaport
NOAA/NWS/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida

Christopher W. Landsea
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
Miami, Florida


Updated August 2005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





PREFACE


This version of the Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones extends the work of Jarrell et al. (2001) to begin with the year 1851. New updates include data from the period 1851-1899 provided by the best track reanalysis project headed by Chris Landsea, some significant revisions to the period 1900-1914 and a revised intensity of Hurricane Andrew [Landsea et al. (2004)]. A new feature for this update is a list of landfalling hurricanes during this era, updating and supplementing information provided in Neumann et al. (1999). The paper continues the methodology of Jarrell et al. (2001) in producing an estimate of the monetary loss that historical hurricanes could exact on the current property-at-risk in the same location.

During 1995, the National Meteorological Center, which included the National Hurricane Center, was re-organized into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Under NCEP, the National Hurricane Center became the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC), a name which more accurately reflects the broad scope of its responsibilities, and more formally publicizes that the majority of its operational products were for tropical weather events exclusive of hurricanes. The name “National Hurricane Center” was retained to apply to the hurricane operations desk at TPC. We will follow the convention where “NHC” refers to the previous National Hurricane Center, “TPC” refers to the current center and “TPC/NHC” refers to the hurricane operations desk of TPC.



ABSTRACT


This technical memorandum lists the deadliest and costliest tropical cyclones in the United States during 1851-2004. The compilation ranks damage, as expressed by monetary losses, in three ways: 1) contemporary estimates; 2) contemporary estimates adjusted by inflation to 2004 dollars; and 3) contemporary estimates adjusted for inflation and the growth of population and personal wealth [Pielke and Landsea, 1998] to 2004. In addition, the most intense (i.e., major1 ) hurricanes to make landfall in the United States during the period are listed. Some additional statistics on United States hurricanes of this and previous centuries, and tropical cyclones in general, are also presented.



1. INTRODUCTION
The staff of the Tropical Prediction Center receives numerous requests for statistical information on deaths and damages incurred during tropical cyclones affecting the United States. Information about their intensity is also frequently of interest. Estimates of these measures vary in the literature. Our hope is to present the best compilation of currently available estimates. In some instances, data in our lists represent revised estimates based on more complete information received following earlier publications including previous versions of this technical memorandum.

There are other frequently asked questions about hurricanes, such as: What is the average number of hurricanes per year? What year(s) had the most and least hurricanes? What hurricane had the longest life? On what date did the earliest and latest hurricane occur? What was the most intense Atlantic hurricane? What was the largest number of hurricanes in existence on the same day? When was the last time a major hurricane or any hurricane hit a given community directly2? Answers to these and several other questions are provided in Section 3.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 A major hurricane is a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (see Table 1), and is comparable to a Great Hurricane in some other publications.

2 A direct hit means experiencing the core of strong winds and storm surge of a hurricane.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




2. BACKGROUND AND DEFINITIONS


Many of the statistics in this publication depend directly on the criteria used in preparing another study, “Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations Texas to Maine"” [(Jarrell et al. (1992)]. The primary purpose of that study was to demonstrate, county by county, the low hurricane experience level of a large majority of the population. Statistics show that the largest loss of life and property occur in locations experiencing the core of a category 3 or stronger hurricane.

The Saffir/Simpson category is defined by pressure, wind, and storm surge. In nature, however, there is not a one-to-one relationship between these elements. Therefore, in practice, the TPC uses the maximum wind speed to establish the category. Operationally, however, the central pressure is often used to make a first estimate of the wind. Thereafter, available surface wind reports, aircraft reconnaissance flight-level winds (from which surface wind speed can be estimated), and dropsonde data are used to anchor the wind estimate. In post-storm analysis, the central pressure ranges of hurricanes on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale will usually agree fairly well with the wind ranges in that category. On the other hand, the storm surge is strongly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf (shoaling factor). This can change the height of the surge by a factor of two for a given central pressure and/or maximum wind.

Heavy rainfall associated with a hurricane is not one of the criteria for categorizing.

The process of assigning a category number to a hurricane is subjective, as is TPC’s estimate of a cyclone’s impact . It is made on a county by county basis. In this study, we continue to use criteria for direct hit and indirect hit described in the work by Jarrell et al. (1992):

Direct Hit Using "R" as the radius of maximum winds in a hurricane (the distance in miles from the storm's center to the circle of maximum winds around the center), all or parts of counties falling within approximately 2R to the right and R to the left of a storm's landfall point were considered to have received a direct hit. (This assumes an observer at sea looking toward the shore. If there was no landfall, the closest point of approach was used in place of the landfall point). On average, this direct hit zone extended about 50 miles along the coastline (R15 miles). Of course, some hurricanes were smaller than this and some, particularly at higher latitudes, were much larger. Cases were judged individually, and many borderline situations had to be resolved.

Indirect Hit In general, areas on either side of the direct hit zone which received wind gusts of hurricane force and/or tides of at least 4 to 5 feet above normal were considered to have had an indirect hit. The evaluation subjectively incorporated a hurricane's strength and size, and the configuration of county coastlines.

The authors acknowledge that there are limitations to this technique. For example, the effect of an indirect hit by a large category 4 hurricane can be greater than that by a direct hit from a small category 1 hurricane.

Neumann et al. (1999) gives the variation in tropical cyclone frequency along the United States coastline for all tropical storms and hurricanes, hurricanes only, and major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). In that study, counts were made of the number of tropical cyclones or hurricanes whose center passed within 75 nautical miles of the coastal location. This counting method thus includes near-misses, as well as direct and indirect hits as defined above.

Statistics on tropical storm and hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) can be found in Neumann et al. (1999). A stratification of hurricanes by category which have affected coastal counties of the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean can be found in Jarrell et al. (1992). Additional information about the impact of hurricanes can be found in annual hurricane season articles in Monthly Weather Review , Storm Data and Mariner’s Weather Log.




3. DISCUSSION


Part I


The remainder of this memorandum provides answers to some of the most frequently asked questions about the characteristics and impacts of the tropical cyclones to affect the United States from 1851-2004.

(1) What have been the deadliest tropical cyclones in the United States? Table 2 lists the tropical cyclones that have caused at least 25 deaths on the U.S. mainland 1851-2004. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was responsible for at least 8000 deaths and remains #1 on the list. The death total from the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 has been revised to include work from Pfost (2003) to reflect that the hurricane killed at least 2500 people. Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 caused torrential flooding in the Houston area and is the most significant addition since 2000 to the list. However two powerful hurricanes that struck in 1893 are now #3 and #4 on the list. A tropical storm which affected southern California in 1939 and the deadliest Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands hurricanes are listed as addenda.

(2) What have been the costliest tropical cyclones in the United States? Table 3a lists the 30 costliest tropical cyclones to strike the U.S. mainland 1900-2004. No monetary estimates are available before 1900 and figures are not adjusted for inflation. The 2004 hurricane season had the second, third, fourth and sixth most-costly systems to strike the United States. Table 3b re orders the first list and adds several other hurricanes after adjusting to 2004 dollars3. Hawaiian, Puerto Rican and Virgin Island tropical cyclones are listed as addenda to Tables 3a and 3b. Table 3b also lists the thirty costliest hurricanes 1900-2004 assuming that a hurricane having the same track, size and intensity as noted in the historical record would strike the area with today’s population totals and property-at-risk. See Pielke and Landsea (1998).

(3) What have been the most intense hurricanes to strike the United States? Table 4 lists the 60 most intense major hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland 1851-2004. Hurricanes are ranked by estimating central pressure at time of landfall. Hawaiian, Puerto Rican and Virgin Island hurricanes are listed as addenda to Table 4.

A look at the lists of deadliest and costliest hurricanes reveals several striking facts: (1) Fourteen out of the fifteen deadliest hurricanes were the equivalent of a category 3 or higher. (2) Large death totals were primarily a result of the 10 feet or greater rise of the ocean (storm surge) associated with many of these major hurricanes. About three-quarters of the deadliest hurricanes were major hurricanes. (3) A large portion of the damage in four of the fifteen costliest tropical cyclones (Table 3a) resulted from inland flooding caused by torrential rain. (4) One-third of the deadliest hurricanes were category four or higher, but only one-seventh of the costliest hurricanes met this criterion. (5) Only five of the deadliest hurricanes occurred during the past twenty five years in contrast to three-quarters of the costliest hurricanes (this drops to one-half after adjustment for inflation and about one-third after adjustment for inflation, population, and personal wealth).

Addenda to tables 2 through 4 include some noteworthy storms from the U.S. West coast and the Hawaiian Islands, as well as in the U. S. Caribbean Islands. The rank represents the position they would occupy if included in the main table.

Table 5 summarizes the direct hits on the U. S. mainland since 1851. The data indicate that an average of 3 major hurricanes every 5 years made landfall somewhere along the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast. (All categories combined average about 5 hurricanes every 3 years.) Note that not all areas of the U.S. were settled before 1900 and there could be substantial gaps in landfall data coverage, especially in South Florida. For more details see Landsea et al. (2004b).

One of the greatest concerns of the National Weather Service's (NWS) hurricane preparedness officials is that the statistics in Table 2 will mislead people into thinking that no more large loss of life will occur in a hurricane because of our advanced technology. Max Mayfield, spokesman for the NWS hurricane warning service and Director of TPC, as well as former NHC Directors, have repeatedly emphasized the great danger of a catastrophic loss of life in a future hurricane if proper preparedness plans for vulnerable areas are not formulated, maintained and executed.

The study by Jarrell et al. (1992) used 1990 census data to show that 85% of U.S. coastal residents from Texas to Maine had never experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane. This risk is higher today as an estimated 50 million residents have moved to coastal sections during the past twenty five years. The experience gained through the landfall of Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Andrew and Hugo has not lessened an ever-growing concern brought by the continued increase in coastal populations.

Table 6, which lists hurricanes by decades since 1851, shows that during the forty year period 1961 2000 both the number and intensity of landfalling U.S. hurricanes decreased sharply! Based on 1901 1960 statistics, the expected number of hurricanes and major hurricanes during the period 1961 2000 was 75 and 28, respectively. But, in fact, only 55 (or 74%) of the expected number of hurricanes struck the U.S. with only 20 major hurricanes or 71% of that expected number. Even the very active late 1990s showed below average landfall frequencies. It could be noted that of the most recent four decades, only the 70's and 80's were significantly below normal in terms of overall tropical cyclone activity.

During the past 35 years, the United States has experienced three Category 4 or stronger hurricanes: Charley in 2004, Andrew of 1992 and Hugo of 1989. However, on the average, a category 4 or stronger hurricane strikes the United States once every 6 or 7 years. This suggests we have seen fewer exceptionally strong hurricanes than an expected 35 year average of about 5 or 6. Fewer hurricanes do not necessarily mean a lesser threat of disaster, however. Records for the most intense U.S. hurricane in 1935, and the costliest, Andrew in 1992, occurred in years which had much below-average hurricane activity.


X-Y-NO, according to this research, Ken is right. Cane intensity have been on the decrease.

[kenl01]

Last two years where active yes, but overall intensity has been decreasing over the long term. The current active years since 2004 are just part of a warm cycle in the Atlantic relating to the Atlantic mult-decadal oscillation.

Less Hurricanes in last 50 years than during 1850-1950 ??

So where is the increase in Hurricanes? The chart below (derived from data at the National Hurricane Center site) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml#history shows the number of Hurricanes making landfall in the United States in each of the three 50-year periods from 1850 to 2000.

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?id=8892

That chart is of landfalls on the continental US, not of overall "mean intensity".

And if you add in 2005, with its 5 landfalling hurricanes, 3 of them majors, then this decade is running ahead of the 40's.

Looking carefully at the chart, far more hurricanes hit the US between 1850 and 1900. The number of US landfalling hurricanes actually went down starting about 1900, and noticeably so starting about 1950.

There's quite a number of Cat 1s listed in those early years, but no particularly striking trend in intense storms. So I'm inclined to bring up the data quality issue again - are we confident that some of those early Cat 1s weren't really TS srength?

The 1940s were rather busy, the 70s the quietest, and the 1990s pretty close to the long-term average. A simple linear fit suggests a decrease over time. This is a result echoed by Easterling, et al (2000), who said, 'the number of intense and landfalling Atlantic hurricanes has declined.' In the Gulf of Mexico there is 'no sign of an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity,' according to Bove, et al (1998). For the North Atlantic as a whole, according to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, 'Reliable data … since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased.'"

OK, now that might be getting closer to supporting your claim, assuming the "Bove et al" quote isn't out of context. I'll look for that paper.

I would point out that, being published in 1998, it neccesarily omits the recent activity.

The broader measure of major hurricane formation (Category 3 or above) shows that such formation was more impressive during the peak of the last warm cycle than at present. During the 1945-55 period, 42/115 (37%) tropical cyclones grew into major hurricanes. So far, 1995-2005 (through Rita) has seen 43/156 (28%) tropical cyclones grow into major hurricanes. Thus, the 1945-1955 period saw tropical cyclones grow into major hurricanes approximately 32% more often than the current period.

Again, I have to raise the data quality issue, which skeptics have quite validly raised with regard to the recent work by Webster et al. and Emmanuel et al. I'm curious to know how these statements can be made with such confidence given the quite valid questions in that regard.

XYNO,

The charts clearly indicate over the long term that overall hurricane intensity and US landfall frequencies have decreased in the long term, period. The charts derived fron the NHC do not lie. What happened to all the cat 5 hurricanes at landfall ?? There seem to be a growing trend of tropical cyclones weakening before US landfall in the last 10 years now.

End of story.

Have a nice day.................

[feederband]

:D How about " Hurricanes gone wild???"

Yeah but I don't like to look at Alberto's naked swirls...I will wait for Debby..

[SouthFloridawx]

I should have known this would have turned out as a GW thread.