Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[boca]

Are these waves suppossed to look this way in June or our we just sensitive to everything out there because of the 2005 season just wondering because these waves look robust.

[Ivan14]

This maybe a stupid question but does this thing have a chance to develop?

[boca]

Not stupid, but this time of year out there probably not due to the sea surface temps. You never know though.

[canegrl04]

Typically,we don't see these kind of "robust" waves untill August. Waters are usually not warm enough in June ,and there is usually still too much shear this early

[Ivan14]

I wonder if any of the waves will make it into the Caribbean?

[windycity]

waves normally do not look this impressive in the early part of June, but perhaps there are other things going on that we dont fully understand. Look at last year, in many ways it was puzzling, but later we all could see how perfect the conditions were. Who would think the home brewed storms would turn out to be so deadly?

[SouthFloridawx]

6Z GFS 6-13-06


6Z GFS track 6-13-06

[bvigal]

This wave (33W) looks good. Convection decreased now per usual cycle. But, if you go back to page 3 of this thread and look at that quikscat very carefully... uncontaminated wind measurement of 45kts, undoubtedly some circulation there. My guess is, if the afternoon quikscat pass shows anything similar, and if at least some precipitation persists, we will have an invest by tonight. The TWD's reflect that NHC is busy with Alberto, as they should be. This wave is still way out in the Atlantic, days from anywhere.

[bvigal]

SouthFloridawx... <GULP> that gave me a pucker!!! Don't like that track one bit!

[SouthFloridawx]

SouthFloridawx... <GULP> that gave me a pucker!!! Don't like that track one bit!

Me too but, it's way to early to speculate anything as it is pretty much the only model showing anything right now. We'll see what happens in the next few days.

[terstorm1012]

Is it just me or do the models seem to make an awful lot of "noise" when they think something will develop...

just thinking back to Alberto and how the models kept putting something where he eventually formed for weeks. I'm most interested in why they do that.

[bvigal]

Me too but, it's way to early to speculate anything as it is pretty much the only model showing anything right now. We'll see what happens in the next few days.

That GFS has been so accurate lately, at least for this part of the Atlantic. The others may be lagging. Will be interesting to see the 18z run.

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical waves in the Central and Eastern Atlantic are fairly strong for this time of year, but this was predicted a few days ago by the analysts at TAFB. There is this pattern that has set up that has a large upper-level anticyclone located far north for this time of year over the Eastern Atlantic. This has created favorable upper-level easterlies over that area. Also, the surface ridge is fairly far south for this time of year in that area. Having said that, there are a few things against these systems.

First, the SSTs are not in their optimum state. I've noticed over the years that you need at least 82-83* SSTs over the Eastern Atlantic to get any remote chance of development. Sometimes 80-81* is not enough and that is because the atmosphere over that area is still rather stable. Typically, it doesn't become unstable enough until August.

Second, the moisture levels over the area are not favorable. This is very common for the early season (June-July) and is caused by dusty outbreaks of the Saharan Air Layer or due to the southern extent of the Azores High pumping dry air from the cooler North Atlantic. If you look at a current water vapor loop, you will notice a huge surge of dry air just to the north of these waves. This does not bode well for development.

The trade winds are also fairly strong in the Eastern Atlantic and that makes tropical waves race westward. As you can see, the eastern tropical wave is flashing its way toward the Central Atlantic wave. This diminishes the chances of the eastern wave doing much. Watch it merge with the ITCZ related cloudiness to its west or fizzle out in no time.

The Central Atlantic wave is the one with better conditions for the time being. And I said for the time being... In a couple of days, the trough north of Puerto Rico is forecast to dive SE. You know what that means? Strong upper-level winds are in its future.

So, with all these factors going against these waves, the best thing to do is to remain calm and just monitor the situation. The season is still young and eventually we will receive our share of Cape Verde systems once August rolls around.

*I would watch the tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles. That one currently is experiencing the direct effects of a trough to its north. This trough is enhancing the cloudiness associated with it. So, expect torrential, but short-lived rainfall across the islands. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become somewhat more favorable as it enters the Central and Western Caribbean in a few days. If it remains as well-defined as it is, we might have something to keep a close eye on.

[cycloneye]

Thanks Hyperstorm as always for that analysis of the situation in the Atlantic.FYI=This theme of Atlantic Waves,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread will be all along the season so you can post your comments and I know that I will be locking many at 25 pages this season.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/prvs.html

I was just looking at the loop above and it seems the northernside of the wave is experiencing shear, but the southernside doesn't seem to be experiencing shear. How is the environment down the road?

[HurricaneHunter914]

When you say "Enviorment down the road" do you mean "What are the conditions once it gets into the Carib" or "How are the conditions now"?

[HURAKAN]

When you say "Enviorment down the road" do you mean "What are the conditions once it gets into the Carib" or "How are the conditions now"?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well I saw a shear map earlier ago and the shear right now is pretty low in the Caribbean. Water temps as you obviously know are HOT! Though its now really moist in the caribbean right now still some dry air. Too bad S2K right now is the only weather website working at the moment on my computer.

[skysummit]

I just sent this pic out to my email list at work to remind them they better get prepared NOW.....don't wait till we have a storm at our doors. Let Alberto be a wake up call that the season has begun.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Right now the Lesser Antilles wave is growing stronger while the Central Atlantic wave has lost some convection, but look at the circulation in it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

If you look at all these links you'll get a good idea on what the conditions are like now.