What is going on with the models? Everything shifting west?

[mvtrucking]

before reading the thread i was thinking, this guy is obviously not from where the storm is probably going to go, he is probably from north and west of it. Even if it did hit where you wanted it to (New Orleans), all the rain is on the right side.

wow... found one here too.... Wonder why I have less than 50 posts in almost 2 years? Has a lot to do with immature replies...

For your information, I live in the new orleans metro area, and really DON'T want anything above a TS here.. I happened to have a wife and 3 children that I love and don't want them to go through anything like they did last year..

Having said that.. Would it satify you to know that I have a sister and brother in law that live in Largo, Fl... Approximately 2 miles from the coast?

Don't sweat it HC. I'm sure most know where you are coming from..

[soonertwister]

I'm just going with history here. Twenty-four hours ago this storm was either being written off as a goner, or else some people were insisting on landfall from NOLA to Houston.

Whatever those might have been, this time yesterday the storm was not all that far north of the Yucatan, and moving slowly while badly sheared. Now the low center looks to be far north and east of NHC forecast estimates, and accelerating toward landfall. Given the trendline and the last 24 hours of movement, this storm will cross the shore before 12 EDT tonight. I know where the low center is. I also predicted where it would be a few hours ago, and no one took me seriously. When the dominant center suddenly is 60-plus miles ENE of the suspected center, lots of things change, including predicted arrival times. At the previous rates of movement, that cuts anywhere from 8-12 hours off previous estimated arrival time. Given the trend, I favor something at least toward the latter, and probably even earlier.

[vacanechaser]

I'm just going with history here. Twenty-four hours ago this storm was either being written off as a goner, or else some people were insisting on landfall from NOLA to Houston.

Whatever those might have been, this time yesterday the storm was not all that far north of the Yucatan, and moving slowly while badly sheared. Now the low center looks to be far north and east of NHC forecast estimates, and accelerating toward landfall. Given the trendline and the last 24 hours of movement, this storm will cross the shore before 12 EDT tonight. I know where the low center is. I also predicted where it would be a few hours ago, and no one took me seriously. When the dominant center suddenly is 60-plus miles ENE of the suspected center, lots of things change, including predicted arrival times. At the previous rates of movement, that cuts anywhere from 8-12 hours off previous estimated arrival time. Given the trend, I favor something at least toward the latter, and probably even earlier.

well, it is 6am and the center is still off shore... like i said, the mid and upper level center would be on shore... not the llc... still about 60 miles away....thats the center that counts to me... of course... with it still over the water, it could always burp up new convection....

reminds me of henri in 2003

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[caneman]

I'm just going with history here. Twenty-four hours ago this storm was either being written off as a goner, or else some people were insisting on landfall from NOLA to Houston.

Whatever those might have been, this time yesterday the storm was not all that far north of the Yucatan, and moving slowly while badly sheared. Now the low center looks to be far north and east of NHC forecast estimates, and accelerating toward landfall. Given the trendline and the last 24 hours of movement, this storm will cross the shore before 12 EDT tonight. I know where the low center is. I also predicted where it would be a few hours ago, and no one took me seriously. When the dominant center suddenly is 60-plus miles ENE of the suspected center, lots of things change, including predicted arrival times. At the previous rates of movement, that cuts anywhere from 8-12 hours off previous estimated arrival time. Given the trend, I favor something at least toward the latter, and probably even earlier.

well, it is 6am and the center is still off shore... like i said, the mid and upper level center would be on shore... not the llc... still about 60 miles away....thats the center that counts to me... of course... with it still over the water, it could always burp up new convection....

reminds me of henri in 2003

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yes but much stronger than Henri. Henri went over my house and I slept right thru it. This one had some TSstong winds and lots of rain.

[Stormsfury]

I posted some thoughts on the westward shift in this thread in Tropical Analysis ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85673