Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 68-KT WINDS AT
700 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT JUST NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
FLORDIA... WHICH WAS IN AN AREA OF 64+ KT DOPPELR VELOCITY DATA
FROM TAMPA BAY AND TALLAHASSEE. THESE WIND REPORTS WERE IN AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH REFLECTIVITIES OF AT LEAST 40 DBZ...SO
USING A 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR SEEMS APPROPROPRIATE...WHICH
MEANS THAT ALBERTO REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB IS BASED ON EARLIER RECON DROPSONDE REPORT OF
996 MB WITH A 15-KT SURFACE WIND...AND NOAA BUOY 42036...LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... REPORTING 997.2 MB PRESSURE AT 13/02Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 040/09 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS
EVENING INDICATE A NARROW 850-500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD
AHEAD OF ALBERTO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF ITS CURRENT
MOTION...BEFORE THE BEING TURNED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND MISSOURI VALLEYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE
RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTRL
FATER THAN THE PREVIOSU ADVISORY AFTER ALBERTO BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY FORCE THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINA COASTS BY 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN AN OVER WATER
EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA.

SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY AROUND 79-80F AHEAD OF ALBERTO... THE 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA INDICATES THAT THE ATMOPSHERE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AHS
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING. SINCE THERE IS
AVAILABLE INSTABOLILY TO SUPPORT THE REGENERATION OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING... A FORECAST OF
ALBERTO POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
APPEARS TO STILL BE IN ORDER.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
ALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN
THIS AREA. IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.4N 84.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 83.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 31.1N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 33.1N 80.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 77.2W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z 39.5N 68.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0000Z 44.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/0000Z 49.5N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[brunota2003]

there is only about 5 spellign errors in there...dont they have spell chekc??? I'm just messing...very nice and indepth discussion, as always seems to be the case...go Stewart!!! So, instability is the reason why? interesting...

[Coredesat]

...AND IS A LITTRL
FATER THAN THE PREVIOSU ADVISORY AFTER ALBERTO BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL.

SINCE THERE IS
AVAILABLE INSTABOLILY TO SUPPORT THE REGENERATION OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...

It appears he was in a rush to get this written. I guess I'll take it, though.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 12, 2006



an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured 68-kt winds at
700 mb in the northeast quadrant just northwest of Cedar Key
flordia... which was in an area of 64+ kt doppelr velocity data
from Tampa Bay and Tallahassee. These wind reports were in areas of
convective banding with reflectivities of at least 40 dbz...so
using a 90 percent reduction factor seems appropropriate...which
means that Alberto remains a 60-kt tropical storm. The central
pressure of 995 mb is based on earlier recon dropsonde report of
996 mb with a 15-kt surface wind...and NOAA buoy 42036...located
northeast of the center... reporting 997.2 mb pressure at 13/02z.
The initial motion estimate remains 040/09 kt. Upper-air data this
evening indicate a narrow 850-500 mb ridge extending northwestward
ahead of Alberto across southeastern Georgia. This feature is
expected to nudge the cyclone a little to the left of its current
motion...before the being turned back to the northeast ahead of a
digging mid-level shortwave currently located across the Tennessee
and Missouri valleys. The official forecast track remains near the
right or east side of the model guidance envelope...and is a littrl
fater than the previosu advisory after Alberto becomes
extratropical. It is possible that the increasing northwesterly
mid-level flow may force the extratropical low closer to the
Carolina coasts by 48 hours...resulting in an over water
extratropical gale area.
Some shallow convection has been developing around the low-level
center during the past few hours. While Gulf water temperatures are
only around 79-80f ahead of Alberto... the 00z upper-air sounding
from Tampa indicates that the atmopshere ahead of the cyclone ahs
become more unstable since 12z this morning. Since there is
available instabolily to support the regeneration of significant
convection later tonight and Tuesday morning... a forecast of
Alberto possibly reaching hurricane strength before landfall
appears to still be in order.

In addition to heavy rains...the main hazard associated with
Alberto will likely be storm surge flooding...which could be 8-10
feet above normal tide levels even for a strong tropical storm in
this area. It is...however...impossible to specify exactly which
locations will experience the greatest storm surge flooding because
this will depend upon the precise track and wind field near
landfall.

Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/0300z 28.4n 84.6w 60 kt
12hr VT 13/1200z 29.5n 83.7w 65 kt
24hr VT 14/0000z 31.1n 82.5w 40 kt...inland
36hr VT 14/1200z 33.1n 80.6w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 15/0000z 35.0n 77.2w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 16/0000z 39.5n 68.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/0000z 44.0n 60.0w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 18/0000z 49.5n 50.0w 40 kt...extratropical

[Cyclenall]

That discussion had many spelling errors in there. Wow, this is from the NHC. No spell check for the NHC!!!!

[Grease Monkey]

WHILE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY AROUND 79-80F AHEAD OF ALBERTO...

That's what I thought. I remember early someone was telling me that the temps in the NE gulf were around 83.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall as a hurricane or not, it has been already am active beginning to the hurricane season. I will go to sleep and wake up tomorrow for landfall!!!

[Thunder44]

The 995mb pressure in the advisory may be right. Buoy 42036 at this hour is reporting a pressure of 29.41" or about 996mb. Winds are still about 19.4kts sustained gusts up to 23kts, so the pressure in center maybe down to 994mb now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[CrazyC83]

It's just a harbinger for things to come...hang on tight, we're in for a wild ride!

[lester]

WTNT31 KNHC 130546
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD... AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AT THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...SOME POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR RESTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FELT ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEE BAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.
TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA... AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N...84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD... AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AT THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...SOME POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR RESTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FELT ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEE BAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.
TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA... AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N...84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

[JonathanBelles]

hhey brent long time no talk

[CrazyC83]

He sounds surprised by the words in the headline...

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 130856
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...WEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RESTRENGTHENING...
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IS DECREASING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI


$$

[Coredesat]

Extratropical in 24 hours, maybe less.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 130838
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

WITH A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
ALBERTO'S CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE EVAPORATING. THERE
IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CYCLONE IS TAKING ON
A LESS-THAN-TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WIND
FIELD HAS ALSO BROADENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
WERE 64 KT...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION...WOULD
CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0Z
DID SHOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/8. AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BEFORE
ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE
WESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72
HOURS...AND IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SINCE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO WILL DECAY ONLY SLOWLY AFTER
LANDFALL...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE PRESENT WARNING AREA ON THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.2N 84.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.3N 83.4W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/1800Z 34.4N 78.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 43.5N 62.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0600Z 50.5N 48.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/0600Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Nimbus]

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on June 13, 2006



with a slug of dry air overtaking the center of circulation...
Alberto's chances of becoming a hurricane are evaporating. There
is no deep convection near the center and the cyclone is taking on
a less-than-tropical appearance on satellite imagery. The wind
field has also broadened considerably over the past 12 hours or so.
Peak 850 mb flight-level winds from the last reconnaissance flight
were 64 kt...which given the relative lack of convection...would
correspond to about 50 kt at the surface. A Quikscat pass near 0z
did show winds as high as 55 kt...which will be the advisory
intensity for this package. Little change in strength is expected
prior to landfall.
The initial motion is 035/8. As a mid-latitude short wave moves
eastward off the Atlantic Seaboard...building heights behind the
trough are expected to nudge the track a little to the left before
Alberto gets picked up by the next short wave. Model guidance is
in good agreement in keeping the center over land for much of the
next 36 hours. After that...Alberto should accelerate in the
westerlies as an extratropical cyclone. The official forecast is
significantly faster than the previous advisory after 72
hours...and is in rough agreement with the dynamical model
consensus.
Since the broad circulation of Alberto will decay only slowly after
landfall...there is some possibility of onshore winds to tropical
storm force north of the present warning area on the Atlantic
coast. The Tropical Storm Warning has therefore been extended
northward.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/0900z 29.2n 84.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 13/1800z 30.3n 83.4w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 14/0600z 32.1n 81.9w 35 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 14/1800z 34.4n 78.9w 30 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 15/0600z 37.0n 73.5w 35 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 16/0600z 43.5n 62.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/0600z 50.5n 48.5w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 18/0600z 55.0n 25.0w 40 kt...extratropical


$$

[cycloneye]

991
WTNT31 KNHC 131149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO NEARING THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS NOW ONLY A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO WILL
BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...29.5 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[kenl01]

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on June 13, 2006



There
is no deep convection near the center and the cyclone is taking on
a less-than-tropical appearance on satellite imagery.
$$

Sort of what I expected due to the combination of increasing shear before landfall and cooler water.

Hopefully everybody in FL and the SE will get a decent rain event from this system.

The northeast Gulf of Mexico is notorious for seeing tropical systems weaken before landfall and Alberto was no exception. Several factors contributed to the Alberto weakening before landfall. When Alberto was at peak intensity, it was over an area of the Gulf of Mexico where the waters were very warm due primarily due to the loop current. In addition, the amount of wind shear in the atmosphere had lessened some. However, once Alberto moved northeastward in the Gulf of Mexico, it moved into an area where the water temperatures were lower. In addition, wind shear was greater. Lastly, a punch of dry air came in from the west right into the center of circulation and shot the chances of any showers and thunderstorms existing in that area.


Alberto will join a growing list of named tropical systems to weaken before landfall before moving into the northeast Gulf of Mexico area of Florida. Gordon in September of 2000 was a hurricane at one point but by the time it came ashore near Cedar Key it was only a tropical storm. In August of 2004, Bonnie came ashore at Saint Vincent Island as a minimal tropical storm. Even Hurricane Earl back in September of 1998 was showing signs of becoming extra-tropical as it approached the coast near Panama City. Although each of these storms had different factors influencing them, a southwest steering flow is necessary in the atmosphere for a storm to get drawn into this part of the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, this also induces shear on a system. In addition, the cooler shelf waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico do not have nearly the heat content that is found farther out in the Gulf of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 131442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BAYPORT
NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. ALL WARNINGS
SOUTH OF BAYPORT ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BAYPORT TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS
JUST OFFSHORE OF KEATON BEACH FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER ALL OF GEORGIA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE....AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.8 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

I expected weakening before landfall myself as well. The water is cooler in the Big Bend area as opposed to the Loop Current, and the shear remains too high to negate such.