Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[wxmann_91]

Are you sure it is really June and not August. Those waves are impressive looking.

It's scary right seeing these waves like this in early June.It's an early sign that the Cape Verde season will be more active than it was in 2005.

What's going to be more disturbing is when those systems reach the mid-80's waters of the Caribbean and can march into the Yucatan channel.

I fear one or two this summer or early fall will make it again.

It's not that abnormal. Atmospheric conditions can change before August.

Boca, I'm not too sure what the jagged line on the sfc analysis is. I'm thinking it could be a trof axis or a dying front. I think NHC would have a legend for that in the same place you found the map.

[Cyclenall]

here's a IR pic of the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles...

It looks better today after it became sick at 5:00 am. What's the next step for it to become a TD? My knowledge about that is limited but a LLC needs to form and reach sea-level?? I don't know the steps but does this thing have a low yet?

[abajan]

We had some pretty good rolls of thunder, both yesterday and more so today. Even though June is the start of our rainy season in Barbados, it's kind of unusual for the island to get thunder so early. From my observations over the years, we normally get thunderstorms between late July and early November.

I don't know if this is any indication of an early Cape Verde season or not but I thought it was worth mentioning.

[Cyclenall]

Lots of blobs out there....

[Rainband]

My fear is that these waves will work into the west Carrib. or gulf during a period of good-development conditions. If this happens, then these things could explode in hours. If this happens, than a minimal hurricane will be a very possible threat.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that I expect at least one more named storm before June 30th, and I also expect the track to be west of Florida.

What a shock, but seriously. What data do you have to explain this theory??

[WxGuy1]

What's that jagged line running from the Atlantic across Southern Florida to out in the Gulf?

Boca look at it again.

I dont know what it is either, can that get stronger overnight and create thunderstorms for SFLA?

That "jagged" line is the ridge axis... It denotes the axis of highest surface pressures. It's the opposite of a trough axis, which is denote by a dashed line. High surface pressures do not bode well for tropical activity.

[wxwatcher91]

the eastern wave has somewhat of a circulation going:



shear is low over the eastern wave as well


as for the western wave, it is looking better than it has in a while however shear is on the increase (see pic above)

[cycloneye]

For being June looking at these pics is scary as we think ahead towards August and September.

[CHRISTY]

i agree things are looking quite scary for what is yet to come in august,september and october....this season has a very scary feeling to it.iam sure alot of people feel the same way.

[CHRISTY]

and by the way the wave in the location of 9N and 42W is looking very good this morning!Iam very surprised to see these waves looking the way the are now its almost like if it was august or something.needs to be watched!

[NCHurricane]

For being June looking at these pics is scary as we think ahead towards August and September.

We had no CV season last year, let's hope this year doesn't make up for it. With the analog years that are being used to compare to this year, I really don't want any CV storms.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

[DESTRUCTION5]

For being June looking at these pics is scary as we think ahead towards August and September.

I agree Luis..This is amazing for this time of year...I mean there are 3 potential waves out there and its 6/13!! development or no development...They are very very impressive..

[bvigal]

and by the way the wave in the location of 9N and 42W is looking very good this morning!Iam very surprised to see these waves looking the way the are now its almost like if it was august or something.needs to be watched!

That's interesting Christy, your estimate of 42W. Even though most of the convection is farther east, it looks in that vicinity to me, too. In fact, I think I even remember reading something that they might relocate it further west - it must have been 2am TWD. Maybe it was because of that inverted-V signature on satellite. 8amTWD puts it at 33W, probably after seeing that quikscat! wxwatcher91 - thanks for posting it - wow!!

[Patrick99]

Those waves look great....something to watch, certainly. More interesting than Alberto....though admittedly that's not saying much.

[Weatherfreak14]

Yea this is very intersting to watch

[canegrl04]

I hate to say it,but with cane season starting early again,and the tropical waves beginning to crank out,I think we have a repeat of 2005 going.But I don't believe we will start the Greek alphabet

[Ivan14]

So much for the late start some people were hoping for.

[WindRunner]

I'm not sure if I'm seeing the same as what you guys are seeing, so is this an accurate presentation?



Circulation around 34W, and wave axis around 44W.

[bvigal]

Windrunner, that's how I was seeing it. In fact, was so impressed with that sat signature, made a movie:

click here

But it was prob just a trick of the clouds. Tough to argue with that quikscat image!

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W.


WindRunner the wave axis is at 33w according to the 8 AM discussion.