Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[B'hamBlazer]

The one near 35 and 10 is very impressive looking to me... especially for this time of year, but really any time of year for that matter. Too early to forecast exact strength, but I can tell you this... I'll be surprised if it's not hurricane-strength.

What??????????????????????????????????

Are you serious? or just trolling?

I dont mean hurricane strength right NOW... I mean I'll be surprised if it doesn't become hurricane-strength!

So your saying it will become a hurricane one day? Dude, this is a wave not a Tropical Storm. I understand how we like to jump at things early but really, it could do anything and guessing doesn't work for me or anyone else. The models is a good place to start getting ideas for these systems. I haven't checked them yet.

If you havent checked them yet, dont talk to me. Look at the models and the other data (SST, convective blowup, etc) and you'll see why it has a very strong potential.

[Hyperstorm]

The one near 35 and 10 is very impressive looking to me... especially for this time of year, but really any time of year for that matter. Too early to forecast exact strength, but I can tell you this... I'll be surprised if it's not hurricane-strength.

What??????????????????????????????????

Are you serious? or just trolling?

I dont mean hurricane strength right NOW... I mean I'll be surprised if it doesn't become hurricane-strength!

So your saying it will become a hurricane one day? Dude, this is a wave not a Tropical Storm. I understand how we like to jump at things early but really, it could do anything and guessing doesn't work for me or anyone else. The models is a good place to start getting ideas for these systems. I haven't checked them yet.

If you havent checked them yet, dont talk to me. Look at the models and the other data (SST, convective blowup, etc) and you'll see why it has a very strong potential.

And have YOU checked the environmental conditions? The upper-level winds? The location? The majority of the computer models? The strength of the trade winds and the Azores High?

I'm telling you...It's only mid-June and we're already seeing people get too hyper over things that don't have good potential, especially over areas that are not favored climatologically.

*Very important rule of thumb in the tropics...Wait 24 hours to see if convection persists. If it doesn't, that will tell you: No development.

[cycloneye]

Ok,let's get rid of the back and forth thing and discuss about the Atlantic waves.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that these waves have little chance in the open Atlantic in June, but once they get into the Carrib...it is a different story.

[CHRISTY]

guys this wave in the eastern atlantic is looking impressive....its actually holding together.its gonna be interesting to see what happens with this wave in the coming days.

[cycloneye]

guys this wave in the eastern atlantic is looking impressive....its actually holding together.its gonna be interesting to see what happens with this wave in the coming days.

Let's remember that persistance is key to see if a wave develops or not.If that wave now with plenty of convection in the Eastern Atlantic has that for more than 24 hours then a second look is in order.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My fear is that these waves will work into the west Carrib. or gulf during a period of good-development conditions. If this happens, then these things could explode in hours. If this happens, than a minimal hurricane will be a very possible threat.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that I expect at least one more named storm before June 30th, and I also expect the track to be west of Florida.

[boca]

That wave in the Central Atlantic doesn't know its only June 12th. That wave in that area looks like Late July early August if you get what I'm saying.

[CHRISTY]

guys this wave in the eastern atlantic is looking impressive....its actually holding together.its gonna be interesting to see what happens with this wave in the coming days.

Let's remember that persistance is key to see if a wave develops or not.If that wave now with plenty of convection in the Eastern Atlantic has that for more than 24 hours then a second look is in order.

u are 100% percent right persistence is the key here....but my point is some of these waves are not going POOF anymore there actually trying to make it across.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 72 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[boca]

What's that jagged line running from the Atlantic across Southern Florida to out in the Gulf?

[SouthFloridawx]

What's that jagged line running from the Atlantic across Southern Florida to out in the Gulf?

Boca look at it again.

[Bgator]

What's that jagged line running from the Atlantic across Southern Florida to out in the Gulf?

Boca look at it again.

I dont know what it is either, can that get stronger overnight and create thunderstorms for SFLA?

[SouthFloridawx]

What's that jagged line running from the Atlantic across Southern Florida to out in the Gulf?

Boca look at it again.

I dont know what it is either, can that get stronger overnight and create thunderstorms for SFLA?

It is a line depicting equal areas of pressure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What's that jagged line running from the Atlantic across Southern Florida to out in the Gulf?

Boca look at it again.

I dont know what it is either, can that get stronger overnight and create thunderstorms for SFLA?

I don't know either, and this is 3 days out, so it may not be exact. One thing I do notice, however, is the ridge building back into the Gulf. This would steer any developing storm into the western gulf.

[boca]

Those are isobars I'm talking about that jagged line going east /west from the Atlantic thru the Gulf.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Theirs a low pressure associated with the wave at 35°W. I know its June but lets keep an eye on it, after last year nothing surprises me.

[CHRISTY]

[SouthFloridawx]

gfs is again bringing that area of "low pressure" from africa out into the atlantic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

here's a IR pic of the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles...

looking better tonight.