Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[CrazyC83]

I'd be bringing it down to 60 mph at 11:00 with the data we've got...

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'm thinking, simply basted on continuity of trends, they'll stick with 65... but I seriously doubt it'll get much, if any higher than that.

A2K

[StormScanWx]

I'm thinking, simply basted on continuity of trends, they'll stick with 65... but I seriously doubt it'll get much, if any higher than that.

A2K

I agree, here is my ideas:

Weakening--75%
Same--20%
Strengthening--5%

[WeatherDudeB]

I wont be suprised no matter what happens with this system.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0300Z TUE JUN 13 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD... AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AT THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 84.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 175SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 84.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 84.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 83.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.1N 82.5W...INLAND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.1N 80.6W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 77.2W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.5N 68.0W...OVER WATER EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 44.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 49.5N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 3day?large

[SouthFloridawx]

Still 70 mph...

[CrazyC83]

Wow, they held the winds and lowered the pressure to 995, even though there is no evidence of such...the Recon must be too late for such.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wait for the discussion...

[Thunder44]

They are still forecasting a hurricane before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC may be confident of another diurnal maximum.

[Coredesat]

They're also forecasting extratropical transition much sooner.

[ronjon]

Pressure dropped 2 mb since 5 PM with an exposed LLC. This is some storm.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO CHURN TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD... AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AT THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL... ALBERTO STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS... DOPPLER RADAR DATA... AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEEE BAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.
TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA... AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[WindRunner]

Wow, they held the winds and lowered the pressure to 995, even though there is no evidence of such...the Recon must be too late for such.

Probably, and they might have knocked it down another mb to compensate for the wind (signifying that they missed the exact center) on the first eye drop.

[TrekkerCC]

Wow, they held the winds and lowered the pressure to 995, even though there is no evidence of such...the Recon must be too late for such.

Probably, and they might have knocked it down another mb to compensate for the wind (signifying that they missed the exact center) on the first eye drop.

They missed the center with the second dropsonde as well. You can see that at the surface splashdown, there was about 8kts of wind. It is likely that the storm is still 995mb/996mb or so (not 998mb).

[brunota2003]

The discussion is going to be interesting as guess who should be writing it? Stewart!!! He is normally very indepth and may provide us to why its still at 70 MPH and forecasted to become a cane...etc...

[Derek Ortt]

you only lower 1mb for every 10KT of surface wind. I have no clue where 995 came from, unless recon extrapolated that value

[Coredesat]

I'm really interested in seeing what Stacy Stewart has to say about this. I seriously doubt Alberto will be getting any stronger, what with its center totally exposed and the storm having 30-40 kt of shear over it.

[sweetpea]

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 12, 2006



an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured 68-kt winds at
700 mb in the northeast quadrant just northwest of Cedar Key
flordia... which was in an area of 64+ kt doppelr velocity data
from Tampa Bay and Tallahassee. These wind reports were in areas of
convective banding with reflectivities of at least 40 dbz...so
using a 90 percent reduction factor seems appropropriate...which
means that Alberto remains a 60-kt tropical storm. The central
pressure of 995 mb is based on earlier recon dropsonde report of
996 mb with a 15-kt surface wind...and NOAA buoy 42036...located
northeast of the center... reporting 997.2 mb pressure at 13/02z.
The initial motion estimate remains 040/09 kt. Upper-air data this
evening indicate a narrow 850-500 mb ridge extending northwestward
ahead of Alberto across southeastern Georgia. This feature is
expected to nudge the cyclone a little to the left of its current
motion...before the being turned back to the northeast ahead of a
digging mid-level shortwave currently located across the Tennessee
and Missouri valleys. The official forecast track remains near the
right or east side of the model guidance envelope...and is a littrl
fater than the previosu advisory after Alberto becomes
extratropical. It is possible that the increasing northwesterly
mid-level flow may force the extratropical low closer to the
Carolina coasts by 48 hours...resulting in an over water
extratropical gale area.
Some shallow convection has been developing around the low-level
center during the past few hours. While Gulf water temperatures are
only around 79-80f ahead of Alberto... the 00z upper-air sounding
from Tampa indicates that the atmopshere ahead of the cyclone ahs
become more unstable since 12z this morning. Since there is
available instabolily to support the regeneration of significant
convection later tonight and Tuesday morning... a forecast of
Alberto possibly reaching hurricane strength before landfall
appears to still be in order.

In addition to heavy rains...the main hazard associated with
Alberto will likely be storm surge flooding...which could be 8-10
feet above normal tide levels even for a strong tropical storm in
this area. It is...however...impossible to specify exactly which
locations will experience the greatest storm surge flooding because
this will depend upon the precise track and wind field near
landfall.

Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/0300z 28.4n 84.6w 60 kt
12hr VT 13/1200z 29.5n 83.7w 65 kt
24hr VT 14/0000z 31.1n 82.5w 40 kt...inland
36hr VT 14/1200z 33.1n 80.6w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 15/0000z 35.0n 77.2w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 16/0000z 39.5n 68.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/0000z 44.0n 60.0w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 18/0000z 49.5n 50.0w 40 kt...extratropical