TS Alberto Recon Reports #2

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WindRunner
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#121 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:12 pm

Image

Looking for feedback on my IR choice. Do you like this one, or do you guys think one of the other color IR images would look better, like the rainbow?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex.html
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#122 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:64 knots at flight level --> 51 knots at the surface (59 mph)


Not necessarily. That MAY be true for a tropical cyclone's core, but Alberto is not very tropical now. The entrainment of cooler, drier air has killed off all convection and will prevent those stronger winds from extending down to the surface. It's possible that the normal 0.8 x FL wind equation may have to be lowered to 0.5 or even 0.6 times the FL wind for such a storm. The storm is passing over a couple of buoys now. So far, max winds are 40 kts. I think this storm has a few pockets of 40-45 kts north of the center and that's about it. Looks like a frontal low now.
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#123 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:64 knots at flight level --> 51 knots at the surface (59 mph)


Not necessarily. That MAY be true for a tropical cyclone's core, but Alberto is not very tropical now. The entrainment of cooler, drier air has killed off all convection and will prevent those stronger winds from extending down to the surface. It's possible that the normal 0.8 x FL wind equation may have to be lowered to 0.5 or even 0.6 times the FL wind for such a storm. The storm is passing over a couple of buoys now. So far, max winds are 40 kts. I think this storm has a few pockets of 40-45 kts north of the center and that's about it. Looks like a frontal low now.


So we still aren't considering it very tropical even though its eye is 7C warmer than the immediate surroundings? Or is that not a good indicator of tropicalness :?: . . .

EDIT: This isn't sarcasm, I'm actually curious here.
EDIT: OK, you answered.
Last edited by WindRunner on Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#124 Postby StormScanWx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:18 pm

Content deleted by StormScanWx.
Last edited by StormScanWx on Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#125 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:19 pm

USAF High Density Observations
Storm Name: ALBERTO (01L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF307
Flt Data Number: 14
Latest Recon Position: 41 mi WNW of Cedar Key, Florida

01: 01:07:00; 28.6°N 83.9°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 279ft; Wnd: S (187°) @ 52mph (Max: 52mph); T: 51F; D: 38F; Radar Alt: 10420ft
02: 01:07:30; 28.6°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 282ft; Wnd: S (185°) @ 48mph (Max: 50mph); T: 50F; D: 39F; Radar Alt: 10430ft
03: 01:08:00; 28.7°N 83.9°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 285ft; Wnd: S (183°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); T: 50F; D: 40F; Radar Alt: 10436ft
04: 01:08:30; 28.7°N 83.9°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 289ft; Wnd: S (184°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); T: 50F; D: 40F; Radar Alt: 10446ft
05: 01:09:00; 28.7°N 83.9°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 295ft; Wnd: S (186°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); T: 49F; D: 41F; Radar Alt: 10440ft
06: 01:09:30; 28.8°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 299ft; Wnd: S (187°) @ 48mph (Max: 50mph); T: 49F; D: 41F; Radar Alt: 10446ft
07: 01:10:00; 28.8°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 302ft; Wnd: S (188°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); T: 48F; D: 42F; Radar Alt: 10449ft
08: 01:10:30; 28.8°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 305ft; Wnd: S (189°) @ 52mph (Max: 53mph); T: 48F; D: 43F; Radar Alt: 10453ft
09: 01:11:00; 28.9°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 308ft; Wnd: S (188°) @ 51mph (Max: 52mph); T: 47F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10456ft
10: 01:11:30; 28.9°N 83.9°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 325ft; Wnd: S (188°) @ 51mph (Max: 52mph); T: 47F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10469ft
11: 01:12:00; 28.9°N 83.9°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 318ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 50mph (Max: 51mph); T: 48F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10472ft
12: 01:12:30; 29°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 322ft; Wnd: S (184°) @ 50mph (Max: 52mph); T: 48F; D: 46F; Radar Alt: 10469ft
13: 01:13:00; 29°N 83.9°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 325ft; Wnd: S (184°) @ 48mph (Max: 51mph); T: 48F; D: 46F; Radar Alt: 10472ft
14: 01:13:30; 29°N 83.8°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 328ft; Wnd: S (188°) @ 41mph (Max: 43mph); T: 46F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10472ft
15: 01:14:00; 29°N 83.8°W; PA: 10010ft; D-Val: 328ft; Wnd: S (190°) @ 40mph (Max: 40mph); T: 45F; D: 43F; Radar Alt: 10486ft
16: 01:14:30; 29.1°N 83.8°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 328ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 44F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10472ft
17: 01:15:00; 29.1°N 83.8°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 331ft; Wnd: SSW (192°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 45F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10479ft
18: 01:15:30; 29.1°N 83.7°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 331ft; Wnd: SSW (194°) @ 43mph (Max: 43mph); T: 45F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10482ft
19: 01:16:00; 29.2°N 83.7°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 331ft; Wnd: SSW (193°) @ 43mph (Max: 44mph); T: 45F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10476ft
20: 01:16:30; 29.2°N 83.7°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 325ft; Wnd: SSW (194°) @ 41mph (Max: 43mph); T: 45F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10472ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#126 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:19 pm

WindRunner wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:64 knots at flight level --> 51 knots at the surface (59 mph)


Not necessarily. That MAY be true for a tropical cyclone's core, but Alberto is not very tropical now. The entrainment of cooler, drier air has killed off all convection and will prevent those stronger winds from extending down to the surface. It's possible that the normal 0.8 x FL wind equation may have to be lowered to 0.5 or even 0.6 times the FL wind for such a storm. The storm is passing over a couple of buoys now. So far, max winds are 40 kts. I think this storm has a few pockets of 40-45 kts north of the center and that's about it. Looks like a frontal low now.


So we still aren't considering it very tropical even though its eye is 7C warmer than the immediate surroundings? Or is that not a good indicator of tropicalness :?: . . .


Well, it probably isn't purely ET yet, but the layer of cooler drier air that was entrained into the circulation will stabilize the lower levels of the storm, preventing the vertical transfer of higher winds aloft.
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#127 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:19 pm

915
SXXX50 KNHC 130115
AF307 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 14 KNHC
0107 2835N 08356W 03047 0085 187 045 106 036 045 03176 0000000000
0107. 2837N 08356W 03048 0086 185 042 102 040 043 03179 0000000000
0108 2839N 08356W 03049 0087 183 042 100 042 042 03181 0000000000
0108. 2841N 08355W 03050 0088 184 042 098 044 042 03184 0000000000
0109 2843N 08355W 03047 0090 186 042 096 048 042 03182 0000000000
0109. 2845N 08355W 03048 0091 187 042 096 048 043 03184 0000000000
0110 2847N 08355W 03048 0092 188 043 090 054 043 03185 0000000000
0110. 2849N 08355W 03048 0093 189 045 088 062 046 03186 0000000000
0111 2852N 08355W 03048 0094 188 044 082 072 045 03187 0000000000
0111. 2854N 08355W 03047 0099 188 044 086 072 045 03191 0000000000
0112 2856N 08353W 03050 0097 191 043 090 068 044 03192 0000000000
0112. 2857N 08352W 03048 0098 184 043 090 078 045 03191 0000000000
0113 2859N 08351W 03047 0099 184 042 088 080 044 03192 0000000000
0113. 2901N 08349W 03047 0100 188 036 076 070 037 03192 0000000000
0114 2902N 08348W 03051 0100 190 035 070 060 035 03196 0000000000
0114. 2904N 08347W 03047 0100 191 035 068 068 036 03192 0000000000
0115 2906N 08345W 03049 0101 192 035 070 066 036 03194 0000000000
0115. 2907N 08344W 03048 0101 194 037 072 068 037 03195 0000000000
0116 2909N 08343W 03047 0101 193 037 070 070 038 03193 0000000000
0116. 2911N 08341W 03048 0099 194 036 070 070 037 03192 0000000000
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#128 Postby StormScanWx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:21 pm

Hmmm... Sorry y'all. My post was from other inaccurate data.
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#129 Postby curtadams » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:22 pm

WindRunner wrote:Looking for feedback on my IR choice. Do you like this one, or do you guys think one of the other color IR images would look better, like the rainbow?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex.html

Rainbow *looks* better but AVN has more color contrast, especially with lower convection like we have now. I think you're doing great.
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#130 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:24 pm

curtadams wrote:Rainbow *looks* better but AVN has more color contrast, especially with lower convection like we have now. I think you're doing great.


OK then, here's the next one:

Image

Probably sampling some of the NE quad convection which is currently over land - don't know if they'll go there or not . . .
Last edited by WindRunner on Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#131 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:24 pm

Here's a 01Z surface plot. Note that the center is right next to a buoy. Max winds reported at that buoy have been 30 kts. The buoy to the north with 35 kts was at 40 kts at 00Z. Winds around the center at the surface are generally 30-40 kts east of the center and 20-25 kts to the west.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto40.gif
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#132 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:30 pm

Forgot to post this

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: ALBERTO (01L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 07
Time: 0124Z
Latitude: 29.5°N
Longitude: 83.5°W
Location: 40 mi NW of Cedar Key, Florida
Turbulence: Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: S (170°) @ 70 mph
Temperature: 45°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#133 Postby curtadams » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:30 pm

WindRunner wrote:Probably sampling some of the NE quad convection which is currently over land - don't know if they'll go there or not . . .

Your AVN shot is a little old, right? (Don't change it, it's great) So that southern shot probably went into the deepest convection there. They've certainly tried to sample the deepest convection on these Alberto runs.
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#134 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:30 pm

704
SXXX50 KNHC 130124
AF307 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 15 KNHC
0117 2913N 08340W 03049 0099 192 038 064 064 039 03193 0000000000
0117. 2914N 08339W 03048 0098 191 041 076 076 042 03191 0000000000
0118 2916N 08337W 03050 0097 190 044 078 078 045 03191 0000000000
0118. 2918N 08336W 03048 0093 186 043 078 078 045 03186 0000000000
0119 2919N 08335W 03047 0090 181 050 070 070 051 03182 0000000000
0119. 2921N 08333W 03044 0085 184 061 066 066 063 03174 0000000000
0120 2923N 08332W 03054 0088 179 059 060 060 061 03187 0000000000
0120. 2925N 08331W 03044 0086 179 066 062 062 066 03175 0000000000
0121 2927N 08329W 03046 0088 176 067 064 064 068 03179 0000000000
0121. 2928N 08327W 03050 0090 178 064 068 068 066 03185 0000000000
0122 2930N 08326W 03052 0090 182 056 074 074 058 03187 0000000000
0122. 2932N 08325W 03047 0091 176 060 068 068 062 03183 0000000000
0123 2933N 08327W 03049 0096 173 058 062 062 060 03191 0000000000
0123. 2932N 08329W 03043 0094 182 055 070 070 057 03182 0000000000
0124 2931N 08330W 03049 0093 175 058 062 062 061 03187 0000000000
0124. 2930N 08331W 03050 0093 174 061 066 066 063 03188 0000000000
0125 2929N 08331W 02938 0086 178 059 076 076 059 03068 0000000000
0125. 2928N 08331W 02770 0074 178 059 082 082 061 02888 0000000000
0126 2927N 08332W 02599 0062 173 059 086 086 062 02705 0000000000
0126. 2925N 08333W 02436 0052 165 053 088 088 057 02532 0000000000
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#135 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:31 pm

USAF High Density Observations
Storm Name: ALBERTO (01L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF307
Flt Data Number: 15
Latest Recon Position: 41 mi WNW of Cedar Key, Florida

01: 01:17:00; 29.2°N 83.7°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 325ft; Wnd: SSW (192°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); T: 44F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10476ft
02: 01:17:30; 29.2°N 83.7°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 322ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 47mph (Max: 48mph); T: 46F; D: 46F; Radar Alt: 10469ft
03: 01:18:00; 29.3°N 83.6°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 318ft; Wnd: S (190°) @ 51mph (Max: 52mph); T: 46F; D: 46F; Radar Alt: 10469ft
04: 01:18:30; 29.3°N 83.6°W; PA: 10000ft; D-Val: 305ft; Wnd: S (186°) @ 50mph (Max: 52mph); T: 46F; D: 46F; Radar Alt: 10453ft
05: 01:19:00; 29.3°N 83.6°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 295ft; Wnd: S (181°) @ 58mph (Max: 59mph); T: 45F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10440ft
06: 01:19:30; 29.4°N 83.6°W; PA: 9987ft; D-Val: 279ft; Wnd: S (184°) @ 70mph (Max: 73mph); T: 44F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10413ft
07: 01:20:00; 29.4°N 83.5°W; PA: 10020ft; D-Val: 289ft; Wnd: S (179°) @ 68mph (Max: 70mph); T: 43F; D: 43F; Radar Alt: 10456ft
08: 01:20:30; 29.4°N 83.5°W; PA: 9987ft; D-Val: 282ft; Wnd: S (179°) @ 76mph (Max: 76mph); T: 43F; D: 43F; Radar Alt: 10417ft
09: 01:21:00; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 9993ft; D-Val: 289ft; Wnd: S (176°) @ 77mph (Max: 78mph); T: 44F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10430ft
10: 01:21:30; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 295ft; Wnd: S (178°) @ 74mph (Max: 76mph); T: 44F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10449ft
11: 01:22:00; 29.5°N 83.4°W; PA: 10013ft; D-Val: 295ft; Wnd: S (182°) @ 65mph (Max: 67mph); T: 45F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10456ft
12: 01:22:30; 29.5°N 83.4°W; PA: 9997ft; D-Val: 299ft; Wnd: S (176°) @ 69mph (Max: 71mph); T: 44F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10443ft
13: 01:23:00; 29.6°N 83.5°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 315ft; Wnd: S (173°) @ 67mph (Max: 69mph); T: 43F; D: 43F; Radar Alt: 10469ft
14: 01:23:30; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 9984ft; D-Val: 308ft; Wnd: S (182°) @ 63mph (Max: 66mph); T: 45F; D: 45F; Radar Alt: 10440ft
15: 01:24:00; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 10003ft; D-Val: 305ft; Wnd: S (175°) @ 67mph (Max: 70mph); T: 43F; D: 43F; Radar Alt: 10456ft
16: 01:24:30; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 10007ft; D-Val: 305ft; Wnd: S (174°) @ 70mph (Max: 73mph); T: 44F; D: 44F; Radar Alt: 10459ft
17: 01:25:00; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 9639ft; D-Val: 282ft; Wnd: S (178°) @ 68mph (Max: 68mph); T: 46F; D: 46F; Radar Alt: 10066ft
18: 01:25:30; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 9088ft; D-Val: 243ft; Wnd: S (178°) @ 68mph (Max: 70mph); T: 47F; D: 47F; Radar Alt: 9475ft
19: 01:26:00; 29.5°N 83.5°W; PA: 8527ft; D-Val: 203ft; Wnd: S (173°) @ 68mph (Max: 71mph); T: 47F; D: 47F; Radar Alt: 8875ft
20: 01:26:30; 29.4°N 83.6°W; PA: 7992ft; D-Val: 171ft; Wnd: SSE (165°) @ 61mph (Max: 66mph); T: 48F; D: 48F; Radar Alt: 8307ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#136 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:36 pm

Image

Yeah, this AVN shot is from 00:45Z. The minimum processing delay is 25 minutes, and is often more than that.

Interesting note: they turned around .9 miles from the coast - complete u-turn, and on a dime, too.

68knot wind was as they were approaching the coast.
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#137 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 pm

476
SXXX50 KNHC 130134
AF307 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 16 KNHC
0127 2924N 08334W 02298 0044 161 053 090 090 059 02386 0000000000
0127. 2923N 08335W 02115 0043 161 059 100 100 062 02194 0000000000
0128 2922N 08337W 01954 0032 153 048 110 110 054 02021 0000000000
0128. 2921N 08338W 01842 0031 157 044 122 122 050 01907 0000000000
0129 2920N 08339W 01827 0032 155 047 120 120 049 01894 0000000000
0129. 2919N 08340W 01831 0030 155 041 124 124 045 01896 0000000000
0130 2918N 08341W 01826 0033 162 046 132 132 051 01894 0000000000
0130. 2917N 08343W 01829 0033 159 049 140 140 051 01897 0000000000
0131 2916N 08344W 01831 0034 160 050 144 144 053 01900 0000000000
0131. 2915N 08345W 01825 0034 161 048 144 144 051 01895 0000000000
0132 2914N 08346W 01831 0033 160 047 148 148 048 01899 0000000000
0132. 2913N 08347W 01830 0034 157 043 142 142 045 01900 0000000000
0133 2912N 08349W 01831 0035 154 040 144 144 042 01902 0000000000
0133. 2911N 08350W 01824 0034 164 037 146 146 039 01893 0000000000
0134 2910N 08351W 01830 0033 164 032 146 146 033 01898 0000000000
0134. 2909N 08352W 01828 0032 164 029 150 134 030 01895 0000000000
0135 2908N 08354W 01829 0032 165 028 152 130 029 01896 0000000000
0135. 2906N 08355W 01829 0031 164 025 158 118 027 01895 0000000000
0136 2905N 08356W 01762 0026 161 025 164 112 026 01823 0000000000
0136. 2904N 08358W 01622 0016 158 027 176 114 027 01673 0000000000
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#138 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:39 pm

from earlier...

Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Inbound Ob #1: 29.1°N 086.3°W; D-value: 200 feet; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Flt level wind: NNE (20°) @ 48 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 29.0°N 086.1°W; D-value: 200 feet; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: NNE (30°) @ 50 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 28.8°N 085.9°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Flt level wind: NNE (20°) @ 60 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 28.6°N 085.7°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 43°F; Flt level wind: N (350°) @ 39 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 28.4°N 085.5°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: NNE (30°) @ 35 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 28.2°N 085.3°W; 700mb height: 10000 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: NNE (20°) @ 33 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 60 mph at 28.8°N 085.9°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NE (50°) @ 35 mph

Outbound Ob #1: 27.9°N 084.8°W; 700mb height: 10000 feet; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Flt level wind: SW (230°) @ 30 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 27.8°N 084.6°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 43°F; Flt level wind: SSW (210°) @ 62 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 27.6°N 084.4°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Flt level wind: SW (220°) @ 53 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 27.4°N 084.2°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 43°F; Flt level wind: SW (220°) @ 73 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 27.2°N 084.0°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: SSW (210°) @ 67 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 27.0°N 083.8°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: SSW (210°) @ 70 mph

Max flight level wind (Outbound): 73 mph at 27.4°N 084.2°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: NA
Storm Name: ALBERTO (01L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 06
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WindRunner
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#139 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:40 pm

Image

Heading in for another fix.
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#140 Postby thunderchief » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:42 pm

standard flight level reduction should equate to about 60 knots at the surface(they are at 700mb). I know the flight level reductions are just estimates, but there is no need to let the public think that the storm is weakening when the pressure is about the same.

while I personally dont think we will see any 60 knot sustained winds without the deep convection, I would leave the 11pm local advisory at 60 knots.
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