What happened to the strike probabilities?

[Stormcenter]

What happened to the strike probabilities the NHC use to issue?

[TexasSam]

I have been wondering about that for about 3 days now.
I guess it's a change for this year.

[CrazyC83]

They discontinued those. I always felt they were underestimated and poor references in thinking that a hurricane was an actual point.

[curtadams]

Last year some of us noticed they were very incompatible with the cone. I think the system they were based on was very old and they didn't think it worth the trouble to update. I doubt they saw much use now that everybody can look at the graphics anyway.

[AJC3]

They were replaced by the wind speed proabablities

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0231.shtml

000
FONT11 KNHC 122021
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100Z MON JUN 12 2006

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)

ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)

AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)

PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 1(12)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) 1(19)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) X(30)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 33(39) 2(41) X(41)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 28(39) 1(40) X(40)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 19(37) 1(38) X(38)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 11(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 11(36) X(36) X(36)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CHARLESTON SC 34 1 9(10) 13(23) 13(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ATLANTA GA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

AUGUSTA GA 34 1 10(11) 9(20) 8(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

SAVANNAH GA 34 5 24(29) 15(44) 6(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

JACKSONVILLE 34 47 23(70) 5(75) X(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
JACKSONVILLE 50 1 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 41 12(53) 2(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

ORLANDO FL 34 42 7(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
ORLANDO FL 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 18 8(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)

FT PIERCE FL 34 10 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)

W PALM BEACH 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

MIAMI FL 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

MARATHON FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

KEY WEST FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MARCO ISLAND 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

FT MYERS FL 34 18 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)

VENICE FL 34 51 2(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
VENICE FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

TAMPA FL 34 78 2(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
TAMPA FL 50 20 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 71 8(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 57 10(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 9 13(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ST MARKS FL 34 75 7(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
ST MARKS FL 50 24 15(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ST MARKS FL 64 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

APALACHICOLA 34 71 2(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
APALACHICOLA 50 19 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
APALACHICOLA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 60 1(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 26 4(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

COLUMBUS GA 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

PENSACOLA FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

MOBILE AL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT

12 289N 841W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 289N 841W 50 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 289N 841W 64 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)

24 304N 830W 34 74 16(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
24 304N 830W 50 17 34(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
24 304N 830W 64 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

36 321N 819W 34 7 30(37) 13(50) 5(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56)
36 321N 819W 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
36 321N 819W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

48 340N 800W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33)
48 340N 800W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
48 340N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)


72 370N 720W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) X(34)
72 370N 720W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
72 370N 720W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)


96 420N 650W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21)
96 420N 650W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
96 420N 650W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)


120 470N 570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
120 470N 570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
120 470N 570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65 50 30 30 40 40 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)


FORECASTER PASCH

[soonertwister]

I agree with their change of philosophy 100%. Much as the SPC has been preaching heavily that people should not abandon well-built homes secured on foundations to seek highway underpasses for shelter, so has the NHC hammered away that people should not focus on a forecast path as a line, and as a "best guess" estimate of where the center of the storm will go.

And in both cases, their pleas for sanity have fallen on deaf ears. In 1999 in Oklahoma City, possibly the most tornado-savvy community on the planet, people abandoned their cars on an interstate highway to seek false shelter at underpasses, completely blocking the interstate at a most critical time, and leaving thousands helplessly stranded and at risk of horrible death from an F5 tornado.

In New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin and the salty residents of that city laughed off any real threat of danger from a Hurricane Katrina that was reduced to category 2 well before reaching that metro area. People in Mississippi were stunned when huge storm surge thrust well inland, killing hundreds. A year earlier, people were extremely upset when a hurricane crossed the southern west coast of Florida because they were hit so hard, yet the cane only made a slight deviation to the right of the forecast center of track, and those who were vastly upset were already well within the cone of possibility of a major hurricane strike.

It seems strange that we need to generalize warnings in our technological age, but hurricanes are special events that require special types of preparation. I'm all with NHC on the move to generalize the impact definition of areas in potential danger from a tropical storm. It makes complete sense to me.

[Audrey2Katrina]

In New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin and the salty residents of that city laughed off any real threat of danger from a Hurricane Katrina that was reduced to category 2 well before reaching that metro area.

As a "salty" resident of the area I'm not sure how to take that label, but more to the point:

In the first place, Katrina was a Category 3 all the way to the Mississippi Coast, which is well past the "metro" area, and secondly, since I live here and went through it, I can assure you nobody "laughed" anything off about Katrina. Voluntary evacuations were STRONLY suggested while it was still 2 days out, and watching that monster in the Gulf was anything but a laughing matter.

That said, they used the "wind probabilities" on their charts last year, personally I had no problems with the strike probabilities but the wind probabilities give essentially the same information.

A2K

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I agree with their change of philosophy 100%. Much as the SPC has been preaching heavily that people should not abandon well-built homes secured on foundations to seek highway underpasses for shelter, so has the NHC hammered away that people should not focus on a forecast path as a line, and as a "best guess" estimate of where the center of the storm will go.

And in both cases, their pleas for sanity have fallen on deaf ears. In 1999 in Oklahoma City, possibly the most tornado-savvy community on the planet, people abandoned their cars on an interstate highway to seek false shelter at underpasses, completely blocking the interstate at a most critical time, and leaving thousands helplessly stranded and at risk of horrible death from an F5 tornado.

In New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin and the salty residents of that city laughed off any real threat of danger from a Hurricane Katrina that was reduced to category 2 well before reaching that metro area. People in Mississippi were stunned when huge storm surge thrust well inland, killing hundreds. A year earlier, people were extremely upset when a hurricane crossed the southern west coast of Florida because they were hit so hard, yet the cane only made a slight deviation to the right of the forecast center of track, and those who were vastly upset were already well within the cone of possibility of a major hurricane strike.

It seems strange that we need to generalize warnings in our technological age, but hurricanes are special events that require special types of preparation. I'm all with NHC on the move to generalize the impact definition of areas in potential danger from a tropical storm. It makes complete sense to me.

What do you mean "laughed off any real threat of danger from a Hurricane Katrina that was reduced to category 2 well before reaching that metro area?" Katrina was never reduced to Category 2 until it reached inland SE Mississippi. I'm not disagreeing that it wasn't taken seriously enough, I just don't understand your statement.

[soonertwister]

New Orleans, a city with a bar that had never closed. Maybe it's presumptious to assume that large numbers of citizens of New Orleans did not respect this hurricane enough.

But history told me that many in NOLA would not evacuate, because there had not been a hurricane catastrophe there for many decades. The city itself including the mayor exhibited an attitude much like an assumption of near-immunity from catastrophic consequences. Nagin himself did not declare a mandatory evacaution until far too late, and I saw all of his pre-hurricane public statements on television, so I know what I'm talking about. He was socializing less than 36 hours from landfall, and very reluctantly ordered the evacaution.

Watching people look foolish while completely drunk out of their minds in the French Quarter, on the night AFTER the hurricane had passed left me utterly amazed.

But Mayor Nagin never implemented their own evacuation plan, left school buses in low-lying areas where they were flooded, buses that could have been used to evacuate the rest of the city in the days following the hurricane. The mistakes that he and New Orleans and the State of Louisiana, and yes the federal government made; they were legion, and we hope that we have learned our lessons and will not repeat them.

But I'm skeptical. The same city that was dramatically failed by their own top elected leader recently returned him to his post. His strongest constituent base were the people who as a group and for the most part suffered to the greatest degreee, so if I don't expect much to change in the Big Easy. I hope that you will excuse my skepticism.

This is my last statement EVER here about this issue. I'm not primarily here to create firestorms of controversy. You can agree or disagree with me, but I'm unlikely to take a radically different tack on this under any circumstances.

NOLA's problems have been endemic, and directly related to poverty, classism, and lack of access to quality education and opportunity, tools without which those in poverty are doomed to repeat the cycle. Corruption in government there allowed those conditions to exist to an extent barely seen anywhere else in the United States. That same general atmosphere of corruption allowed the wholesale diversion of funds for the maintenance and improvement of protective levies to be squandered into pockets elsewhere while the city continued to sink, and to lose most the barrier lands that had protectd it at the same time.

The median family income in New Orleans is less than one-fifth of that in my own county of residence, and we have an above-average number of people in poverty here, working primarily in service industries in a community that pays higher wages than most, if those persons are not unemployed.

And regarding the strength of Hurricane Katrina, yes it was a most-powerful storm over the loop waters of the eastern Gulf, but it was a category 4 storm approaching land, fell to category 3 near landfall in SELA, and Orleans Parish did not receive higher than category 2 sustained winds. The power of the storm was mainly manifested by the breached and collapsed levees, which were a product of the prolonged strength and time of persistence before landfall. Few houses, even dilapidated ones, were collapsed by Katrina's wind impact west of Plaquemines Parish.

Storm surge was the primary killer all along this cane's path of coastal impact.

My editiorial contributions to this issue have now ceased. Better to let my feelings out and let those who chose to cut them to pieces at your leisure, rather than create some sort of prolonged shouting warfare here. I'm here for tropical storms, primarily. This is a social and political issue related to those storms. It's pertinent, and I now leave it to the real scholars to dissect.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Nice pre-emptive strike; but unless the mods decide to remove the thread, I can't let a lot of what you opined go unanswered.

New Orleans, a city with a bar that had never closed. Maybe it's presumptious to assume that large numbers of citizens of New Orleans did not respect this hurricane enough.

New Orleans has several bars that never closed. And your point?
And while there indeed are always those that don't respect the storms, I do think it presumptuous to assume "large" numbers of citizens would feel whatever about the storm, but the term "large" numbers does leave one with plenty semantic wiggle room. Your original statement wasn't about large numbers, it generalized to the entire city which was a gross assumption.

But history told me that many in NOLA would not evacuate, because there had not been a hurricane catastrophe there for many decades.

Now we're down to "many"... essentially this is an accurate statement.

The city itself including the mayor exhibited an attitude much like an assumption of near-immunity from catastrophic consequences.

The city "itself"? Really, and do you have verifiable data other than what the mainstream media portrayed to substantiate this claim--the CITY itself? Hyperbole does little for credibility.

Nagin himself did not declare a mandatory evacaution until far too late, and I saw all of his pre-hurricane public statements on television, so I know what I'm talking about.

On the first part of the statement, I won't dispute the facts, with a mention that this city has NEVER undergone a "mandatory" evacuation in its history. The "voluntary" calls were out in plenty of time--and hundreds of thousands heeded them. As to the latter part, well, since you "saw...on television"... I guess there's nothing to say. I mean we all know that what's shown on television covers the entire story!

Watching people look foolish while completely drunk out of their minds in the French Quarter, on the night AFTER the hurricane had passed left me utterly amazed.

It also appears to have made you judge an entire city for the acts of these "fools".

Regarding a lot of the pablum that followed, I will abide by the "rules" of this forum and avoid political debate, which you clearly seem comfortable with hedging on. As to our "corruption"... this is not unique to our area, and in case you hadn't yet "seen it on TV" The US Army Corps of Engineers has since publicly ADMITTED that it was at fault for the weaknesses in the levees--this falls under the purview of FEDERAL government, not local--corrupt or otherwise.

Orleans Parish did not receive higher than category 2 sustained winds.

Most here would agree with that assessment, however it's NOT what you originally posted when you said it had been reduced to a Category 2 "Long before" reaching the metro area, which is categorically untrue--I'm glad you managed to correct that misstep--after all it was "seen on TV."

My editiorial contributions to this issue have now ceased.

This is NOT a forum for such "editorials" but the news is appreciated.

This is my last statement EVER here about this issue.

I dearly hope this is true, as in this New Orleanian's opinion, it is sorely uninformed.

Dissection ended.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Apologies to all for the threadjacking which took place; but I just can't sit idly by and watch a backseat driver tell me about what went on in my city from umpteen hundred miles away. For my part in the foray, I apologize--call it a defensive nerve the cord of which has been sore for much too long.

I welcome any return to the TOPIC of discussing "Storm probabilities"... if there are any further comments to add, and regret the aside.

A2K

[Dionne]

It's such a disappointment to see people view New Orleans in such a manner. It happens to be my favorite city.

In the general population there will always be people that do not heed warnings and evacuate. Irregardless of location. I am of the opinion that it is impossible to entirely evacuate any major metropolitan city.

The folks that evacuated the coastal south during Katrinas landfall was tremendous.

[flightpath]

And well dissected if I say so myself. A2K you now have a new fan.

soonertwister we have a saying down here that now applies to you, and A2K will
know what I mean when I tell you "you tore your drawers" with that post.

[sunny]

In New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin and the salty residents of that city laughed off any real threat of danger from a Hurricane Katrina that was reduced to category 2 well before reaching that metro area.

I don't know where you got that from, no one here was laughing that's for darn sure. Did you not hear of the mass evacuation that took place here? Does that sound like "salty people" laughing Katrina off? Dude, I left here on Saturday afternoon and the people heading out of the city then were well up there in numbers. You should really get your information right before you go shooting from the hip.

A2K - YOU ROCK!!!!

[fci]

Apologies to all for the threadjacking which took place; but I just can't sit idly by and watch a backseat driver tell me about what went on in my city from umpteen hundred miles away. For my part in the foray, I apologize--call it a defensive nerve the cord of which has been sore for much too long.

I welcome any return to the TOPIC of discussing "Storm probabilities"... if there are any further comments to add, and regret the aside.

A2K

All I can say to you is:

I agree that you cannot just sit back and read pablum like that .
My respect for you is immense.

[timNms]

It always amazes me how there's always someone who thinks they know exactly what went on prior to, during, and after Katrina, yet they were hundreds of miles away. We can thank the media's bias reporting for this.
As has been stated, there were hundreds, even thousands, who evacuated. There were also some who could not evacuate due to either lack of transportation or just complacency.

As far as strike probabilities goes, I liked seeing them. I understood that the probabilities were for the center of the storm coming within 60 NM (correct?) of a particular area. I assume that the wind probabilities will be about the same thing.

[bvigal]

There are still wind speed strike probability graphics, but they are divided into 33 separate pics! For tropical storm, gale force, and hurricane force, by 12 hour intervals out to 120hrs.

You can see an example with Alberto at this link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... ?tswind120

Just scroll down the page to see the larger pic. The loops are really cool!