Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[butch]

WTNT21 KNHC 122021
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100Z MON JUN 12 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...AT THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 85.1W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 85.1W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.9N 84.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.4N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 47.0N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$

[MississippiHurricane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 122024
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO CONTINUES HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...AT THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES
...235 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNED AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...27.9 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE
STORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE LAST FIX FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOLDING NEAR
997 MB AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 67 KT...SO THE
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED. THE STORM HAS LEFT THE
AREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...I.E. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOP
CURRENT...BEHIND. NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY.

ALBERTO'S FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT...TO ABOUT 9 KT. A
500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
WITHIN THIS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
ALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN
THIS AREA. IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.9N 85.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 28.9N 84.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 30.4N 83.0W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/1800Z 47.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'd give Alberto a 60% chance of landfalling as a hurricane, if it does it will be the first one in June in a long time

[HURAKAN]

NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY.

That's still my thinking!!!

[canegrl04]

I heard Jeb Bush mention this afternoon that in 1966 hurricane Alma made landfall in early June ,soits been about 40 years

[MississippiHurricane]

Ill give it about a 57% chance of being a hurricane at landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Right now I'v give it a 5 percent chance of coming in as a hurricane.

[SouthFloridawx]

NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY.

That's still my thinking!!!

Good point Brent I agree.

[caneman]

Ill give it better than 50%. Little night time is all we need.

[Audrey2Katrina]

It seems to be levelling off, and from what I see, the shear is taking its toll now, and it's moving into cooler waters. I concede the possibility of further intensification before landfall; but sincerely doubt it. High end TS is my prediction (and no one else's) when all is said and done. We shall see.

A2K

[JonathanBelles]

fell asleep here in the chair waiting fot the adisory still forecast to be a hurricane huh? ill give it a 60% chance

[CrazyC83]

I give it a 50% chance of becoming a hurricane, but only a 20% chance of a hurricane landfall.

[cmdebbie]

Tom Terry, Orlando Meteorologist, just said he is expecting it to make landfall at Cedar Key, around sunrise, as a minimal hurricane (75 mph). He sure got Charley right.

[jabber]

Same here. TS is it.

It seems to be levelling off, and from what I see, the shear is taking its toll now, and it's moving into cooler waters. I concede the possibility of further intensification before landfall; but sincerely doubt it. High end TS is my prediction (and no one else's) when all is said and done. We shall see.

A2K

[Stratusxpeye]

I would have to say a best estimate would be 60% chance of possible 75mph winds in an extremely small area of the storm by morning for a very brief time. But landfall around 60-65 mph. Cedar key area or a few miles north.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Tom Terry, Orlando Meteorologist, just said he is expecting it to make landfall at Cedar Key, around sunrise, as a minimal hurricane (75 mph). He sure got Charley right.

Tom Terry is the best Met in Orlando IMO I'd take his word for it.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
700 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARING THE WARNING AREAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD... AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER... AT THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES
...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORARD...
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE WARNED AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL... ALBERTO STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEEE BAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA... MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.0 N...84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think saying Alberto has 70 mph winds is being too generous IMO. To heavily sheared and too much dry air getting sucked into the system.

[Scorpion]

Of course it is. But recon isn't in there to confirm yet.