Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

It was 50 mph.. but it was a very weak storm.

Only 50mph?? Created a lot of tornadoes from such a weak storm!

Yupp, which proves that ANY landfalling TC is a threat. Between Allison and TS Bonnie, it's a fact.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...550 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10
KM/HR ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
ALBERTO AND EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF
30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
TUESDAY... WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO
APALACHICOLA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN
AND POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Audrey2Katrina]

Gotta give it to him, those TS winds extend pretty far out from the "center", (admittedly in that cluster to the N. and E) I just wonder how far FROM the center before they actually reach that velocity.

A2K

[P.K.]

45kts

WTNT21 KNHC 120835
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0900Z MON JUN 12 2006

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.2W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.2W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 87.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N 86.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.1N 85.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 83.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.0N 73.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 46.5N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[P.K.]

WTNT41 KNHC 120914
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

ALTHOUGH THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH ALBERTO NEAR
05Z FOUND ONLY A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MINIMUM OF 1006 MB
AND NO CLEAR CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND BUILT WESTWARD AGAINST THE
SHEAR...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT A CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
CONVECTION. A DROPSONDE ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION REPORTED 40
KT AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z...AND THE PRESSURE AT BUOY 42003 HAS
FALLEN TO 1002.9 MB. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT THREE HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/7. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF ALBERTO...WHICH IS STILL EMBEDDED
IN A ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH DROP AN UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF THAT
BACKS THE FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST.

NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY...BUT IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE
CORRECT IT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DICTATES A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 26.2N 87.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 27.1N 86.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 28.1N 85.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 83.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 35.0N 73.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0600Z 46.5N 52.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow now they think 65 mph winds with probably Cat-1 gusts.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The 7AM Advisory will probably be late since Recon will be nearing Alberto and the NHC will probably get some need information from them.

[Lowpressure]

IR shows a large and rather impressive blowup in the NE Gulf this morning. NHC says it is building against the shear. If the center can get under even some of the storms it could be a little nastier than predicted.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 121155
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
700 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALBERTO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneHunter914]

The 10:00 AM Advisory will really tell us if Alberto strengthened or not.

[WeatherDudeB]

This is what makes Weather Wathing worthwhile. Oh the suprises mother nature pulls.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This really exciting. Alberto just continues to suprise us.

[cycloneye]

They will wait for the vortex message before the advisory is out.

[drezee]

336
WTNT21 KNHC 121432
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1500Z MON JUN 12 2006

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.9W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.8N 84.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$

[HURAKAN]

No warning or watches for the east coast???

[mtm4319]

No warning or watches for the east coast???

I don't think it'd still be a hurricane on the east coast, but maybe a TS watch would be appropriate. My guess is they'll do that at 11pm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This now is looking like a Panhandle hit:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large

[canegrl04]

2006 is getting off to an onimous start. Lets hope this does not portend what the rest of the season will be like

[Ivanhater]

Holy crap!

[Stratusxpeye]

2006 Starts out fighting. Hope the trend doesnt continue. Couldnt imagine what alberto would b ewithout any shear let alone the dray air too.