TIME to WRITE OFF ALBERO

jabber · #41 Postby **jabber** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:40 am

Same here. Every time I think its time to call a storm dead, it strengthens. And everytime I think a storms gonna bomb, it dies. I am going to start forecasting by opposite.

Air Force Met wrote:OK...I woke up...and it's not gone...matter of fact...it looks better now than it ever has.

Next.

HurricaneHunter914 · #42 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:41 am

Same happened with Emily when everyone was saying it was going to disappate and run into SA, but instead it strengthened to a Cat-5 and hitthe Yucatan.

#43 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:45 am

Something that I have learned over the past few years is to always expect the unexpected.

#44 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:53 am

jabber wrote:Same here. Every time I think its time to call a storm dead, it strengthens. And everytime I think a storms gonna bomb, it dies. I am going to start forecasting by opposite.

Air Force Met wrote:OK...I woke up...and it's not gone...matter of fact...it looks better now than it ever has.

Next.

Hmmmm....the George Costanza method. Might work!

HurricaneHunter914 · #45 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:56 am

And here's the S2K method,"SHH THEY'LL HEAR YOU!"

rockyman · #46 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:12 am

Today's lesson (a twist on yesterday's infrared lesson): NEVER NEVER "write off" a healthy LLC in the Gulf during hurricane season, just because it's nighttime and you can't see the pretty swirl. As long as a tropical LLC is in the Gulf with sufficient water temperatures, there is ALWAYS danger...I don't care how much dry air and shear seem to be "killing" the system.

#47 Postby **feederband** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:13 am

I love threads like these.. :wink:

HurricaneHunter914 · #48 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:14 am

We saw many of them last year. 8-)

Grease Monkey · #49 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:15 am

Sorry I couldn't resist.
If Alberto could sing, maybe his words would go something like this:

I was down to zero
Still an unsung hero
Waiting for my ship to come to shore
I stood empty handed
Like a seagull stranded
Watching all the other seagulls soar
I was slowly losing hope
Twisting frayed ends of the rope
In a suicidal fantasy
I was going to extremes
Losing sight of all my dreams again
I never thought I'd win
I was blinded by the pain
Running wild through the rain
In a parody of extacy
I was inches from the edge
Fingers clinging to the ledge again
I never thought I'd win
Got to keep my cool
I am not the fool
Everyone expects to play me for
I could change the pattern
Steal a ring from Saturn
Forge myself into a man-of-war
I am equal to the task
I won't hide behind the mask
What you see is what you'll get from me
I am stronger than they think
They can force me to the brink again
But now I know I'll win
I will steal the thunder
Rolling out from under
Every cloud that's clashing in the sky
Like a true defender
I will not surrender
Why should I lie down for them and die?
I am equal to the task
I won't hide behind the mask
What you see is what you'll get from me
I am stronger than they think
They can force me to the brink again
But now I know I'll win
WIN IN THE END
I'M GONNA WIN IN THE END
WIN IN THE END
I'M GONNA WIN IN THE END

"Win In The End"
By Mark Safan from "Teen Wolf" motion picture soundtrack

(Edited by GD to give credit to artist)

Thunder44 · #50 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:15 am

People who write these things based on appearance forget what happened with other storms in previous seasons. I remember Claudette a few years which looked like the way this storm did yesterday when it was in the Gulf, only to slam Texas at almost a Cat 2 hurricane.

#51 Postby **angelwing** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:52 am

One of the resasons why I keep my predictions to myself, after last year I am not predicting anything!

kenl01 · #52 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:51 am

Alberto is a big blob of convection, with no organized center anywhere this morning. Some slight deepening of the pressure last night took place due to increased convection around the circulation. Still I'm not impressed at this time. Should be a good rain maker........ :wink:

HurricaneHunter914 · #53 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:53 am

NO ORGANIZED CENTER?! The LLC is really well-defined right now.

#54 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:55 am

The same things that were said about Alberto were said of Katrina when she was a weak TD in the Bahamas. The point being it's not over until it's over. Alberto has fought some the worst conditions possible in the GOM and still has managed to strengthen and become better organized..

kenl01 · #55 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:00 am

I didn't see an organized eye anywhere. At least it will produce an increased chance of heavy rain/thundershowers in the SE. Should be a good rain maker. Otherwise it shouldn't be a huge deal. There's still strong shearing going on, so that really should limit rapid strengthening.

HurricaneHunter914 · #56 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:02 am

What do you mean "eye" TSs don't have eyes at this stage.

x-y-no · #57 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:09 am

Wow ... I'm quite surprised this morning. I'd written this off as sure to be downgraded to TD before landfall. But it's looking the best it ever has ...

Obviously the shear went way down overnight ...

HurricaneGirl · #58 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:10 am

HURAKAN wrote:Something that I have learned over the past few years is to always expect the unexpected.

Amen to that!!

HurricaneHunter914 · #59 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:11 am

Its actually increasing over Alberto right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Javlin · #60 Postby **Javlin** » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:12 am

You are right no eyes at this stage.I believe you can see the outer rings of the LLC on the W side of the convection though still not terribly well organized but better than last night.I see some of the models are still pushing a little further W like Panama City and Pensacola not far enough W for me.I just got back from S.Fl. yesterday not adrop of rain here.If I am going to get a named system then this is the type"Bring on the Rain"it appears not this time though"just some rain".

TIME to WRITE OFF ALBERO

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