Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[HurricaneHunter914]

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

They said significant development, that doesn't mean any "un"significant development can't occur.

[Scorpion]

Well that's what they said for Alberto and it developed.

[Dean4Storms]

The time to really worry over this wave is when it gets into the western Carib. in a week or so.

[MississippiHurricane]

Does anyone know about how many waves actually turn into depressions?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm not sure if you can really give a number on that, I'll just tell you that alot of waves become TDs and that's all I can say.

[Anthonyl]

Noticed that the NHC mentioned that upper level conditions are unfavourable, however shear seems to be abaiting in the general vicinity.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm not sure if you can really give a number on that, I'll just tell you that alot of waves become TDs and that's all I can say.

Read the thread again...

Hurakan give a fairly good average on the amount of waves to systems ratio.

[HURAKAN]

ONCE AGAIN:

Lets relax and not make forecasts.

Remember, every year we have around 100 tropical waves and only 1/10 on average develop in tropical cyclones. Furthermore, it's june!!!

[gatorcane]

Wow!!!! What a wave for June.

Folks it is going to be a looooong season...

[gatorcane]

I can't believe I am saying this but this wave actually has a decent chance of development after looking at some of the sat pics and wind shear analysis out there - is it August or June out there?

[HurricaneHunter914]

91L could be issued soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that this will not develop yet, but could once into the central and western caribbean.

[gatorcane]

I think it is likely and it looks like it will be heading towards the Caribbean where the water temps and wind shear are ample for development:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[wxmann_91]

I think it is likely and it looks like it will be heading towards the Caribbean where the water temps and wind shear are ample for development:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Do you see that big ul trough in front of the system? That will absolutely rip it apart until it moves into the more favorable environment.

[Ola]

A v-shape usually means that the upper level environment is becoming more favorable for development of a LLC....

Upper air enviroment has nothing to do with the V shape.

Just like when you learn about wave lenghts in an x y chart, the wave will look like an inverted V on sat. Its actually the low level flow wich instead of flowing straight from east to west, it goes from east to northwest and then it dives back southwest and then straight west again, making the V shape. That deformation in the direction of the wind causes the wind to accelerate and it creates a windsurge. When the inverted V turns into an O (the flow of the wind comes back east after diving south) then you have a closed LLC, the first ingredient needed for a tropical depression.

[Cyclenall]

Noticed that the NHC mentioned that upper level conditions are unfavourable, however shear seems to be abaiting in the general vicinity.

I know, I wonder what the NHC was exactly saying because they said it shouldn't significantly develop but they didn't say it won't develop at all.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yup usually when they say the word significantly a minimum TS is possible.

[Swimdude]

Unfavorable condictions at this time -

Let's check back in a few days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it is likely and it looks like it will be heading towards the Caribbean where the water temps and wind shear are ample for development:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Do you see that big ul trough in front of the system? That will absolutely rip it apart until it moves into the more favorable environment.

I don't know what you are seeing. Here is the surface forecast from the NHC in 24 hrs:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

looks favorable to me

[HurricaneHunter914]

Not only that the SSTs should be warm enough to support a major at this point, but dry air and shear need to be low for that to happen.