What is going on with the models? Everything shifting west?

[HardCard]

What the heck is going on with the models? EVerything shifting WEST?

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

[NCHurricane]

Overcompensation for the expected wind pattern shift to a more northernly course....or it is?

EDIT: I should've added this from the 10CDT Discussion:

MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THAT SHOULD ACT
TO TURN ALBERTO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL ONCE
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVERCOMPENSATING FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR AS IT
TAKES THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA... AS DOES THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE BY 36H.

[beachbum_al]

I hope it is a joke because one of those models takes it into my neighborhood and the other two take it to LA.

Hey Mets...we need your opinions please! Why is this going on?

[caneman]

Won't go west of Appalachacola. Alreay moving NNE and prob more like NE

[gpickett00]

before reading the thread i was thinking, this guy is obviously not from where the storm is probably going to go, he is probably from north and west of it. Even if it did hit where you wanted it to (New Orleans), all the rain is on the right side.

[beachbum_al]

I was wondering because the NHC latest report said it was moving NNE. Relief even though we could had used some of the rain. It is my neighbors to the West of me that I am worry about with the rain. Thank you caneman!

[gatorcane]

Yep it has started its NE turn into the Atlantic graveyard...BUT

look out to the east folks - I think we may see a new invest 91L brewing in the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles....

geez....don't these ever stop???

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm going with the NHC on this, a FL hit is what central FL needs definitly.

[beachbum_al]

before reading the thread i was thinking, this guy is obviously not from where the storm is probably going to go, he is probably from north and west of it. Even if it did hit where you wanted it to (New Orleans), all the rain is on the right side.

Who said they wanted it to hit NO. That is the last place that a storm needs to go. Even if it is a weak storm.

[HollynLA]

before reading the thread i was thinking, this guy is obviously not from where the storm is probably going to go, he is probably from north and west of it. Even if it did hit where you wanted it to (New Orleans), all the rain is on the right side.

I thought his question about the models was valid given the big westward shift of many of them. He never said he wanted it to go where he lives. Can no one question such a shift in models without being jumped on.

[NEXRAD]

The more west model tracks are explained in the TPC's evening discussion. However if the storm were sheared apart, then low level steering might move the center (remnant center) towards the North Central Gulf Coast. This, however, would be arbitrary. Due to the deep layer winds, all of the convection and "weather" will be ushered northeast across Florida. Even if the center of Alberto goes towards New Orleans... Mobile... or Pensacola, the effects from the system will be felt pretty much exclusively over Florida.

- Jay
KSC FL

[Stormcenter]

Won't go west of Appalachacola. Alreay moving NNE and prob more like NE

It really isn't going anywhere fast at this moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its actually supposed to be moving at 9 mph, and during the moving "Alberto" should strengthen to 60 mph.

[Evil Jeremy]

in that model picture, there are 4 models. GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, and the BAMM. the UKME, and the BAMM take it away from Florida. mostly everyone here knows the the Ukmet is highly unreliable and was wrong about all of Alberto's other movements. I am not going to argue with the BAMM. The NOGAPS i dont know much about, and the GFDL is right on track. now compare all of that to this model picture: http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=01

Case Closed.

[HardCard]

before reading the thread i was thinking, this guy is obviously not from where the storm is probably going to go, he is probably from north and west of it. Even if it did hit where you wanted it to (New Orleans), all the rain is on the right side.

wow... found one here too.... Wonder why I have less than 50 posts in almost 2 years? Has a lot to do with immature replies...

For your information, I live in the new orleans metro area, and really DON'T want anything above a TS here.. I happened to have a wife and 3 children that I love and don't want them to go through anything like they did last year..

Having said that.. Would it satify you to know that I have a sister and brother in law that live in Largo, Fl... Approximately 2 miles from the coast?

[soonertwister]

If I was to take a best guess, I'd say that Alberto will cross the shore before midnight EDT today. I don't know exactly how anyone got the impression that Alberto wasn't going anywhere anytime soon, but the same tropical storm that was written off last night while in the southern eastern Gulf is now approaching hurricane force, and rushing headlong toward the coast of FLA. It's amazingly close already, and likely to reach landfall more than 12 hours ahead of prior estimates.

So much for not going anywhere soon. By this time tomorrow Alberto may be in the Atlantic.

[TS Zack]

I disagree. He still has a way to go.

Make sure your looking at the visible satellite to see the real center not radar.

[vacanechaser]

before reading the thread i was thinking, this guy is obviously not from where the storm is probably going to go, he is probably from north and west of it. Even if it did hit where you wanted it to (New Orleans), all the rain is on the right side.

I thought his question about the models was valid given the big westward shift of many of them. He never said he wanted it to go where he lives. Can no one question such a shift in models without being jumped on.

no they can't... seems folks here make a statement and someone takes it as a wish-cast.... funny thing is, the models did and have shifted westward more with time... did not mean they were correct.. however, last i looked, the forecast is further west than first thought... even up the east coast... guess we will have to deal with folks like this since the season just started, and it looks to be another long one...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Nimbus]

Watch for the wind shift at the Tampa buoy. Should turn so its out of the north when Alberto passes east of the buoy in a few hours.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[vacanechaser]

I disagree. He still has a way to go.

Make sure your looking at the visible satellite to see the real center not radar.

Very true... what you might be seeing is the mid and upper level center on radar... that looks to be closing in... however, the true low level center is still a good ways off and the forecast points appear to be right on mark in the visible satellite... Looks like sometime tomorrow...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team