Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

It was 50 mph.. but it was a very weak storm.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Hey cycloneye! (read this)

Sorry for the confusion about how to spell advisory. I only mentioned it because I don't know nearly as much about hurricanes and tropical weather as all of you do and wanted to make sure I wasn't making a mistake. You shouldn't have edited your post, lol! When advisory is plural is it advisories, when it is singular it is advisory. I didn't realise English wasn't your first language. Sorry for the mix-up.

[cycloneye]

Hey cycloneye! (read this)

Sorry for the confusion about how to spell advisory. I only mentioned it because I don't know nearly as much about hurricanes and tropical weather as all of you do and wanted to make sure I wasn't making a mistake. You shouldn't have edited your post, lol! When advisory is plural is it advisories, when it is singular it is advisory. I didn't realise English wasn't your first language. Sorry for the mix-up.

No big deal. Thanks for your little concern about this.

[NYCHurr06]

8 p.m. Advisory is out...winds still at 45 MPH:

WTNT31 KNHC 112339
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8
WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...585 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[spinfan4eva]

It was 50 mph.. but it was a very weak storm.

Only 50mph?? Created a lot of tornadoes from such a weak storm!

[CrazyC83]

I'd expect the winds to be 35 or 40 mph at the next advisory.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0300Z MON JUN 12 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.6N 87.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.9N 85.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 84.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.1N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 40.0N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 46.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 87.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

so they held it at 45 mph...the data must be inconclusive...

[Evil Jeremy]

or they are still gathering data.

[WeatherDudeB]

They are not downgrading it? I thought Alberto was dead?

[Scorpion]

They strengthen it more before landfall. So much for it being dead .

[28_Storms]

They're forecasting alberto to get stronger!

[spinfan4eva]

They strengthen it more before landfall. So much for it being dead .

It is now moving NNE--thus shear will be less of a factor cause its moving along with the winds that were shearing it previously

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER... AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NEARBY SHIP WAS 1004 MB
...29.65 INCHES.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO
APALACHICOLA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Swimdude]

They strengthen it more before landfall. So much for it being dead .

It is now moving NNE--thus shear will be less of a factor cause its moving along with the winds that were shearing it previously

That does make logical sense, actually. So we're now expecting a 60mph tropical storm, hmm. I just hope we stick with the "weak-first-storm-of-the-season pattern."

[CrazyC83]

They are not downgrading it? I thought Alberto was dead?

It wasn't dead, but it seemed to have weakened.

[cycloneye]

Still waiting for the discussion.Let's see what Stacey Stewart says about our friend Alberto.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

DATA FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
OVERALL STRUCTURE. SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MEAN CENTER...
AND THE ADVISORY POSITION IS THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN THOSE SWIRLS. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LAST RECON POSITION AT
12/0143Z... AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTROID OF THE LARGE SURFACE
PRESSURE ENVELOPE. THE 40-KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE RECON AIRCRAFT MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED STRONGER WINDS TO THE
EAST OF THE FLIGHT TRACK WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

UPPER-AIR DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ERODED AND LIFTED
NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALSO
SHIFTED NORTHWARD BUT HAS REMAINED INTACT ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
TO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW...HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ACROSS THE
CYCLONE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THAT SHOULD ACT
TO TURN ALBERTO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL ONCE
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVERCOMPENSATING FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR AS IT
TAKES THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA... AS DOES THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE BY 36H. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW PATTERN AFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH KEEPS ALBERTO SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND IN THE DIVERGENT RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT.

ONCE ALBERTO TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE 24-36H TIME FRAME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL... BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 25.3N 87.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 87.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 27.9N 85.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 28.7N 84.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 30.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z 40.0N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0000Z 46.0N 52.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[CHRISTY]

so some strengthing is possible....

[HurricaneHunter914]

OMG they are actually giving "Alberto" a better chance at strengthening? That is very suprising; its barely a TS now. (I'll put parenthesis in Alberto's name until I think it deserves to be called a TS)