Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
IS A VERY WELL DEFINED WAVE FOR EARLY IN THE SEASON DEPICTED
WITH AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N45W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


8 PM Discussion about this tropical wave.

[Extremeweatherguy]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
IS A VERY WELL DEFINED WAVE FOR EARLY IN THE SEASON DEPICTED
WITH AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N45W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


8 PM Discussion about this tropical wave.

If this thing can get going out in the Carrib. it will have a much better chance of intensifying than Alberto. I think we need to watch Carefully. Beryl may be less than a week away.

[Opal storm]

Is this wave expected to develop or just chug along.

It could develop once it reaches the NW Carrib. or Gulf of Mexico. This means another active late week/weekend could be in store. We shall see. JB is mentioning a "pulse of activity" in the western Gulf starting late next week/next weekend...we shall see.

Keep in mind: JB called the current system well in advance.

Is the shear in the Gulf/NW Carib that has been killing Alberto expected to lighten up by the time this wave gets there? (IF it gets there)

[HURAKAN]

Visible imagery this afternoon displayed a small circulation to the west of the wave. It didn't last long, but this wave is pretty healthy, and yes, it is approaching a significant drop in shear. I think we'll have some more (welcome) rain midweek, but also probably a wind surge. When it reaches the western caribbean or epac, who knows?

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[CHRISTY]

here a IR pic of the wave close to the islands.

[cycloneye]

here a IR pic of the wave close to the islands.

Well Christy is not that close yet. Is around 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles as I type this.

[rockyman]

2 questions:

Q: Where along this wave should we watch for a low forming...I'm thinking the leading southern end...but I'm not sure.

Q: At what point (if ever) does everyone think the global models might "pick up" on something forming from this system?

[canegrl04]

The wave has plenty of time to get it's act together. This one,if it becomes Beryl could be our first hurricane

[cycloneye]

I think that if not at 10:30 PM's Tropical Weather Outlook tommorow NHC will start mentioning it.

[abajan]

I usually pay little attention to anything east of Barbados and the Windward Islands before about mid to late July but that wave looks pretty "good" right now.

After all the mayhem, including lost of life, last year, with storms popping like popcorn, I was really hoping for a breather this year.

Next year, the West Indies will be hosting a major sporting event, namely the Cricket World Cup. Hundreds of millions (perhaps billions) of dollars in contstruction and renovations of stadia and upgrading to infrastructure are ongoing throughout the region and a significant impact by a hurricane on any one of the match venues will surely put damper on things (to put it lightly). Additionally, in December this year Barbados is hosting the World Cup of Golf. So the stakes for this region are high, so to speak.

[cycloneye]

LSU Image of Wave



Another image of wave above.

[spinfan4eva]

Hmm, if this happens, we would have 2 named storms in June.... If ya Double that for july to give us a total of 6NS before we even enter August.

[canegrl04]

It looks like a comma with that swirl tail.That is a sign of a tropical depression in early stage of development ,am I correct?

[rockyman]

Really, Luis...that soon? This one looks like it will cross the Caribbean and not recurve....

['CaneFreak]

[quote="rockyman"]2 questions:

Q: Where along this wave should we watch for a low forming...I'm thinking the leading southern end...but I'm not sure.

Q: At what point (if ever) does everyone think the global models might "pick up" on something forming from this system?[/quote]

Rockyman, I think the actual center is right on the longitudnal line that runs throught the center of the image on the southern end....wave is increasing its showers and thunderstorms and is trying to develop a CDO slowly....could be a depression in a couple of days at the rate its developing now...could be a nice hurricane...

[brunota2003]

I see an upside down "V" and its only June...maybe showing into this seasons future? I hope not...

[Cyclenall]

I see an upside down "V" and its only June...maybe showing into this seasons future? I hope not...

This has Emily written all over it. It strongly reminds me of Hurricane Emily from last year for some reason. If this does start to form into something, then everyone who said this won't be a early season should re-think.

[canegrl04]

Last year,Arlene started out much the same way as Alberto and wound up crossing the Fl. panhandle as a TS. That surely is an ominous sign for the rest of the season

[cajungal]

Nothing to worry about yet, but it may be the next interesting topic to discuss. I have another bad feeling about this hurricane season just as I did last year. Buckle your seat belts because it is going to be another bumpy ride!

[Hurricanebob]

Hey Cycloneye, what radar do you use for PR? I need to update...

Isn't it a little early for the trade winds to be so strong? Perhaps I'm just a little rusty and forgot.

I did find this one in my folder http://stormcarib.com/

bob