Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Alberto's name is at NRL.Let's wait for the first advisorie on the first tropical Storm of the season.

[JonathanBelles]

will the nhc do an intermediate?

[NYCHurr06]

NHC will only issue an intermediate advisory if watches/warnings are issued for the FL coast.

[cycloneye]

At 10 AM CDT will be the advisorie.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on June 11, 2006

...Depression becomes first named storm of the 2006 season...
Interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression One has strengthened into a
tropical storm.

At 1000 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 23.9 north...longitude 88.1 west or about 400
miles...645 km...west of Key West Florida and about 445 miles...715
km...south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida.

Alberto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
a turn toward the north and northeast is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
to the east of the center.

The Air Force aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure
of 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Alberto is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches over the western half of Cuba...with isolated
totals of 30 inches over the higher terrain. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall
amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible over the Florida Keys and
the Florida Peninsula through Monday.

Repeating the 1000 am CDT position...23.9 N...88.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Alberto Forecast/Advisory Number 6

Statement as of 15:00Z on June 11, 2006

interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.

Tropical storm center located near 23.9n 88.1w at 11/1500z
position accurate within 40 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1004 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt.......150ne 150se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas..250ne 250se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 23.9n 88.1w at 11/1500z
at 11/1200z center was located near 23.6n 87.9w

forecast valid 12/0000z 24.9n 88.7w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...150ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 12/1200z 26.0n 87.8w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...150ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 13/0000z 27.3n 85.8w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...150ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 13/1200z 28.5n 83.5w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...100ne 100se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 14/1200z 32.0n 77.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 15/1200z 39.0n 67.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Outlook valid 16/1200z 46.0n 54.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 23.9n 88.1w

next advisory at 11/2100z

forecaster Pasch

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 11, 2006

The Air Force hurricane hunters measured a 1400-ft flight-level wind
of 51 kt in a band of strong winds well to the east-northeast of
the center. There was a 1200 UTC ship report of 33 kt in that same
area. Based on these data...the system is being upgraded to a
tropical storm. Having said that...the satellite presentation of
the storm is not very impressive. Although the low-cloud center is
now fairly well-defined...strong southwesterly shear continues to
displace deep convection away from the center. Global models
predict this shear to increase...so not much additional
strengthening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast is
in good agreement with the latest SHIPS and GFDL model predictions.
The cyclone has moved a little farther to the west than earlier
predicted...however a more northward component of motion may now be
developing. Initial motion estimate is 320/8. A mid-level ridge
to the north of the storm is currently weakening and a trough is
forecast to amplify over the eastern United States during the next
couple of days. Therefore...if the tropical cyclone is able to
maintain at least a partially coherent vertical structure...it
would respond to this steering regime by turning toward the
northeast with some increase in forward speed during the next 48
hours. However...if Alberto becomes even more severely sheared...
it would more likely respond to shallow-level environmental flow
and remain in the Gulf of Mexico while weakening. This latter
scenario cannot be ruled out. The official forecast is similar
to...albeit slower than...the track prediction from the previous
package...and is very close to the consensus of the GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. Met...and NOGAPS model tracks.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later today.

Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 23.9n 88.1w 40 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 24.9n 88.7w 45 kt
24hr VT 12/1200z 26.0n 87.8w 45 kt
36hr VT 13/0000z 27.3n 85.8w 45 kt
48hr VT 13/1200z 28.5n 83.5w 45 kt
72hr VT 14/1200z 32.0n 77.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 15/1200z 39.0n 67.0w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 16/1200z 46.0n 54.0w 40 kt...extratropical

[seaswing]

When will NHC post TS warnings and watches?

[HURAKAN]

When will NHC post TS warnings and watches?

Later today. Look at the end of the discussion!!

[kenl01]

No it's weak. Central pressure is actually higher now at the TS advisory then when it was during its TD stage. 1004mb/29.65 now vs 1003mb/29.62 earlier. I see allot of shear and a disorganized system. I don't see any additional significant strengthening other than a weak/moderate TS.

[spinfan4eva]

Cuba's advisory

Warning of Tropical revolving storm. Center of Prognoses, INSMET. Date: 11 of June of 2006. Hour: 12:00 M. WARNING OF TROPICAL REVOLVING STORM Not 6. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. … The Tropical Storm forms Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico… The feeding bands that accompany the tropical organism by the Gulf of Mexico have continued producing numerous rains and showers and some electrical storms on the western region of Cuba, those that they have been strong and locally intense in Pine of the River, Island of Youth and the province of Havana, being this one the main danger of the weak tropical systems, as it is the case of the present one. In last the 24 hours the most significant reports have been in Pine of the River: Seco river 448 mm, San Juan and Martinez 281. mm, Weather station of Pine of River 224 mm, City of Pine of the River 196 mm. In the Island of Youth: 335 mm in Nueva Gerona, the Faith 253 mm and End of the East 194 mm. In the Province of Havana: Airport of San Antonio of the Baths 282 mm, Batabanó 170 mm, Guira de Melena 166 mm, City of Havana: Santiago of Vegas 146 mm. In last the six hours the most significant rains have happened in the Island of Youth and the province of Havana, with 130 mm in the Faith, 118 mm in Nueva Gerona and 109 mm in Guira de Melena. The Tropical Depression during the morning gained something in organization and intensity and became the Tropical Storm Alberto, first of the present cyclonal season. At noon its central region was considered the 24,1 degrees of North latitude and the 88,3 degrees of west longitude, position that locates it to about 420 kilometers to the Northwest of Cabo of San Antonio, western end of Cuba and to about 660 kilometers to the West of Key Bone in the peninsula of Florida. Alberto has maintained maximum winds of 75 kilometers per hour, with a central pressure of 1004 hPa and in the last hours she is had been moving towards the Northwest at the rate of 15 kilometers per hour. One foretells that in to 24 next the 12 hours the Tropical Storm will continue moving in a course next to the Northwest with equal speed of transfering, with little change in organization and intensity, inclining its trajectory gradually to the North and the Northeast. It is reiterated that rains can be strong and locally intense in the western region and are the most important factor of this meteorological situation. The next Warning of Tropical revolving storm will be emitted to six of afternoon of today.

[HURAKAN]

Who and how that was translated?

[spinfan4eva]

Who and how that was translated?

I copied it and pasted it into the google translator. Here is the advisory untranslated http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... &TB1=AVISO

[HURAKAN]

Who and how that was translated?

I copied it and pasted it into the google translator. Here is the advisory untranslated http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... &TB1=AVISO

I had already seen it!!

The problem that we always face when translating is that sometimes you have to find a word similar to the one you are translating because there's not a direct translation. That's why it seems funny when you read it but nevertheless, you get the idea. By the way, in the last 24 hours Río Seco in Pinar del Río has acumulated more than 17 inches of rain. Fortunately the entire island has being suffering from a horrible drough since a long time ago.

[cycloneye]

052
WTNT31 KNHC 112029
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8
WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$




208
WTNT21 KNHC 112029
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100Z SUN JUN 11 2006

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 87.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.8N 85.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 39.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 46.0N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 87.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH



Paul watch starts in your area.

211
WTNT41 KNHC 112031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AGAIN MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 50 KT...BUT IN A BAND THAT WAS EVEN
FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN IN THE EARLIER PASS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISPLACED
FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE AT THE MOMENT. BECAUSE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND DATA FROM THE NEXT MISSION OF THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS AROUND 0000 UTC COULD CONFIRM THIS
SUSPICION. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ALBERTO. EVEN
SO...THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE DO PREDICT SOME STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE LESS THAN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER.
THE FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED. ASSUMING THAT ALBERTO IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER VERTICALLY...A DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL...SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS FLORIDA. THE
GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT
SPREADS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A NON-TROPICAL-LOOKING AMPLIFICATION
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DIVERGENCE
IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN
BANDS AS MUCH AS 200 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH COULD REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON THIS
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 24.5N 87.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 25.4N 87.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 27.8N 85.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 77.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1800Z 39.0N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 46.0N 54.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Aquawind]

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Looks like this could end up being less than Bonnie.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Bonnie made landfall as a 40 mph TS right?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I think 50 mph.. Let me go check!