Tropical Storm Alberto

[Extremeweatherguy]

WxMan is there a possibility of the swirl getting left behind in the GOM since it won't feel the trough come through the north?

and if it is left behind is there a chance it could re-strengthen?

[beachbum_al]

I guess it is wait and see what happens when the 4pm report come out.

And HouTXmetro...No, you are not crazy.

[wxman57]

and if it is left behind is there a chance it could re-strengthen?

Not in the tremendous wind shear and dry air environment.

[gatorcane]

Not in the tremendous wind shear and dry air environment.

but there is a possibility then it could get left behind? Interesting...

[Stratosphere747]

The NHC has clearly stated that there was a possiblity of the trough missing the system, and with that most likely disapating....

[gatorcane]

The latest NWS radar out of Tampa shows the rain coverage off the west coast of Florida is shrinking and pulling away from the coast -

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... w&loop=yes

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thread has really quieted down recently. I remember a few days ago (before this was even TD1) we were getting responses every few seconds.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The rain will retuern I'm sure of it.

[wxman57]

Southwest winds aloft over the center are "only" 35 kts today. They go up to 50 kts tomorrow and even higher after that. If Alberto can't stand the current wind shear, it won't like what's coming.

[rxdoc]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

FLZ041-044-111930-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...SQUALLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF SQUALLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MONROE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEESBURG...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THIS BAND PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH AT THE SANFORD AIRPORT.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE MID FLORIDA LAKES...DE BARY...FRUITLAND PARK AND LAKE GEORGE.

This squall line just moved through between Mt. Dora and Eustis. Looked like a dust storm, followed by a very brief heavy shower. Reminded me that I needed to move objects capable of flying inside (like my wheelbarrow that was tossed 30 feet down my driveway).

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Some convection is trying to get near the center. It looks like Alberto is trying to get more organized.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO (AL012006) ON 20060611 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060611 1800 060612 0600 060612 1800 060613 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 87.7W 26.1N 87.0W 27.7N 85.6W 29.0N 83.0W
BAMM 24.2N 87.7W 25.5N 87.9W 26.2N 88.0W 26.2N 87.7W
A98E 24.2N 87.7W 25.2N 86.9W 26.0N 86.1W 27.6N 83.3W
LBAR 24.2N 87.7W 25.6N 87.5W 27.3N 86.9W 28.9N 85.2W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060613 1800 060614 1800 060615 1800 060616 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 79.5W 35.7N 69.6W 43.9N 54.8W 49.0N 37.3W
BAMM 26.4N 87.5W 28.2N 86.1W 28.9N 81.0W 29.0N 74.9W
A98E 28.9N 81.1W 32.5N 74.2W 38.1N 61.4W 44.6N 40.7W
LBAR 30.2N 82.4W 35.0N 75.1W 43.4N 61.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 57KTS 56KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 44KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 87.7W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 85.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




Graphic of 18:00z Models



Above are the plots and graphic of the 18:00z run of the tropical models.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Is it just me or does the NHC's track look a little more south.

[TampaFl]

Looks as thought the low level center may be starting to move (drift?)to the nne or ne. Hard to tell though. Thoughts and comments welcomed.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?keywest&type=vis



Robert

[28_Storms]

dship 54 kts wow

[stormtruth]

and if it is left behind is there a chance it could re-strengthen?

Not in the tremendous wind shear and dry air environment.

What if it starting moving south and then looping back

[Ivanhater]

new nogaps show a landfall around Pensacola, lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/nogaps ... /slp13.png



*edited by staff to make link clickable - image too large

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

What about eastern seaboard impacts? If the center stays offshore that probably means little rain, right? Since most of the convection is well east of the center...

[HurricaneGirl]

Were starting to get some interesting clouds around here.

[The_OD_42]

Looks as thought the low level center may be starting to move (drift?)to the nne or ne. Hard to tell though. Thoughts and comments welcomed.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?keywest&type=vis



Robert

It does sort of look like that, yes. Perhaps it will start to drift E then a NE track...maybe?